It’s an interesting time to be a Los Angeles Lakers fan. As recently as a few weeks ago, the team looked destined for a Western Conference Finals rematch with the Denver Nuggets — one that looked particularly advantageous given Jamal Murray’s torn ACL. Now? The team seems likely to end up in the play-in tournament. Here’s how Basketball-Reference sees the seeding playing out:
5-seed: 1.9 percent chance
6-seed: 23.6 percent
7-seed: 41.6 percent
8-seed: 18.5 percent
While things are a bit precarious, the entire basketball world knows that IF LeBron James and Anthony Davis can get back to 90-plus percent of themselves by playoff time, Los Angeles remains one of the top championship favorites.
The Los Angeles Lakers title run figures to be especially challenging. In order to repeat, the team’s superstars may need to limit their mid-range attempts.
WAIT! Before you stop reading, this isn’t another essay about how “three is greater than two”, the mid-range is dead, and the analytics are always right. By this point, everyone knows the shortcomings of the mid-range when it comes to efficiency, but for some players, they actually are efficient shots. Chris Paul, for instance, is shooting 50.4 percent on 5.4 mid-range attempts per game this season. Should he really stop taking them?
That said, the mid-range isn’t for everyone, and it’s worth exploring just how much LeBron James and Anthony Davis should be embracing it. And should they be allocating some of these shots to the 3-point line instead?
This season, 29 players — LeBron and Davis among them — have averaged at three mid-range and two 3-point shot attempts per game. How does the Lakers duo compare? (click on chart to see every “dot”).
LeBron James
LeBron James is shooting 36.9 percent on 3.3 mid-range shots per game this season. James’ mid-range game — particularly his fadeaway — is beautiful when he gets it going, but he’s simply not been efficient from this area of the floor. Among the 29 players, LeBron is the third-worst in field goal percentage.
Is this just a blip driven by small sample size, or has LeBron struggled from the mid-range the last few years as well? Last season, 31 players averaged at least three mid-range attempts, and James only hit 34.3 percent of them — the worst mark of the entire group. Before this? LeBron was a bit better, shooting 43.1 percent in 2018-19 and 38.9 percent in 2017-18. He’s been no Chris Paul, however.
Even if these shots have been inefficient, how much damage can roughly three shots per game really do? Maybe not that much, but every shot is valuable, and there might be better alternatives. Of the 29 players, only one — Julius Randle — is actually shooting a better percentage from three than the midrange (41.7, 40.8), but some aren’t too far off.
Seven of the 29 are shooting <= 2.0 percent better from the mid-range than they are from downtown.
LeBron James: 35.5 percent from three, 36.9 percent from mid-range
Gordon Hayward: 41.5, 42.3
Jamal Murray: 41.0, 42.2
D’Angelo Russell: 39.3, 41.1
Jayson Tatum: 38.5, 39.3
John Wall: 31.7, 31.7
As any “analytics nerd” will tell you, threes are more valuable than two’s even when the mid-range shots go in at a higher rate (e.g. 33.3 percent on threes is better than 40.0 percent on two’s). But when these shots go in at roughly equal rates, it becomes REALLY hard to tune out the math.
LeBron is already taking a career-high 6.4 threes per game this season, but given his mid-range struggles, perhaps he should embrace the long-ball even more.
Anthony Davis
Remember last year, when Anthony Davis turned into a mid-range assassin for the Lakers in the playoffs? Davis started the postseason hitting an absurd 25-41 (61.0 percent) of his mid-range attempts. While he cooled off a bit, he still hit 49.6 percent (5.5 attempts per game) in the playoffs, a clip few players have been able to match this regular season.
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In 2020-21, Davis has been subpar from this area of the floor, making only 36.3 percent — the 2nd-worst rate of the 29. Perhaps this shouldn’t be overly surprising. Despite his improvement last postseason, the forward only hit 34.9 percent over the entirety of last season (including playoffs). Before this, he shot only 35.5 percent in 2018-19 and 36.4 percent in 2017-18.
While it makes sense for many players struggling from the mid-range — like LeBron — to simply reallocate some shots to the 3-point line, but it’s not clear this is the optimal solution for Davis.
Among 219 players (min. 30 games) that have averaged at least two 3-point attempts this season, only two are shooting worse from downtown than Davis’ 28.6 percent. While the 9-year veteran is a better shooter than this number suggests (33.0 percent a year ago), he’s never proven himself to be a reliable long-range threat.
So what’s the solution? Players can’t simply “attack the basket” on every possession. This takes a physical toll, particularly when defenses are sending help in the paint. Still, it’s worth remembering the obvious: Davis — and LeBron for that matter — are both elite interior scorers.
Among 60 players averaging at least 4.9 shots per game within five feet of the basket, here are the five most efficient scorers this season.
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo: (78.0 percent, 9.6 attempts per game)
2. LeBron James: (74.0, 6.5)
3. Mason Plumlee: (73.7, 5.0)
4. Anthony Davis: (73.2, 4.9)
5. Rudy Gobert: (72.3, 7.5)
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are superstars for a reason. Even if they don’t start hitting mid-range shots, they will still be incredibly impactful on the court. And it shouldn’t be overly surprising if one or both manages to flip a switch and improve from this area once the playoffs start for the Los Angeles Lakers.
(Credit to NBA.com and basketball-reference for statistics and House of Highlights for GIF)