Phoenix Suns: 2018 NBA Draft Lottery odds

Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images
Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images /
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The Phoenix Suns have the best odds at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery, but will Lady Luck finally give them a break?

In 50 years as an NBA franchise, the Phoenix Suns have never won a championship and they’ve never selected first overall in the draft. Coming off arguably the worst season in franchise history, it’s safe to say they’d really appreciate it if Lady Luck chose 2018 as the year she stopped being a stone cold b***h.

If that sounds a bit dire, it’s only because the Suns — coming off their worst season since their inaugural year, not to mention an eight-year playoff drought — are facing the most important offseason in their 50-year history.

The team already nailed its head coaching hire, which was step one. But with 21-year-old superstar Devin Booker eligible for a contract extension, the Suns owning the best odds at the No. 1 overall pick, gaping holes throughout the roster and a decent amount of cap space at their disposal, it’s time for general manager McDonough to start accelerating “The Timeline.”

After finishing the 2017-18 campaign with a league-worst 21-61 record, the Suns cannot fall out of the top four selections. Here’s how their odds shake out pick-by-pick:

  • 1st:  25.0%
  • 2nd:  21.5%
  • 3rd:  17.7%
  • 4th:  35.8%

Overall, Phoenix has a 64.2 percent chance of staying in the top three, but individually, its odds of falling to No. 4 are the highest, at 35.8 percent. That undesirable outcome would hardly be a surprising sight for Suns fans, who had to watch the team fall from the second-best odds in last year’s draft lottery to No. 4.

McDonough landed Josh Jackson at No. 4, marking the fifth time the franchise had selected at that spot. The Suns took Dragan Bender at No. 4 the year before, also taking Corky Calhoun (1972), John Shumate (1974) and Alvan Adams (1975) there in years past.

Phoenix has earned the No. 2 overall pick just twice, the most infamous of which came in 1969, when the team lost the coin flip for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and had to settle for Neal Walk. It also selected Armen Gilliam second overall in 1987, just missing out on David Robinson.

The Suns have never selected first or third overall.

Given the odds and their draft lottery luck, no one would be surprised to see the rebuilding Suns fall to No. 4 on Tuesday. However, should Lady Luck finally respond to one of their desperate 2 a.m. “U up?” texts for the first time in 50 years, they’ll get a chance at a franchise-altering talent, particularly in one of the top two spots.

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The projected gems of this year’s draft class are Luka Doncic and DeAndre Ayton, either of which would have strong ties to the organization and would also represent great fits on the roster.

Doncic is the 19-year-old star of Real Madrid who’s putting up unprecedented numbers for his age in the second-best basketball league in the world. His time playing for Team Slovenia under new Suns head coach Igor Kokoskov shows this team would be able to get the best out of him and make life easier on the phenom rookie.

Doncic would also be a tremendous fit alongside Devin Booker in the backcourt, even though his size (6’7″) suggests his position to be that of a wing more than a potential franchise point guard.

Ayton’s time at the University of Arizona would quickly make him a hometown hero in Phoenix, and his incredible build makes him a perfect fit for one of the team’s biggest positions of need at center. The seven-footer projects to be an offensive force, though his ability to anchor an NBA defense is more than suspect at this point.

If the Suns land the No. 1 pick for the first time ever, there will be an undeniable amount of pressure for McDonough to nail the selection — not only for the sake of his job and the ongoing youth movement that needs to start showing signs of life, but also with 50 years of falling short in both the draft lottery and the playoffs as context.

If the Suns fall to No. 2, some of that pressure is alleviated, as they’ll most likely take whoever’s left between Ayton and Doncic. Fall to No. 3 or No. 4 and a depressing narrative continues its unending cycle.

Next: Full two-round 2018 NBA Mock Draft

Suns fans won’t have to wait much longer to find out whether Lady Luck has finally decided to give them the time of day, with the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery taking place on Tuesday night in Chicago.