2018 NBA Draft: The case for Mitchell Robinson in the lottery

More and more prospects are beginning to declare for the 2018 NBA Draft, but Mitchell Robinson has been getting ready since before the college season.

The potential 2018 NBA Draft big man class was hyped before a single minute of college ball was played. During those times, Mitchell Robinson was very much a part of the discussion. He was applauded for going to a smaller school in Western Kentucky. Analysts and writers theorized about whether he could lead them to the NCAA Tournament. Then Robinson took a few U-turns, ultimately leaving college basketball behind for good.

Robinson decided to spend what would’ve been his freshman year getting better for the NBA. He’s been training ever since Dallas, determined to show a year off doesn’t leave him as an unappealing prospect.

His decision to not play college ball definitely hurt his draft stock. There’s a lot of power in visibility. Robinson gave up most of that when he packed his bags ahead of several long months away from games on television with scouts in attendance. However, maybe we’re just not as aware of his game or the prospect he was in high school.

Robinson is an athletic, rim-running big, standing around 7’1″. He has an enormous wingspan, though not on the same level as Mohamed Bamba. A McDonald’s All-American, Robinson has also made the coveted Jordan Brand classic and played for USA Basketball. Robinson has the highest Player Efficiency Rating of all time on Nike’s EYBL AAU circuit. He’s no slouch. He has legitimate rim-protecting upside and even some touch on his jump shot.

With that being said, you can make a lot of the same argument for Robinson that’s been made for Michael Porter Jr. As exhibited by his accolades, Robinson is well known. He also has a very projectable role as a center that can protect the rim and be a lob threat. Whether Robinson has added or will add anything else to his game is gravy. He’s an NBA player.

The main difference between Robinson and Porter is that not only did Porter go to college, but he went the opposite way and over extended himself to show his selflessness and play. Whether that was a good call by Porter is neither here nor there.

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Now, Robinson isn’t just a slightly shorter Mohamed Bamba and some of the concerns for him remain too. Robinson needs to get stronger everywhere, particularly in his lower body. He doesn’t defend well in space and there are questions about his feel, not to mention his jumper isn’t a slam dunk either.

The biggest question around Robinson, though, is one he’ll have to face repeatedly in the pre-draft process. Sadly, it’ll be about his mental toughness and commitment. Whether the Western Kentucky debacle was more on the school or the NCAA, he still has to answer and explain that decision. Teams may worry about whether he can handle the league if he walked away from that.

Robinson told ESPN he knows he has to kill workouts. He knows what’s at stake and what he has to answer. Still, even with as strong of a lottery as we may have, after the top 10 or so guys, you’re not going to find anyone with Robinson’s upside. You can get 75 percent or more of Mohamed Bamba’s ability 5-10 picks later. Sure it comes with risk, but it’s not like higher guys like Porter and Trae Young, and almost every other pick, are devoid of risk.

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If Robinson doesn’t show any major red flags, he’s still got a great case as a lottery pick. If I had to make a prediction, I’d say he goes in the 15-30 range with NBA teams higher up nervous about picking a guy who essentially sat for a year. However, don’t be surprised if teams regret not taking him.