March Madness viewing and the 2018 NBA Draft

Just a bit of advice to keep in mind about watching March Madness in context with the 2018 NBA Draft and drafts to come in the future.

The NCAA Tournament is amazing for a lot of reasons. It seems every year is full of upsets without a drop-off. This is in large part because the skill gap is shrinking due to the one-and-done craze. In March, heart and luck matter far more than skill. Just ask the countless first round picks already at home declaring for the NBA Draft.

March Madness is great for the above reasons and more, but there’s a bit of caution that should come with it. A lot of fans like to watch the tournament for the craziness and pandemonium. Others are in it mostly for the NBA prospects and future stars.

This article isn’t to take away from that second line of fandom or viewing. It’s more of a disclaimer on how we should view and contextualize the performance of top prospects in March.

So with that, let’s reel off two important pieces of advice for watching NBA prospects in the NCAA Tournament. Do with it what you will.

1. Stop overreacting to March Madness runs of extraordinary form

This is the biggest point to make because I’ve fallen for this plenty in the past. When you see a player go on a run like Buddy Hield did, you want to root for him. That’s especially true because Hield is such a likable guy. However, despite all his clutch shooting, underneath Hield was still incredibly flawed as a prospect. He wasn’t a great athlete, lacked elite speed, couldn’t create separation and his passing was so-so.

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With all that in mind, his ceiling seemed probably like a low-end starter or a high-end sixth man. That’s exactly how he’s played in Sacramento. Hindsight is 20-20 for a reason, but we can learn from examples like Hield to not get carried away. Trey Burke is another example, though he’s carving out a solid backup point guard role now. Burke also lacked that top-notch athleticism and separation.

If a really good player, who isn’t very flawed, absolutely goes off in March and things line up with his skill-set, sure. Buy the hype.

This isn’t to say to stop falling in love with the darlings of March Madness. They’re dope. Keep doing that. But when it comes to NBA projection, we sadly have to stop some of the fun. Our heroes in March are usually fairly flawed through an NBA lens. It’s a buzzkill, but these notes are more for draft and NBA fans than the casual NCAA ones. So let’s put this into context for some of the players on great runs in March and stop some overreactions.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a great prospect, and he might even belong in the lottery. He’s not better than Trae Young. Kevin Knox’s jumper has looked good, but Paul George is not his ceiling. Mikal Bridges is seemingly hitting every clutch shot and playing lockdown defense; he’s not the next Kawhi Leonard. We can go on, but you get the point. This notion leads well into “`a second and final point on this subject.

2. Compare players’ performances to what they’re already capable of

If you see a prospect do something you haven’t seen them do before in March, there’s two likely reasons why. Either you didn’t watch or read enough on them, or it’s an anomaly. If they haven’t shown it in the 30+ games and years prior, it shouldn’t be seen as a consistent part of their game.

Let’s say Knox or Bridges hits an insane crossover, fadeaway jumper, maybe while the shot clock was winding down. Sometimes shots just go in. If that combination of elite ball-handling and shot-making didn’t come up over 30+ games, they probably just made a good shot. It’s not necessarily in their repertoire yet. Don’t mistake this point for saying players will never learn those skills.

Just look at Jayson Tatum and his jump shot. That’s a skill that developed after his college career.  Just because said player can’t do something in college doesn’t mean he’ll never improve. We’re just talking about what they can do up to this present point in their career.

So if you see Zhaire Smith make an unbelievable pass, think back to what his reputation and skill-set has already been. Don’t begin calling him a point-wing. Make a note that Smith has shown flashes of passing throughout the season, so this could be a continued sign that he has legitimate passing upside.

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If Marvin Bagley III makes a good rotation in a tournament game, don’t jump the gun and say, “See? He’s a good defender.” Given the fact that he’s been inconsistent as a help defender, it’s better to acknowledge that in time, and with the right coaching, Bagley can make improvements. It’s good to see them in action, but we have to remember these players holistically.