Houston Rockets: Favorable first round playoff opponents
With the Rockets being at least a top two seed in the Western Conference, who are the potential playoff opponents they want to play in the first round?
The Houston Rockets currently own the best record in the NBA, and are going to finish as a top-two seed in the Western Conference. Currently, Houston is up two games on the Golden State Warriors, but with the Rockets also owning the head-to-head tiebreaker, that really becomes a 2.5-game lead.
Although the Warriors have the easiest remaining schedule in the league (including three games against the Phoenix Suns), the Rockets have shown a strong desire and ability to fight for that No. 1 seed.
Simply put, for better or worse, the Rockets will make sure they have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. However, the rest of the playoff race in the conference is a madhouse of teams fighting to secure home-court advantage in the first round or simply get in the playoffs at all. As things currently stand, just two games separate the fourth seed from ninth place! Nearly every night you can check the standings and they’ll be different from the night before.
Therefore, it makes it difficult to predict who the Rockets could face in the first round of the playoffs, but for the sake of simplicity, let’s focus on the teams Houston would be happy to face there.
For what it’s worth, FiveThirtyEight currently projects the Rockets to finish as the 1-seed and face the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round. With that being said, let’s look at some desired matchups for Houston in the first round.
Denver Nuggets
FiveThirtyEight only gives the Denver Nuggets a 32 percent chance of getting into the playoffs, but they are just one game behind the seventh seeded Clippers. However, Denver doesn’t own the tiebreaker against Los Angeles or the Utah Jazz, making it harder to sneak in. The Western Conference has been so crazy that it’s hard to count anything out.
Among potential playoff opponents, the Rockets have had the most success against Denver, as they have comfortably beaten them in all three matchups the two teams played this season. The first two games were blowouts, with the Rockets winning 125-95 and 130-104, respectively.
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Houston just ran the pick-and-roll to death against Denver and Nikola Jokic, exposing his poor defensive abilities. Clint Capela was able to have his best game of the season against Denver, posting 23 points and 25 rebounds in their second head-to-head.
While Denver has a high-powered offense (sixth in the league), they also have the 21st-ranked defense, which simply isn’t good enough to challenge the Rockets and their league-leading, historic offense. The Rockets would be able to have their way on offense against Denver, and have enough physical defenders to throw at Denver’s best secondary offensive options, whether that be Jamal Murray, Gary Harris or Paul Millsap. If the two were to meet in the playoffs, it would likely result in a Rockets sweep.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Although FiveThirtyEight projects the Minnesota Timberwolves to finish fourth in the West, they are currently in the sixth seed and just 1.5 games ahead of the eighth seed. Anything can happen in the West, especially as they try and navigate without Jimmy Butler.
The Wolves are a similar matchup for the Rockets in that they have an elite offense (fourth in the league) but very poor defense (24th in the league), making them an ideal playoff opponent for Houston.
The Rockets have won the first three meetings against Minnesota this season, with the first two of them being very comfortable games for Houston (116-98 and 126-108, respectively). The Rockets focus on attacking Karl-Anthony Towns, who can struggle mightily at times on the defensive end. Houston has had incredible success beyond the arc against Minnesota, as they shot 43.6 percent and 46.8 percent in the two contests.
Houston’s spread pick-and-roll simply presents too much of a problem for Minnesota’s defense, while the Rockets can throw several quality wing defenders at Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins. While Towns has had success against the Rockets this season, Houston will accept that if they can shut down the other offensive threats for the Timberwolves.
Honorary mention: Los Angeles Clippers
Yes, the Rockets have lost two of the first three matchups against the Clippers this season (with the fourth and final game between the two teams coming later this week).
However, how entertaining would a playoff series between these two teams be? Chris Paul going up against his old team? All of the tension between select Rockets and Clippers players? This series would have everything, from on-court performances (imagine Lou Williams and James Harden putting up dual 40-point games) to narratives and off-the-court antics.
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The Clippers have the seventh-ranked offense and 16th-ranked defense, which makes them more of an even matchup for Houston, and a team that is less exploitable than the two others mentioned earlier. While the Rockets would likely win the series fairly quickly, the Clippers won’t go down without a fight, and viewers will be entertained both on and off the court in such a series.