The Milwaukee Bucks are 2-5 since the All-Star Break and have fallen to seventh in the Eastern Conference. It could be that their slide is not a bad thing.
The Milwaukee Bucks recently faced a difficult stretch of their schedule, five straight games against the teams in direct contention with them for the Eastern Conference playoffs. The result was not what the Bucks were hoping for.
A 92-89 loss Monday night to the Indiana Pacers was their fourth loss in the busy five-game week, all against potential Eastern Conference playoff foes. Indiana won twice against Milwaukee over that stretch, claiming the season series 3-1, with the one loss coming when Victor Oladipo sat.
The Bucks also lost to the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards, their lone win coming on the back of a monstrous comeback Sunday against the Philadelphia 76ers. The team is just 2-5 since the All-Star Break, and Monday slid to eighth in the Eastern Conference standings before a Miami loss Tuesday bumped them back to seventh.
Last week, we wrote here on Hoops Habit how Milwaukee had been a successful team in the clutch this season, but could find even more success by putting the ball in the hands of Giannis Antetokounmpo late in games. The Bucks did just that in a number of close contests this past week, and Antetokounmpo was 0-for-4 on potential game-winning or tying shots.
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The poor clutch performance is something the team should analyze, but it also suggests the team didn’t play so poorly as a 1-4 record suggests. They lost by three points two different times, and by seven in another game. Prior to their Eastern Conference run they fell by just two points in overtime to the scorching New Orleans Pelicans.
Clutch games are generally a coin flip, and if a shot here or there goes their way, the Bucks could be 5-2 since the break and tied for fourth in the East. The standings are so tight, and these game results so close, that one shot rimming out or a ball bouncing this way or that could decide playoff seeding.
Milwaukee’s other challenge over the past few games has been their defense. They are still playing at a much higher level than earlier in the season, with interim head coach Joe Prunty toning down the aggressive traps and allowing talented Milwaukee defenders to make plays in space.
However, bad habits from the Jason Kidd era are still plaguing this team. That is only natural, as many of these players have spent multiple seasons racing around the floor aiming for aggressive defense and ending up with gaping holes. In the Bucks’ loss to the Pacers, those deeply-instilled instincts were giving up open shots.
Victor Oladipo with the nutmeg, Bojan Bogdanovic with the 3⃣ pic.twitter.com/Phb3fYMGNa
— Def Pen Hoops (@DefPenHoops) March 6, 2018
In this Victor Oladipo highlight play from Monday night, multiple Bucks are caught out of position as Indiana runs a pick-and-roll. Under the new scheme, Thon Maker, guarding the roll man, should be dropping back to slow down Oladipo’s attack. But he steps up level with the screen and gets caught behind the play when Dipo bursts through the opening created.
Even with the penetration, the Bucks should not collapse every other defender on the team into the paint. That leaves open shooters on both sides for Oladipo to choose from. He goes for the sharpshooting Bojan Bogdanovic, adding some flair on the pass to get it to its target.
The hidden reality of Milwaukee’s fall is that dropping to eighth in the Eastern Conference may not be the worst fate for them. Generally a late-season tumble down the standings spells doom for a team. In the Western Conference, a 2-6 stretch would be enough to drop you to 10th this season.
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Luckily for the Bucks, they play in the Eastern Conference, and the challengers for the postseason are almost certainly in place. The Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons are too far back to realistically make any noise; FiveThirtyEight gives just an 11 percent chance for either of those teams make it. The eight teams currently in playoff positioning each have at least a 95 percent chance of making the postseason.
So the extreme downside of missing the playoffs is gone, as long as Milwaukee doesn’t continue its free-fall. They also won’t have a juggernaut waiting for them in round one. For teams in the Western Conference, falling to eighth would mean a date with either Houston or Golden State — both terrifying prospects.
But in the East, as good as the Toronto Raptors have been, they still have to prove their new-look offense can hum in the playoffs. Last season, the Bucks felt in control of their series with the Raptors through three and four games, and this year’s team has a healthy Jabari Parker and Eric Bledsoe.
In three meetings this season, the Bucks have one win and another overtime loss to the Raptors (and one blowout loss). They have found ways to have success against Toronto, from leveraging their defensive length to forcing Toronto to find someone to guard Antetokounmpo. They feel confident in how they match up with Toronto.
By finishing eighth, the Bucks would also be on the opposite side of the bracket from LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Assuming the Cavs end up third, the Bucks can avoid LeBron until the conference championship — and perhaps avoid him altogether if the Boston Celtics pull off an upset. Whatever Cleveland’s woes this season, LeBron James has led his team to the NBA Finals in seven straight seasons, and doubting him could prove fatal.
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The Bucks need to identify and fix what ails them, and they need to do so quickly. Ultimately though, falling down the standings could turn out to be a good thing, a turning point for the team and an opportunity moving forward.