Milwaukee Bucks: Next week could decide playoff standings

The Milwaukee Bucks are in a tight race for playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference. Their next week of games could decide who they play in April.

The Milwaukee Bucks are right where they have been all season: In the thick of a tight race for positioning in the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bucks are 33-26, sixth in the Eastern Conference standings and within arm’s length of five other teams.

If analysts zoom in slightly, the Bucks are in the best stretch of their season. Over the last 14 games — the period of their season since Jason Kidd was fired as head coach — the Bucks are 10-4, the best mark in the Eastern Conference outside of Toronto during that time.

Even with such a strong surge, Milwaukee is still on the outside looking in for a top-four finish and the opportunity to host a playoff series. As with most teams, the Bucks play much better at home, and opening a playoff series at home for the first time in over 15 years would be a major accomplishment.

The easiest way to that goal is to simply win more games than the other teams around them, and the Bucks will certainly aim for that goal. But as the season moves on and the middle of the East stays tightly packed, it becomes increasingly likely that the Bucks could find themselves tied with another team.

This makes potential tiebreakers very important, as they could mean the difference between playing the first two games of the postseason in Milwaukee or in Washington, or Philadelphia, or Indiana.

FiveThirtyEight’s CARM-Elo NBA predictions project the Bucks to finish 46-36, tied with Washington and one game back of Philadelphia in fourth. Indiana is projected at 44-38, and Miami at 43-39. With things so tight, how can the Bucks secure those tiebreakers? By winning their next handful of games.

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In the next week, the Bucks will play five straight games against potential Eastern Conference playoff foes. That run will begin Tuesday night on TNT, when Milwaukee hosts the Washington Wizards. Then they play at Detroit, at home against Indiana and Philadelphia, and finally travel to Indianapolis on Monday.

The Washington Wizards currently stand at 35-25, 1.5 games up on the Bucks for the fourth and final “home-court advantage” spot in the standings. Pegged with the second-hardest remaining schedule in the league per NBA Tankathon, Washington could easily fall back into a tie with the Bucks by season’s end.

Through three matchups thus far, the Bucks hold a 2-1 advantage, including a sweep of both games in D.C. Win and the Bucks secure the tiebreaker over the Wizards; lose and they finish 2-2, potentially lifting the advantage from the Bucks’ grasp.

This will be the Wizards’ fourth game since the All-Star break, one more than the Bucks, although Milwaukee has played in two overtime games to partially even things out. The Bucks are rightfully favored, but this is a game that could easily go to either team. With plenty on the line, a win would be a huge boon to Milwaukee’s season.

After the game, the Bucks will immediately fly to Detroit, where they will face the Pistons for the first time since they acquired Blake Griffin. It has been over two months since the teams last played, with all three of their previous matchups coming before Dec 6.

Milwaukee holds the 2-1 series edge, and a loss to the Pistons Wednesday would even things out. But with Detroit 5.5 games back of Milwaukee and projected for just 37 total wins, the odds of a tiebreaker coming into effect are slim. Even so, if things slip for the Bucks down the stretch, holding a tiebreaker over the Pistons could ensure they don’t miss out on the playoffs altogether. It also ensures the Bucks continue to make up ground for the 4-seed.

Milwaukee’s two-game homestand begins Friday against the Indiana Pacers, and then Monday the Bucks will finish the home-and-away in Indianapolis. The Bucks’ divisional foe is currently a half-game up, meaning two games in four nights could swing the race significantly.

Indiana’s remaining schedule is the fourth-hardest in the league, so if Milwaukee emerges with a series lead after Monday, the race could effectively be over. That would also mean that the season series, currently tied 1-1, would be Milwaukee’s to claim.

Although Washington and Philadelphia are both stronger teams according to the metrics, Indiana destroyed the Bucks when the two teams met in early January. Oladipo, who missed the team’s other matchup, was a two-way monster in that game. Including that victory, the Pacers are 14-7 since their last meeting.

The final game in this stretch will be Sunday, March 4 on ESPN, where the East’s two standout young cores face off with playoff positioning on the line. This is the only season series the Bucks will not conclude during the next week, with one final matchup scheduled in Philadelphia for the final night of the season.

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The Bucks are currently one win ahead of the 76ers in the standings, who lost to the Wizards Sunday to end a seven-game winning streak. But Philly has the easiest remaining schedule in the league, per NBA Tankathon, with just three games left all season against teams projected to finish in the top four in their respective conferences.

That means their April 11 meeting could decide a lot, and a win this weekend for either team will set the stage for which team has the advantage come Game 82. While Milwaukee will be on the front end of a back-to-back, the 76ers will not, making it more likely Joel Embiid will suit up.

The showdown of stars is what fans will be waiting for, as each team played without during the first two games of the series. Milwaukee beat the 76ers last month when Embiid did not play, while the Bucks lost soundly without Giannis Antetokounmpo. With the stars fully healthy, this could be the marquee game of the weekend.

NBA seasons are long, and no matter what happens, a five-game stretch will not lock any outcome into place. However, a strong performance against its peers could boost Milwaukee to the top of the pack, and a poor one could doom it to another road start to the playoffs.

Next: NBA Rookie of the Year ladder, Week 20

With three season series wrapping up this week, seven days from now the road ahead will look much clearer for the Bucks. How they perform will go a long way toward teaching us about this team and what it can ultimately accomplish.