2018 NBA Draft: Is Collin Sexton a top-10 pick?

As the season has gone on, Alabama point guard Collin Sexton has regressed from early season success and is showing worrisome shortcomings.

When Collin Sexton nearly led Alabama to a win playing 3-on-5, he seemed cemented as a top-10 pick. With the heart of a warrior and an ability to shoot and live at the line, he looked like a good bet as a lead guard of the future. Sexton had those intangibles you just couldn’t teach. Who wouldn’t want a kid like that in the top-10? It’s the type of character that you bet on for years to come.

When it comes to fire, work ethic and competitiveness, you don’t have to worry about Sexton. We saw him take the Trae Young matchup personally and get the win. Yet, amidst that Minnesota performance and many of his other good outings, many warts and weaknesses were hiding in plain sight. In the weeks since, his shooting has plummeted, making other parts of his game — the not so glamorous ones — stick out.

Sexton certainly has a high floor, but that depends on what you’re looking for. We should feel good about Sexton as a point of attack defender and someone who can guard point guards. He’s got a bit of Patrick Beverley in him. The Alabama point guard is certainly a two-way player at the 1, but it’s his offense, not his defense that should give us pause. It’s this side of the ball that should make us question whether a franchise should use a top-10 pick on him.

Before getting into the meat of it, let’s start with the good. On the season, Sexton has show an innate ability to finish at the rim and get to the free throw line. Sexton takes almost eight free throw attempts per game and finishes at a 63 percent clip at the rim. Of those attempts, only 23 percent are assisted. Those are very good signs for the next level of his basketball career. That’s especially good for someone considered a slightly smaller guard.

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Sexton has explosiveness that catches defenders off-balance and allows him to finish through contact. When he was hitting his jumpers earlier in the year, he was nearly unstoppable offensively. The only real concern with his game was as a passer. Sexton struggled to make basic reads and get teammates involved. Weeks ago, that seemed like an area to improve on for a dominant, score-first guard. But with the shot not falling, it seems more problematic.

As his recent dip in shooting has shown, Sexton is a shot-maker. He’s not a sniper or sharpshooter. In SEC play, he’s shot 26.4 percent from 3 and is averaging less than 16 points and four assists per game. For someone that isn’t an elite passer, he can’t get by without a strong jumper. What doesn’t help is almost one-third of his shots are 2-point jumpers. He’s hitting them less than 31 percent of the time.

So, if he’s not an elite passer and is a shaky jump shooter, what exactly is the general lookout here? In the modern NBA, we understood why teams like the Orlando Magic drafted a player like Elfird Payton. If you lacked either elite passing instincts or great shooting potential, you have to have the other and be a strong defender. Right now Sexton doesn’t look convincing with his passing or shooting.

In addition to that, his defense is more behind than reputation may reckon it is. His one steal per game is good, not great. Furthermore, his Defensive Box Plus-Minus is barely in the positive. Sexton may be good at bodying up small guards like himself, but he doesn’t make as much of an impact on that side of the court as you’d like. It doesn’t help that he’s only a one-positional defender, though he likely will be able to hold himself in the post from time to time.

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Is an athletic point guard who can only get to the line, finish well and sometimes hit tough shots worth a top-10 pick? In a weaker class maybe, but certainly not in this strong of one. And even in a weaker class, don’t you want a little more upside? Sexton doesn’t have that tantalizing ceiling to talk yourself into. It’s a high floor if anything. Given he can’t play multiple positions, it’s harder to talk yourself into valuing what he’s likely to bring. That makes it hard to buy him as a top-10 pick.