2018 NBA Draft: Wendell Carter deserves more respect

As Marvin Bagley III gets most of the attention at Duke, his teammate Wendell Carter is putting together a monster freshman year.

Duke may not be “back,” but they’re thriving behind a strong freshmen class. Marvin Bagley III hasn’t missed a beat since his late jump from high school, seemingly putting up 20 and 10 every game. Yet as Bagley puts together a terrific freshman campaign, in many ways, his teammate Wendell Carter Jr. is having an equally good year.

His traditional numbers don’t pop like Bagley’s, but there’s no denying his production. On the year Carter is putting up 13.5 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 1.9 blocks per game. That’s an incredible line for any freshman. It’s even better when you consider the context of Duke.

Wendell Carter is immensely underrated

At Duke, yes Carter is playing center in the middle of Duke’s 2-3 zone, but he’s playing alongside an unreal rebounder in Bagley. Yet he’s still grabbing nine boards a game and 19 percent of all available rebounds when he’s on the floor. On the other side of the ball, so much of the offense goes through Bagley, Trevon Duval and Grayson Allen. Still, despite that and horrible spacing, Carter is doing his thing.

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That’s the thing about Carter’s season. He’s not getting to show his face-up game and full repertoire on offense. In an ideal situation, Carter would play the 5 with three or even four shooters around him. He can post up, face up and create a lot of offense for others operating from the elbows. He’s a superb passer, which gets overlooked too often. Defensively, it seems his space defense, rim protection and awareness are steadily getting better.

Carter’s play and numbers are even more impressive the deeper you dive. Going back to 1993, only 20 freshmen have averaged 13.5 points, nine rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game. Carter is one of them. In addition, once you factor in 3-point shooting — Carter is hitting over 40 percent from 3 — no one is doing what Carter is this season. Let’s go further.

Carter has shown more consistent two-way play than nearly any other top prospect this year. Of the 14 college players this season with an Offensive and Defensive Box Plus/Minus over six, Carter is the only player you’ll find high on mock drafts. These categories are designed to measure impact on both ends, so this illustrates Carter’s potential. Even Michigan State’s Jaren Jackson Jr. doesn’t make the list.

Floor vs. ceiling

Part of the reason Carter has not gotten as much respect and appreciation has a lot to do with the floor vs upside debate. For Carter, he doesn’t have that superstar ceiling of a Bagley. He will never be the best player in the NBA, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be the best player on his team.

Al Horford is a great example without going as far as saying Carter is Horford 2.0. Horford’s awareness, shooting and passing are far above Carter, but there’s a lot to see in common. Carter has the potential to make his team better as a great passing big who can anchor a defense and stretch the floor. That’s extremely rare.

He may not have Mohamed Bamba’s defensive ceiling or DeAndre Ayton’s offensive ceiling, but looks the part of a better two-way player. This raises a really interesting question when it comes to the draft. Bamba, Ayton and Bagley are higher risks for a higher reward, whereas Carter is much safer with a lower ceiling. So who do you go for?

Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft: End of 2017 edition

Most people would probably say it’s better to risk it for a franchise player, as the Philadelphia 76ers are seeing in Joel Embiid. Within the context of this pool of big men, Carter really isn’t much of a drop-off. It’s understandable to want the intrigue of the higher upside bigs, but whatever team Carter ends up on is likely to be very happy with what he brings to the table. Don’t be surprised if he has a better career than several bigs from this class.