Indiana Pacers: Without Victor Oladipo, the honeymoon is on pause
The Indiana Pacers have struggled mightily since Victor Oladipo went out with an injury, but even when he comes back, they have other issues to deal with.
It’s been a while since a front office has been lambasted to the level that Kevin Prichard and the Indiana Pacers were for the Paul George trade. You’d have a better chance of finding a No. 13 jersey at a Pacers home game than unearthing a review giving the deal anything above a C- grade.
It seems obvious now, but we all chose to ignore the fact that Pritchard not only acquired a former No. 2 overall pick, but one who’s only 25 years old and had shown multiple stints of NBA competence in between bouts of inconsistency.
Perhaps the Pacers general manager knew Victor Oladipo had been miscast as a 3-and-D wing when Russell Westbrook was on the court and someone who was expected to do everything for the offense when Russ sat. Maybe he also remembered how promising Domantas Sabonis looked in college, and realized he never got a chance to shine in his one year in the pros.
Or maybe he just got lucky. Either way, kudos to him. The Pacers raced out to a 19-14 start, Oladipo was getting praise as the second-best guard in the East, and Pritchard had replaced calls for his head with Executive of the Year buzz.
What a difference a week can make.
Boat without a captain
If nothing else, the last three Pacers games have done wonders for whatever fledgling MVP chances Oladipo built up over the season’s first two and a half months.
Indiana’s new star is on the shelf with swelling in his right knee after playing with pain for a month, and the team has lost all three games in his absence. The first was to a Dallas Mavericks squad that had lost eight in a row on the road.
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They then proceeded to drop a contest to a Chicago Bulls team missing starting point guard Kris Dunn, and the 119 points they gave up tied Chicago’s second-highest total of the season. Finally, they were summarily blown out by the Minnesota Timberwolves in a game that was not nearly as close as the 107-90 final score would indicate.
Here’s the real problem: Even before Oladipo was shut down, there were some troubling signs, starting about a week prior to his going out.
On Dec. 18, the Pacers blew a five-point lead with under 30 seconds to go against the Boston Celtics thanks to an unconscionable turnover in the closing seconds. In the next game, they needed a fourth quarter surge to pull away from the league-worst Atlanta Hawks. Thanks to another late blown lead, they needed overtime and 38 points from Oladipo to get past the Nets on Dec. 23, and followed that up by getting pounded by the Detroit Pistons, 107-83.
Their 2-5 record over the last two weeks would be less disconcerting if it weren’t for what lies ahead, and the troubling signs underlying the slide.
Defensively challenged
Indiana had better hope that Oladipo gets back quick, because things don’t get any easier in 2018.
Following a trip to Milwaukee, the Pacers have a testy home stand against the red-hot Bulls, the Bucks again, the surging Miami Heat, and end with a visit from LeBron James. They then depart on a five-game West coast swing featuring two back-to-backs — Phoenix Suns/Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers/Los Angeles Lakers — and ending in San Antonio. After a home rematch with the Suns, they top off the three-week gauntlet with a trip to Cleveland.
It’s not hard to see a below-.500 team returning from Ohio in late January. Oladipo’s return – whenever it comes – will certainly help, but there are other issues on the horizon.
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8 Points, 9 Seconds
Through two months, the Pacers shocked the league by thriving as a fast-paced team with an elite offense. Indiana started out 17-13 thanks mostly to a 108.1 offensive rating, according to NBA.com — a number that trailed only the historically great Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets and the really-freaking-good Cavs, Raptors and Wolves.
They also ranked sixth in effective field goal percentage over that span and rarely turned the ball over. With that offensive profile, their league-average defense was good enough on most nights. A formula that no one was expecting was working like a charm.
Over their recent 2-5 stretch, their offensive rating has dipped to 105.7. That would be 12th in the league over the entire season thus far, which is fine. The defense, on the other hand, is not fine.
After posting a 105.7 defensive rating through two months, they’ve given up 112.8 points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks, 26th in the league. Part of the problem is that over this span, Indiana has allowed opponents to shoot 48.6 percent from the field, which would be the worst in the league over the full season.
In case you haven’t heard, Lance Stephenson has replaced Oladipo in the starting lineup. The team has a 108.3 defensive rating with him on the court — the worst among rotation players. That number drops to 105.4 when he’s sitting, which is the biggest drop-off among regulars.
The only issue with blaming Stephenson for the team’s recent woes is that, through three games at least, Lance hasn’t been the problem. In 41 minutes with the starters, the team has only been outscored by three points. The man is a walking, talking high wire act, but he’ also an eight-year vet who can hold it together more often than not. It’s not like the Pacers’ preferred starting five was killing it either. In 414 minutes together, Oladipo, Darren Collison, Myles Turner, Thaddeus Young and Bojan Bogdanovic only have a +0.2 net rating.
So what’s the problem?
Not enough bodies
Aside from a drop-off in the defense and the team obviously missing its leading scorer and primary creator, the major issue appears to be the team’s lack of depth.
The Pacers, with everyone healthy, go a solid eight-deep. In addition to the starting five and Lance, Domantas Sabonis has been a minor revelation and Cory Joseph is a solid if unspectacular veteran. After that, things get hairy.
When Turner was out for seven games with a concussion earlier in the year, the Pacers tried to cobble together big man minutes by using a combo of rookie T.J. Leaf and Al “Keep Gettin’ Dem Checks” Jefferson.
They survived with a 4-3 record, but it was no thanks to Turner’s replacements. They split Turner’s minutes, and the team was outscored by about 2.5 points per game during each player’s stint, according to Basketball-Reference. Both have been on the outskirts of the rotation since Turner came back.
Filling a guard’s shoes hasn’t been as easy given the roster construction.
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Over the last three games, along with Lance getting more minutes, Indiana has been attempting to fill Oladipo’s shoes by using third-year guard Joe Young, who you wouldn’t recognize if he was sitting next to you right now. He played a season-high 24 minutes against the Wolves after combining for 25 the previous two nights.
It’s too early to tell anything, but given his uninspiring time with Indiana thus far, he’s unlikely to be the answer. Ditto for journeyman Damien Wilkins, who had been out of the league for four seasons prior to making the Pacers out of camp.
If Oladipo is lost for a sustained period of time — the latest is that he’s “questionable” for their next game — the Pacers’ best chance to hang around might be to try out a combo they’ve thus far been unwilling to give heavy minutes to.
They may not have much of a choice.
So far this season, Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis have shared the court for only six and a half minutes per game, and that number hasn’t gone up since Oladipo has been out. Thus far, Indiana has been about even with its opponents when the duo plays together, but in only 151 minutes.
Even after Oladipo returns, the Pacers would be wise to give their young bigs more time together. The trio of Turner, Sabonis and ‘Dipo have outscored opponents by 6.5 points per 100 possessions, albeit in just 89 minutes. Indiana’s future lies with those three, and how well they play together could be a bellwether on the Pacers’ ceiling.
Next: 2017-18 Week 12 NBA Power Rankings
In the meantime, Indiana just needs to keep its head above water. It won’t be easy, but they’ve done nothing but defy everyone’s expectations so far this year. What’s another couple of weeks?