Denver Nuggets: The Paul Millsap injury fallout
With Paul Millsap sidelined for an estimated three months after wrist surgery, the Denver Nuggets’ playoff chances may be in jeopardy.
The Denver Nuggets appeared to be heading in the right direction this season. While they fell just short of the playoffs last season, their record with Nikola Jokic as the starter indicated a team with many playoff runs in its future.
The Nuggets solidified their core lineup by finding a nearly perfect fit in free agency. Paul Millsap provided at least some floor-spacing potential, and underrated offensive intelligence. More importantly, he had the skills to be a defensive anchor for a team that struggled mightily on that end of the floor with Jokic manning the middle.
The early season sample size showed more of the same. Denver started the year 10-7, with a slightly less historic offense but an improved defense. Sadly, that early season success is now in jeopardy after Paul Millsap tore a ligament in his left wrist. Millsap will spend 2-3 months on the sidelines after surgery, per The Vertical‘s Shams Charania. The injury is devastating to a Denver team on the rise that may now have to fight for a playoff spot.
Offense: Finding his role
Paul Millsap struggled to adjust to Denver’s offense in his first month with the team. He shot 41.6 percent from the floor and 31.6 percent from deep in October. His True Shooting Percentage was a miserable 49.1 percent. While his defense remained at its usual fantastic levels, his Net Rating in October was actually negative.
His poor offensive performance showed up in more than just the numbers. Millsap would often try to get to his favorite spots on offense from his Atlanta days — only to find Jokic already there running the offense from the high post.
While he did not live up to expectations on offense in October, Millsap had been starting to adjust in November. He boosted his True Shooting Percentage to 56.3 percent, with improvements from the floor and from beyond the arc. Sadly, Millsap’s injury will leave him with precious little time before the playoffs to continue to adjust to Denver’s offensive schemes.
Defense: Tough times ahead
While giving up a ton of points to the Houston Rockets is not exactly a rare occurrence, Denver’s 125-95 loss in its second game without Paul Millsap is a troubling sign for what lies ahead. Millsap’s primary purpose in Denver was to be a defensive anchor. Without his defensive presence in the starting lineup, the Nuggets’ defense could quickly regress to their almost league-worst levels from last season.
Paul Millsap has nearly impeccable timing in his pick-and-roll coverage, something that the Nuggets sorely needed with Jokic on the inside. Millsap is not a behemoth rim protector, but he can guard the rim at times and is an elite post defender. Furthermore, he has some of the quickest hands in the league. He can create steals either through reading passing lanes or through stripping the ball from unsuspecting opponents.
With an elite defender in Millsap, the Nuggets were 17th in Defensive Rating prior to his last game on Nov. 19. However, the Nuggets were 29th in Defensive Rating last season, and had the worst Defensive Rating in the league after Jokic took over the starting job on Dec. 15. While growth from some of the team’s young players should keep this defense out of the cellar, Millsap’s defensive impact is hard to overstate.
Future Outlook
With Millsap out, Denver may be able to clear up their log jam at power forward. Kenneth Faried got the start against the Sacramento Kings despite spending most of the season tied to the bench. He may be in line for more minutes going forward, though he played zero minutes in the team’s most recent game against Houston. Juan Hernangomez and Trey Lyles may also see more floor time with Millsap out.
Whatever choice Mike Malone opts to make, however, will be fraught with consequences for this Nuggets squad. The team may have a glut of power forwards, but none of them are even close to as useful on either end of the floor as Paul Millsap.
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Denver should have enough firepower to stay competitive until Millsap returns. However, their chances of making noise in the playoffs depend on a quick and full recovery from their All-Star big man.