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Minnesota Timberwolves: 3 reasons Nemanja Bjelica needs to start

By Michael Walton

Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images
Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images /
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The Minnesota Timberwolves have opened up the 2017-18 season as one of the league’s best offensive squads. It is time for Tom Thibodeau to build on that strength by increasing the usage of Serbian 3-point shooter, Nemanja Bjelica.

Tom Thibodeau is known in basketball circles as an intense, defensive-minded coach. But in 2018 the Minnesota Timberwolves have most of their wins due to their great offense, including their most recent win over the Charlotte Hornets in which they had a 40-point second quarter. Thibodeau’s bench unit is 19th in the league in points per game.

They aren’t doing well defensively either, which is why Minnesota has been in so many close games in the first place. Inserting Nemanja Bjelica — the current league leader in 3-point percentage at 59.3 percent — into the starting lineup will change things for the better. Here a three reasons why Bjelica should join the starting five.

His obvious advantage over Taj Gibson in floor-spacing

Taj Gibson is a great power forward. He is close with Thibodeau and Jimmy Butler. He know’s the system, and is hardly ever out of position on defense. But Taj Gibson does not exactly open up the floor for Minnesota’s many drive-and-kick options.

So far that has not proven to be a huge issue, as Gibson has found ways to score. But moving Bjelica into the starting lineup means moving Gibson to the bench, where he can help the often over-matched Gourgi Dieng lock down second units.

However, the biggest reason is that Bjelica has started the season on fire from deep. He is leading the league in 3-point percentage at 59.3 percent on 2.5 attempts from 3-point range per game.

Teams know that when he checks in he can immediately make an impact with his shooting, so the scouting report tells you to close out hard and Bjelica and make him make a play, but so far he has shown the ability to do so.

Imagine the above play, but with Wiggins taking the shot rather than Crawford, and Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler and Karl-Anthony Towns spacing the floor. In that scenario Wiggins may get all the way to the rim off the pass from Bjelica, creating an even higher percentage shot.

Bjelica makes defenses account for him, and he is confident in his ability as a spot-up shooter. He needs to start for a team ranking 27th in the league in 3-point attempt rate. His shooting and (more importantly) his spacing would help the T-Wolves build more early leads.

Karl-Anthony Towns has picked it up on the defensive end

Part of the reason it would theoretically be weird to start to start Bjelica next to Towns is it places more defensive onus on Towns. But so far this season, Towns has slowly but surely started to the right the ship on D.

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Towns has gotten blocks his entire career up to this point, but now it seems like he is starting to get a better grasp on help defense. In Minnesota’s second nail-biting win over OKC, Towns patrolled the paint to the tune of 12 defensive rebounds and four blocks, and it did not affect his play on the offensive end at all.

The biggest shocker of all is that Towns is currently Minnesota’s leader in defensive rating at 107 — three points better than his rating last season. Obviously, it helps a ton that he often is on the floor with one of Butler or Gibson at all times. Towns can still be caught — perhaps a little too often — out of position in pick-and-roll defense.

But he is finally starting to use his athletic tools to recover rapidly. His development as a potentially elite shot-blocker means that you can insert Bjelica into the starting lineup to give the offense a boost without hurting the D tremendously.

Bjelica is 6’10” and 240 pounds, so he can guard other 4s fine until Gibson checks in. As long as the minute distribution remained relatively the same, Gibson would still bring the same defensive punch.

Minnesota is not extremely effective in the pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop

Jeff Teague was looked at as a great signing for Minnesota was his proficiency as a ball-handler in the pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop. Jimmy Butler was also starting be known for his improvements as a pick-and-roll initiator. Right now Teague is in the 64th percentile of pick-and-roll scorers. Butler is doing even worse in that department, scoring 0.53 points per possession out of the pick-and-roll. But Bjelica can be the solution there.

Both Teague and Butler are adjusting to many new teammates, and that has to be accounted for. A big reason for this is that Gibson and KAT are doing well at finishing inside, but the most effective scorer (in a small sample size) out of the pick-and-roll has been Bjelica (1.83 points per possession).

The most frustrating part is that Gibson (at 14.6 percent) and Gorgui Dieng (31.2 percent) have received higher usage in pick-and-roll than Bjelica at 9.5 percent. Thibodeau needs to insert Bjelica as a starter for that reason alone. Defenses will be forced to make tough decisions with Bjelica spacing the floor for Wiggins, Towns, Teague and Butler, rather than just letting Gibson take long 2-pointers.

Moving forward….

As of Nov. 10,  the Minnesota Timberwolves are 10th in offensive rating, and 26th in defensive rating. They are near the bottom of the league in 3-point attempts and makes, but in the upper-half in 3-point percentage (11th).

The Timberwolves’ defense won’t change overnight. They will have to get used to playing on a string as a unit. AWe won’t truly know how well they’ve improved in that department until this bunch goes through the rigors of playoff basketball.

Next: 2017-18 Week 4 NBA Power Rankings

But accepting that Minnesota needs an uptick in 3-point shooting — or at least floor-spacing — will lead Thibodeau to Bjelica. Nemana Bjelica is still leading the NBA with a 59.3 percentage from the 3-point line, and he would make an already potent offense elite.

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