Cleveland Cavaliers: Is The 3-Point Shooting Sustainable?

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been the best three-point shooting team in the 2016 NBA Playoffs so far, but is it sustainable?

If you’re looking for the best three-point shooting team of the 2016 NBA Playoffs, it’s not the Golden State Warriors with their Splash Brothers. It’s not the Portland Trail Blazers with their star backcourt of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, and it’s not the San Antonio Spurs with their next-level ball movement.

It’s none other than LeBron James‘ Cleveland Cavaliers.

Coming off a first round sweep of the Detroit Pistons, the Cavs have quickly stormed out to a 3-0 lead over the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference semifinals. You could say the Cavaliers have been all business, but that’s not exactly true: Watching them decimate the Hawks for what seems like the billionth time with a barrage of triples has been infectious fun as well.

The reason? Cleveland is stroking the ball from three-point range at an unprecedented rate through the first three games of the series.

Through their first seven games of the postseason, the Cavaliers lead all playoff teams in made three-pointers at 16.9 per game, with the Warriors ranking second at 13.1 per game. The Cavs also lead the league in attempted threes (36.1 3PA) and three-point percentage (46.6 percent). Despite playing in only seven playoff games, they have 21 more made three-pointers than the next closest team.

The Cavs were a very good perimeter shooting team during the regular season, but they’ve somehow boosted that long range prowess into another stratosphere for the postseason. In the regular season, Cleveland made 10.7 threes per game (second in the NBA), attempted 29.6 threes per game (third) and converted on 36.2 percent of them (seventh).

To sum up: The Cavaliers are averaging about six more made three-pointers than they did in the regular season, they’re taking nearly seven more per game and they’re converting them more than 10 percent more efficiently. That. Is. Bonkers.

As of right now, it’s hard to argue that any playoff team has looked better than these Cavaliers. The question is, is this three-point blitz sustainable for the nine remaining victories required to bring The Land its first NBA championship?

I hate to break it to you Cavs fans, but don’t get your hopes up on that one.

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On the one hand, it’s extremely encouraging to see the Cavaliers do this against the Hawks, who were the NBA’s second ranked defense during the regular season and limited opponents to 33.8 percent shooting from downtown — the fifth stingiest mark in the league.

But tha Cavaliers present numerous matchup issues for the Hawks, starting with no one on Atlanta’s roster being able to match up with LeBron James. Neither Kent Bazemore nor Thabo Sefolosha can stop his penetration off the dribble, which means the Hawks have had to leave defenders sitting at home to cut him off.

Paul Millsap has been caught sinking into the middle far too many times on those plays, and LeBron is picking the defense apart with his otherworldly passing skills. Leaving Kevin Love or Channing Frye wide open on the perimeter in the stretch-4 or stretch-5 spot is as good as chalking up three points on the scoreboard at this point.

With head coach Tyronn Lue deploying a LeBron-Love-Frye frontcourt at times, the Hawks have had to pick their poison and they’re choking on the results every time. Throwing Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith into that lineup has been downright unfair, which is why it’s no surprise the Cavs have drilled an NBA-record 61 three-pointers through the first three games, shooting a blistering 53 percent from long range for the series.

LeBron James, who shot a career-worst 30.9 percent from deep during the regular season, is 7-for-14 from downtown in this series. Channing Frye, who shot 37.7 percent on 4.4 three-point attempts per game during the regular season, has been a human flamethrower off the bench, torching Atlanta for 9-of-15 shooting from deep in the series (60 percent).

Kevin Love has been unbelievable and has completely outplayed Millsap, averaging 16.3 points and 13.0 rebounds per game while shooting 44 percent from long range on a staggering 8.3 attempts per game.

We should also mention Kyrie Irving, whose three-point percentage has skyrocketed from 32.1 percent in the regular season to 11-for-15 (73.3 percent) in this series. And who could forget J.R. Smith, who has gone 13-for-24 (54.2 percent) from downtown against Atlanta after shooting 40 percent in the regular season?

Hell, even Richard Jefferson (4-for-5) and Iman Shumpert (2-for-2) have gotten in on the act, which is why it wasn’t surprising to see the Cavs set an NBA record for most three-pointers by a team in a single game (25) in Game 2.

The problem is, those numbers aren’t even close to being sustainable, especially in such a tiny sample size.

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According to the Law of Averages, the Cavaliers are due for some major regression. It may not come before the end of their likely sweep of the Hawks, and it may not even come against the Toronto Raptors or Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. But against elite defenses like the Warriors or Spurs in the Finals, good luck convincing anyone this kind of three-point fire storm will continue.

The Hawks are a similarly elite defense, but Tristan Thompson‘s presence on the glass cannot be understated against a poor rebounding team, creating mismatches and second chance opportunities that are often directly responsible for wide open threes.

Not convinced? Check out how the Cavaliers have fared in the regular season, the 2016 NBA Playoffs overall and the second round of the playoffs based on how close they’ve been guarded on their three-point attempts:

• Regular Season: 28.3% on 0-2 feet (0.7 3PA); 29.9% on 2-4 feet (5.0 3PA); 35.7% on 4-6 feet (11.6 3PA); 39.9% on 6+ feet (12.2 3PA)
• Playoffs: 25% on 0-2 feet (1.1 3PA); 39.6% on 2-4 feet (6.9 3PA); 50% on 4-6 feet (14.0 3PA); 48.5% on 6+ feet (14.1 3PA)
• Second Round : 0% on 0-2 feet (0.7 3PA); 47.1% on 2-4 feet (5.7 3PA); 65.9% on 4-6 feet (13.7 3PA); 47.3% on 6+ feet (18.3 3PA)

Cleveland’s drastic improvement on three-pointers where the closest defender was 2-4 feet away stands out, but take a look at how often they’ve been “open” (nearest defender 4-6 feet away) or “wide open” (6+ feet away).

During the regular season, Cleveland’s superb ball movement provided them with 23.8 three-point looks per game in those categories. Against Atlanta, that number has skyrocketed to 32.0 per game, with the Cavs converting 65.9 percent of their attempts with the defender being 4-6 feet away and 47.3 percent with the nearest defender being 6+ feet away.

Simply put, Atlanta’s personnel is not suited for stopping or even slowing Cleveland’s three-point attack, and their offense is nowhere near being dangerous enough to make the Cavs work for it on the other end. It’s been wide open three after wide open three against the Hawks, and that’s a trend that may not continue the deeper the Cavs get into the playoffs.

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The Cavs are fully healthy, they’re providing themselves plenty of down time to rest and they seem to be peaking at the right time. Fans should also enjoy this historic three-point shooting display, because it truly has been remarkable. Just don’t expect it to carry the Cleveland Cavaliers to the promised land alone.