Minnesota Timberwolves Are Plummeting Into Prime Draft Territory

The Minnesota Timberwolves might be free falling in the standings, but they’re landing in an ideal place to utilize another high draft pick.

For years, the Minnesota Timberwolves tried to conjure up ways to provide assistance to star power forward Kevin Love. From picking in the mid-to-late lottery to signing obscure free agents, their focus never shifted. Similar to New Orleans’ unfortunate predicament currently, Minnesota was failing to build around what looked to be their franchise savior. Finally, they’ve molded themselves into an exciting cast of brimming talent in the Western Conference.

It’s taken years, but Minnesota finally has developed an identity on the court. Like their logo, they’re young, hungry and their talent accumulated through the draft could dominate with a pack-like mentality. The quest to get more youthful and develop a paradigm of long-term productivity arguably started when the Wolves shipped off Love to Cleveland in August of 2014 to land eventual 2015 Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins.

For Minnesota, it seemed to be a necessary overhaul that would be tough to endure in Year 1, but their new and fresh identity was apparent.

"“We’ve all of a sudden become athletic, exciting and fast instead of being maybe a little bit slower and more plodding,” the late Flip Saunders said in a news conference after the trade became official, via Andy Greder of TwinCities.com in 2014."

Two years later, the Timberwolves are definitely a spectacle to watch with their athleticism and pace, but winning consistent basketball games has been the recurring issue. Jumping out to a 4-2 start to begin the 2015-16 season, including a 102-93 OT victory on the road against Chicago on Nov. 7, Minnesota gave off the impression that a playoff berth was a definite possibility.

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Fast forward to Jan. 21 and the youthful Wolves are just 9-30 in their last 39 games. Wednesday night against Dallas, Minnesota held a 10-point lead with 6:46 remaining in the fourth quarter, only for it to evaporate like quicksand as the Mavericks went on a 13-2 run to take a 87-86 lead late in the fourth. Rookie Karl-Anthony Towns put the Wolves back up by two with a three-pointer, but Dallas tied it up and subsequently won by double digits in OT, 106-94.

It was the second straight game Minnesota surrendered a double-digit lead and went on to lose by more than 10 points. The Wolves are reeling, but it’s not just holding onto leads that’s become a reason for concern.

Shot selection, especially for a unit with a majority of its players who’ve played less than four years in the association, is tied to Minnesota’s free fall in the standings. MinnPost’s Britt Robson delved into how the inefficient looks have squandered any chance of consistent basketball for the highly inconsistent Wolves.

"During that stretch [Minnesota’s 2-13 stretch before last night’s loss to Dallas], they launched more midrange shots – between 15-19 feet away from the basket – than any other team by fairly wide margin, 17.4 per game compared to the next-highest mid-rangers, Miami, at 15.7 per game.  By distance alone, analytics have demonstrated that the midrange is not as efficient as a three-pointer or a shot at the rim in terms of points-generated per attempt."

Minnesota also finds itself in the bottom half of the league in points per game (98.9), offensive efficiency and three-point field goal percentage. They’ve completely refrained from shooting from outside the arc, despite adding a frontcourt talent capable of knocking down perimeter looks in Towns.

Defensively, they’ve been much more formidable unit, letting up 3.7 less points per game than last season. You can compete giving up just under 103 points a night. Last year, injuries and constant roster shuffling didn’t allow the young wolves to develop a system defensively.

With consistent lineups and the inclusion of younger talent, the outlook for Minnesota is promising, especially if the defense holds up long term. Towns will be the driving force to make sure that happens.

The No. 1 pick from Kentucky was supposed to productive in his rookie year, albeit flashing upside that would cement his status as a possible star. However, few predicted that he’d be the arguable frontrunner for rookie of the year. Back in August, only 10 out of 32 rookies polled believed that Towns would win the 2016 Rookie of the Year award. Bovada had 76ers’ center Jahlil Okafor as the favorite, over Towns, before the season began.

Whether the lack of faith fueled Towns ascension to being labeled as a potential Hall of Famer, his two-way dominance in the 2015-16 season arguably is more important than fighting for a low-seeded playoff spot.

The Sacrament Kings are currently 6.5 games ahead of Minnesota as the No. 8 seed in the West, but a four-game throttling by the Warriors seems almost definite for that playoff spot. Minnesota might be losing consistent games at 13-31, but their young talent has arguably passed the eye test so far. That’s a necessity for a rebuilding organization.

Towns is just one of the possible superstars already fixated on the roster. He ranks second in points per game (15.9), first in rebounds per game (9.7), second in blocks per game (1.8) and first in PER (21.6) on the roster. Out of the Timberwolves players who’ve attempted 36 or more three-point shots in the 2015-16 season, Towns ranks first-with a solid 38.9 percent clip. Let’s not forget he’s a multi-diverse 7’0″, 244-pound center.

It’s an expedited level of production for Towns, based on initial projections, but for Minnesota, this is powerful. The Timberwolves needed some bite in their finesse-like approach they’ve played with for years.

Towns, unlike Okafor, gives Minnesota position flexibility, as a big who can take on less-mobile centers, and can guard the 4s in the league with exquisite lateral quickness for a big. He also hasn’t been following suit with Minnesota’s midrange, long-two jump shot happy approach, as the rookie takes 57 percent of his shots from 10 feet and in. Even if he wants to knock down the aforementioned low-efficient look, he can.

Towns had to work in order to hear his name called first in the 2015 NBA Draft. He was limited offensively at Kentucky, with head coach John Calipari utilizing all of his freshman in a platoon-like lineup, but displayed enough promise on both ends to warrant the privilege of becoming the No. 1 pick. Towns’ game, like many past young talents with superstar potential, continues to blossom at the professional level.

"“He’s starting to figure out… and actually pretty early on, that he has all the tools available to him,” said former No. 1 pick Brad Daugherty on ESPN. “When he goes against people in the league, he has success. Then, when he comes back the second time, he improves that margin he put up the first time. He’s starting to score at any time in the NBA.”"

His two-way ability and versatility allow for Minnesota to have optionality when selecting anywhere from No. 3 to No. 8, similar to Minnesota’s “other” star.

Andrew Wiggins played small forward at the University of Kansas, lining up next to Wayne Selden Jr., another highly-touted frosh, who was slotted at shooting guard for Bill Self. The 6’8″, 199-pound athletic marvel has played both SG and SF for Minnesota, thriving as a rookie at the three and at the two as a second-year player.

The graph below illustrates the seamless transaction Wiggins has had switching roles, albeit slightly, for the Timberwolves, who’ve relied on him more as a scorer with Tayshaun Prince at the 3 rather than Kevin Martin at the 2.

With a heightened role, Wiggins is limiting his turnovers, shooting at a better clip and becoming the offensive dynamo he was hyped up to be coming out of college. However, only impacting the game from a scoring perspective (1.9 APG, 0.8 BPG, 0.5 SPG) is a flaw that Wiggins will need to change in order to enter the realm of stars in the league. He might provide positional versatility, but unlike Towns, he isn’t helping the Timberwolves in a plethora of desired categories.

Having Towns and Wiggins as the foundation, along with veteran Ricky Rubio, is progress for a team once without an identity as an organization. With another high draft pick likely in fold, there are multiple options Minnesota can turn to.

Jaylen Brown

It’ll be difficult for the Wolves to out-tank the Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers in order to land the elite wings in the draft (Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram), but California freshman Jaylen Brown fits Minnesota’s offensive mentality emphatically.

The small forward contingency, led by the 35-year-old Tayshaun Prince, has been abysmal in the 2015-16 season, ranking 27th in Offensive Efficiency and 25th in Defensive Efficiency. Prince, evidently, isn’t the small forward of the future in Minnesota and backup Shabazz Muhhamad’s offensive output is more suited on the second unit. Both lack defensive upside, but one college freshman doesn’t.

Brown is the two-way wing Minnesota is craving to fit next to Wiggins, averaging 14.8 PPG and 5.9 RPG while shooting 47.9 percent from the floor. Both have elite athleticism and Brown’s 6’7″, 222-pound frame packs serious power. He’s not a shooter at this point of his career, converting just 27.8 percent on two-point jump shot attempts, and doesn’t have the polish yet to be a problem to guard for wings.

However, the athleticism trumps whatever concerns a team might have regarding who the next best wing is after Ingram. Minnesota could add a shooter to complement Wiggins via trade or in the offseason, but as a rebuilding team, bringing in inexpensive, team-controlled talent is the ideal route.

Minnesota has slowed down their pace, No. 18 in the league, from previous seasons, but the Wolves still have the pieces to ascend up the floor and finish at the rim. Taking inefficient looks in the half-court hasn’t been appealing and is counterintuitive in developing an offensive flow. Brown doesn’t need to take jumpers to be effective; he’ll earn his money in the league with athleticism and playing stout defense on the less glamorous end.

Dragan Bender

Dragan Bender might not be able to play in the U.S. until 2019, but that shouldn’t stop general manager Milt Newton from once again targeting upside with his first pick.

"“His contract with Tel Aviv includes an NBA opt-out clause after the fourth season, which means getting him stateside before the 2019-20 season will require an expensive buyout,” explains SB Nation’s Ricky O’Donnell.” “Still, the rise of players like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Rudy Gobert and Nikola Mirotic in recent years means some team is going to be willing to pull the trigger on Bender.”"

DraftExpress has Bender as their No. 3 player, but those hesitant to wait for his debut could pass on the big man for talents possessing less upside. The 7,1″, 214-pound Croatian, like Kristaps Porzingis one year ago, is the international product no one has heard of or knows of his game.

He’s in the Porzingis mold, as a combo big capable of stretching the floor. In 14 games for Maccabi Tel Aviv, Bender is knocking down a robust 50.0 percent of his three-point attempts on the season in the Israeli BSL league. Porzingis’ inability to consistently make perimeter shots was a hindrance on his stock heading into the draft. In a limited role, Bender is showing the ability to eventually become an NBA stretch-4 or even stretch-5.

Defensively, Bender’s flaws, as a frontcourt talent lacking bulk and defensive prowess, would be limited due to the presence of Towns. Bender is taller than Towns, as a 7-foot-1 slender giant who has offensive upside that meshes favorably with the offensively gifted rookie.

Porzingis’ stardom only boosts Bender’s appeal to teams, who have to also factor in the contract fiasco tied to Bender’s stock. The issue is if Minnesota is primed to compete next year, any of the freshman at the collegiate level seem to be candidates for that role.

However, the Timberwolves expediting their rebuild could be a mistake with Golden State and San Antonio steamrolling the rest of the West. Bender could be worth the wait, but the time is hard to bide for any organization.

Henry Ellenson

Kentucky’s Skal Labissiere would be a logical fit for the Timberwolves to open the season, but the 7-foot Kentucky frosh has been a major disappointment. Unable to consistently dominate and haul in boards, he’s failed to provide the necessary production down low for John Calipari. Marquette’s Henry Ellenson, on the other hand, has acclimated to the Division I level more quickly than expected.

The 25.4 percent from deep isn’t appealing, but the base stats (15.7 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG) are worth investing in if you’re a rebuilding organization looking for an offensive oriented big. Free throw percentage arguably is more indicative of future ability to shoot at the professional level and he’s shown evidential range to believe in a stretch-4 role long-term.

Packing little power into a 6’10”, 245-pound frame, Towns’ versatility comes up once again as a player who can once again handle punishment on the block and allow others to operate in their own wheelhouse. Ellenson isn’t your protypical Kenneth Faried type, who will bang down low and take contact from defenders. The Marquette freshman plays with a finesse and meticulous style of play that’s conjuring up results in what looks to be his only collegiate season.

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Ellenson is currently ranked one spot below Labissiere on DraftExpress (No. 7), but production, especially in the loaded Big East, is a resume builder worth noting. Minnesota also has more firepower than both Phoenix and Denver, who sit near them in the (lottery) standings, and could easily pass both teams with more consistency and less midrange jumpers. Ellenson would be a reach at No. 3, but is a realistic option as the draft nears.