Oklahoma City Thunder: Can Thunder Beat Cleveland Cavaliers?
By Tony Loedi
Earlier we broke down how Oklahoma City Thunder match up against the Golden State Warriors, where I boldly (or biasedly) gave Oklahoma City the edge over the reigning champions.
Now let’s turn our attention to the team Golden State defeated for the title last season, the LeBron James-led Cleveland Cavaliers, to see how they match up against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
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Likely Starting Lineups
C Timofey Mozgov Enes Kanter
PF Kevin Love Serge Ibaka
SF LeBron James Kevin Durant
SG Iman Shumpert Andre Roberson/Anthony Morrow
PG Kyrie Irving Russell Westbrook
I have a deep affection for great defenders. That’s why I have Andre Roberson starting for the Thunder against most lineups. I might however be talked into inserting Anthony Morrow over Roberson when facing the Cavs.
I’m not sure Roberson’s defense is as valuable against Cleveland as it is against the Warriors — where he’d be asked to guard Klay Thompson. Iman Shumpert can hit the open three, but he’s certainly not going to take the game away from you the way Klay Thompson can.
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I do expect Roberson to improve his 3-point shot this season, however, if he doesn’t improve and only hits the long ball at 25 percent, like last season, I’m probably going with the sharp shooting Anthony Morrow when playing the Cavaliers.
Thunder Offense (108 Off Rtg) vs. Cavaliers Defense (102 Def Rtg) numbers from last season post-All-Star break, as per NBA.COM
This Thunder offense is going to put up points against any defense. After the All-Star break last season, they had the fifth-best offense in the league with 108 Offensive Rating, and that was mostly without the injured Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. In contrast the Cavaliers defense, in the same time frame, was ranked 14th with a 102 Defensive Rating.
Although the Cavs defense tightened up in the playoffs, that was mostly against weaker teams from the Eastern Conference and also with the defensively challenged Kevin Love missing the majority of the postseason.
It’s fair to assume with the return of KD and Serge, the Thunder will put up even more points. Which should frighten the life out of Cleveland and the rest of the league.
Thunder Defense (107 Def Rtg) vs. Cavaliers Offense (109 Off Rtg) Post-All-Star break as per NBA.COM
It’s easy to blame Enes Kanter for OKC’s horrible defense after the All-Star break, it’s also a little unfair. Kanter’s arrival to Oklahoma City coincided with the absence of Durant and Ibaka – both very good defenders.
Prior to KD’s injury, the Thunder were 4.8 points better defensively with Durant on the floor. It’s not an exact science but if we’re to take that number at face value and subtract it from OKC’s defensive rating — after the All-Star break — we get a respectable defensive rating of 102.2. And that’s without including the influence of Serge Ibaka.
A healthy Thunder defensive unit will no doubt improve upon last season. The same could be said for Cleveland’s offense. It’s no secret that Kevin Love struggled to acclimatize to his new offensive surroundings last season. He went from being an inside-outside offensive beast in Minnesota, to being reduced to a stretch-four, stand in the corner guy in Cleveland.
While he was effective in that role — hitting 40-percent of his 3-point attempts following the All-Star break — expect the Cavs to give him more touches in the post next season, in turn making him a bigger threat. With a season under his belt playing as the third option, a more comfortable Kevin Love should start to remind us of what we saw in Minnesota.
As was the case with the Thunder O versus the Cavaliers D, Cleveland’s super offense will be able to score points against Oklahoma City’s defense. We can expect a high scoring affair when these two teams face off.
Which lineup wins?
Short answer, I’m not really sure. I realize I’ve written a lot of words without actually coming to a solid conclusion, but man it’s hard picking a winner out of these two teams, they’re just so evenly matched.
They both have very similar lineups.
They Each have; Arguably the best player in the game, a great rim protector, a defensive specialist on the wing, a front court player who struggles on defense, but flourishes on offense, and both have one of the best point guards in the league.
That’s where this matchup might be won — the battle between Russell Westbrook and Kyrie Irving. While the two point guards have different games they both play the same role, as the second scoring option on their respective teams, and they can both be too ball dominant at certain times.
The difference between these two lineup’s might just be which star point guard can harness that score-first mentality and play his role for the team.
For Russ it’s avoiding the 5-for-20 shooting nights, for Kyrie the zero-assist games.
Whichever one can bring more good moments than bad ones might just be the difference between these two evenly matched teams.
Next: 25 Best Players to Play for the Oklahoma City Thunder
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