Oklahoma City Thunder: Who Starts At Shooting Guard?

The Oklahoma City Thunder head into the new season with one of the deepest rosters in the league. They are especially stacked at shooting guard, where there appears to be at least four candidates vying for the starting role.

To predict who gets the start alongside point guard Russell Westbrook, we need to know what new head coach Billy Donovan is looking for in his shooting guard. Does he want the best defender, Andre Roberson; the best shooter, Anthony Morrow; the guy who gives a bit of both, Dion Waiters; or will he try a two-point guard system with D.J. Augustin?

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The one that gets the role might not necessarily be the best player, but he should be the one who best complements the Thunder’s two best players, in Kevin Durant and more importantly, backcourt partner Westbrook. They are the stars and the other players revolve around them. Like a jigsaw puzzle, the pieces of the lineup need to fit.

Who fits best with Westbrook? These are the on-court numbers with Westbrook from last season, per NBA.com:

We can rule out Augustin for the starting role. While some teams have flourished with it, the two-point guard system didn’t work between he and Russ last season. Offensively they didn’t do enough to outweigh the deficiencies on the defensive end.

Waiters is interesting–offensively he’s not as good as Morrow and defensively not in the same league as Roberson. The problem with Waiters, besides taking ill-advised mid-range shots, is that his skills overlap with what Westbrook does on offense.

While his 3-point catch-and-shoot numbers were OK–34 percent in a Thunder uniform–he’s still a player that’s most effective with the ball in his hands, similar to Westbrook. Also I like the look of Waiters coming off the bench as the spark plug for the second unit.

Ideally the perfect shooting guard to play next to Westbrook would be a combination of Roberson’s defense and Morrow’s shooting. Basically a 3-and-D player, someone that can knock down the open 3 and on the defensive end lock down on the oppositions best guard.

While Roberson improved his 3-point shooting, from 15 percent in 2013-14 to 25 percent last season, he’ll need to further improve if he wants to play big minutes next season. Of course for Morrow — a career 43 percent 3-point shooter — the opposite is true. For him to stay on the floor, he’ll need to show more on he defensive end.

So who starts, the defensive specialist or the 3-point sharpshooter? Which trait fits best with Durant and Westbrook?

Here are the on-court numbers with Durant from last season, per NBA.com:

It’s a relatively small sample size but this, along with the Westbrook numbers, shows that the Thunder might be best going with defense over shooting.

Although defenses are becoming more and more sophisticated in the way they guard non-shooters — for example Andrew Bogut “guarding” Tony Allen in the Golden State Warriors’ playoff series against the Memphis Grizzlies, daring Allen to shoot — great offensive players, like KD and Russ, will find ways to score.

Having said that, unless Roberson can bump his 3-point shooting north of 30 percent, there will be times when using Morrow will be more effective, certainly against teams with less threatening backcourts. It might be a case of using different lineups against different teams.

Whatever the case may be, at least the Thunder have options. And just a slight improvement in one of their shooting guards, will bring with it great results.

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