2015 NBA Playoffs: Previewing The Western Conference Matchups

(3) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (6) San Antonio Spurs

There’s two sides to this, really.  Initially, it appears to be the most exhilarating first round matchup we’ve ever had on hand. Then, you realize how unfair it is to place this series in the early stages of the playoffs, since both the Clippers and Spurs were on a collision course for the No. 2 or 3 seed out West. In the matter of one week, both Pop and Doc switched around from 2-6 through seeding, and the Spurs’ loss in New Orleans forfeited their home-court chance.

San Antonio and L.A. saw each other four times during the season, with three games bringing heart-racing finishes, and the other a convincing blowout by the Clippers in perhaps the worst Spurs performance of the season. On Jan. 31, San Antonio coughed up the ball 17 times, only shot 37.3% from the field, and rarely got into the paint against DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin.

The most obvious (and probably painful) thing to anticipate is how often Popovich likes to utilize the “hack-a-Jordan” strategy, in which he’ll have his guys intentionally foul Jordan throughout the game and send him to the charity stripe. Against the Spurs, Jordan shot 13-of-33 from the foul line (39.4%), including a 10-of-28 showing in Feb. 19’s win at Staples Center. Popovich isn’t going to think twice about implementing his special tactic, since he used to do it to Shaquille O’Neal all the time down the stretch of games — and Jordan is levels worse than Shaq in his foul shooting.

Without a second thought, the most important player in the entire series is Chris Paul, followed closely by Kawhi Leonard. What makes that even more intriguing is that Popovich loves to throw Leonard on Paul in late-game situations, trying to use Leonard’s 88-inch wingspan as the best way to pressure Paul’s play-making. If Paul gets comfortable for just one possession, Kawhi will ruin all lives and destroy Hollywood when he picks Paul’s pocket or causes a crucial turnover. Doc Rivers saw it happen this season, because everyone still underrates or forgets about Leonard’s one-on-one skills as a defender.

Paul definitely has the Spurs’ number this year, though, because of something he does better than any point guard:  Capitalize in the mid-range area.

Out of all guards to play 50+ games this year, Paul ranked 6th in mid-range attempts per game, taking 6.2 compared to his 3.8 shots per game from inside the paint. On those mid-range attempts, however, he shot an incredible 49.5%, which never sounds like it does Paul justice for how great he’s been in those situations. It was 12.6% better than Russell Westbrook’s mid-range efficiency, 7.5% better than Kevin Martin‘s, 13.7% better than DeMar DeRozan‘s, and 8.2% better than Tony Parker‘s.

Trying to stop Paul off pick-and-rolls from the wing or top of the key is the hardest task for anyone who plays Los Angeles, since he can hurt you from every point of attack. Paul just came off a season in which his Assist Ratio (35.8) and Turnover Ratio (8.1) gave him a difference of 27.7 — the highest of any point guard in the game, yet again. Thus, he can make the proper plays for his teammates if you take away his shot from the outside.

Having enough speed or agility to stick with Paul, though, seems to a problem in screen-roll action for the Spurs:

The Clippers use a nifty screen-roll with Redick setting the initial screen on Parker, who can never fight through quick enough to catch up to Paul.  DeAndre Jordan is then used to set an extra pick on the combination of Parker and Leonard, as he’s serving as a blockade for Paul to get his signature shot. What makes it dangerous is that you have to keep a body on Jordan and tightly contest the roll, especially since a lob at the rim has become his identity.

When San Antonio has Leonard on Paul, there’s still some issues when any big (this time it’s Spencer Hawes) engages in pick-and-roll action:

Communication was lost during the switch, since Duncan was just trying to contain Paul until Leonard recovered. However, Leonard was going for the full switch, because he trusts his defense on anyone. It doesn’t work, because there’s no way Duncan can hold Paul in an open space — CP3’s step-back is too deadly against younger guards closer to his size, meaning he would eat the older Spurs alive from 15-22 feet.

Parker’s troubles defensively — he was tormented last year by Westbrook in the West Finals, too — leave Paul as the most dangerous player to explode in this series. While the Spurs have been fabulous on defense since March 1st (actually the No. 1 in the league), Parker often gets confused off the pick-and-roll. It’s an area Popovich has to pay close attention to, before Paul gets in this type of rhythm:

A huge advantage for the Spurs, nonetheless, is how confident they’ll be on the road. In the four meetings with the Clippers, San Antonio’s net rating was 3.8 points better in the two road games than it was in their two at home.

The Spurs also value the art of quick ball movement and eliminate iso-ball when facing the Clippers. 71.2% of the Spurs’ field goals were assisted during the four meetings, which was 11.1% higher than Los Angeles’ Assist Percentage. When San Antonio takes care of the ball and Manu Ginobili isn’t turning it over at a high rate, this team becomes nearly impossible to beat four times in seven games. Their two wins over the Clippers featured a turnover ratio of just 10.1, while their two losses were due to a 16.5 ratio.

It’s a bit ludicrous to say this series will ultimately be decided in the first two games, because of how poised both teams are. The Spurs want to repeat and close the book on their historic legacy since 1999. The Clippers want to get rid of the criticism and hate they’ve gathered over the last three years for not being able to get to the West Finals. Chris Paul garners nearly all of it, actually.

But, I’m on the fence of believing we’ll have a picture of what will happen after Game 2. With the Spurs having to play on the road in Games 1 and 2, they need to grab one of them. Los Angeles has been better on the road since Blake Griffin returned, and if there’s one thing you can’t give this group, it’s confidence. They’ll certainly have a load of it if they head to San Antonio up 2-0.

If the Spurs play how they’ve been accustomed to on the road all year, they should feel comfortable about taking the series lead when it gets to Games 3 and 4. Their past experiences in Staples Center may not have been as dominant as Pop would like, but they aren’t one bit stressed about where they play, or who they play. Not in April.

On the road this season, San Antonio has allowed just 12.8 field goal attempts from 20-24 feet (extended beyond the 3-point arc). It was second behind Chicago’s lowest amount of 12.5. On those attempts, the Spurs’ opponents have shot just 37%.

From 25 feet extended, San Antonio has allowed the least amount of attempts per game, at 7.8. Limiting 3-point shooters has been the most important key factor in their recent road domination, and it’s the main blueprint for how to stop these Clippers.

In the end, someone is going home incredibly too early. Let’s create a 16-team tournament already, because neither team deserves to be have their title hopes cut short two rounds early.

Like Furious 7, Duncan and the Spurs are ready for one last ride. Survive this, and the next round will feel less problematic.

Prediction:  Spurs in 7