2015 NBA Playoffs: Previewing The Western Conference Matchups

(4) Portland Trail Blazers vs. (5) Memphis Grizzlies

Another series similar to the Hawks-Celtics from a few years back, which has the five seed obtaining homecourt over the four seed.

The Grizzlies probably didn’t want to be intertwined with the Warriors’ half of the bracket, but they shouldn’t hang their heads for this first round matchup. The Trail Blazers finished the season with just one more win than the seventh-seeded Mavericks, and everything has felt similar to an uphill battle since Wesley Matthews tore his Achilles’ tendon.

Since Matthews’ injury on March 5, Portland has went just 11-12, the 18th best winning percentage during that time frame. It hasn’t been easy for Terry Stotts to deal with the late-season injury bug. Arron Afflalo (Matthews’ fill-in) has a mild shoulder injury, and Nicolas Batum has a right knee contusion. We’re still unsure of how ready they’ll be for the first couple games of the series, which are on the road. Even when they do return, having to go against the roughest and meanest team in the West doesn’t give Portland any good signs.

That’s just the thing for this series:  If Portland had the first two games at home like the seeding suggests, they could probably squeeze by while Batum and Afflalo get their injuries under control. But, having to go to Memphis and at least split the first two games is a demanding task, especially when Memphis is 31-10 at home for the year and Portland isn’t even .500 on the road (19-22).

Memphis may have taken a huge step back in the standings and overall play since trading for Jeff Green, but the correlation isn’t directly tied to him. Having Green for this series is essential, because the original offensive verve for the Grizzlies wouldn’t be strong enough.

Green has been learning how to play with two robust bigs, but he’s done a nice job taking advantage of matchup problems:

Off the switch by Batum and Meyers Leonard, Green attacks into the paint, and he’s too talented with his left hand for Leonard to get a stop. It makes the Grizzlies versatile, and they’ve even been able to produce easy points for Green off high-low action with Marc Gasol. Batum has been a bit lazy defensively in these regular season meetings with Memphis, allowing Green to get where he wants off cuts.

For all the little (and major) injuries to Aldridge’s hands and feet this year, that hasn’t stopped him from being a solid defender for 71 games. Despite ranking 40th in Defensive Real Plus-Minus of all power forwards (+0.67), his metrics on defense haven’t matched the eye-test. He’s been able to use his quick feet to recover when needed, and usually does a sound job in defending at the rim without fouling.

Although, he’s up against the toughest frontcourt in the league for a six or seven game series, and nothing like the depleted Rockets depth they faced in the 2014 first round. Even with his improved defensive skills during his 9th year as a pro, Aldridge still may have no answers for the bullies inside:

Zach Randolph is a tyrant inside the paint, trying to take your lunch money and leave you crying to your parents. Aldridge has the height and arms to defend either Randolph or Gasol, but it’s all about keeping them out of position before the touch.  Randolph loves to catch the ball closer to the rim if possible, although we’ve also seen him deliver his 16-foot jumper if you dare him.

There’s just too much power to overcome in the middle, especially when Robin Lopez has to stray away from the rim because of Gasol’s superb shooting and decision-making after a screen-roll.

Memphis feared they would match up with San Antonio in the first round, and they dodged a bullet. Without disrespect to Portland, who’s missing a 39% 3-pointer shooter in Matthews, this was the easiest first round draw for Memphis outside of the Mavericks.  Matthews missed 22 games during the season, and still finished 9th in 3-pointers made.

When he went down, Portland lost their ability to be a top five unit in both offensive and defensive rating. Everything was looking sunny for Oregon, and the two seed would’ve been theirs if they didn’t lose a great two-way perimeter starter. There’s no debating it, I would’ve prematurely sent them all the way to the West Finals. Things happen, and they’ll be back next year as part of the “special eight” out West.

Prediction:  Grizzlies in 7