2015 NBA Playoffs: Previewing The Western Conference Matchups
By Shane Young
(2) Houston Rockets vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks
Between Dallas owner, Mark Cuban, and Houston’s general manager, Daryl Morey, this series is nothing but a Texas combat of new-age leaders.
Cuban and Morey know each other extremely well, having discussed numerous analytic issues through the years (especially during the MIT Sloan Conference). Dallas is fortunate enough to have a coach in Rick Carlisle that thrives in defending teams with high-powered superstars — he found a way to send anguish through Miami in 2011 by severely limiting LeBron James, and scared Gregg Popovich to death in the 2014 first round. This guy can coach circles around Kevin McHale, but has just needed proper defensive play from his players.
Dallas may be the unluckiest West team outside of the Clippers this year, since they’ll be facing the toughest player to guard in the entire Western Conference. James Harden, who probably half the NBA players believe should be the MVP, has two motives to succeed in the first round this year.
First, Houston was shocked by Portland in the opening round last year, showing their true infirmities on defense. Harden was a lost cause defending the ball, guarding screen-rolls, and even the simple concept of defending corner shooters. He couldn’t do anything last year to stop dribble penetration, and it was clearly a lack of effort over a lack of skill — this is the same guy that made life hard on Kobe Bryant when he was a member of OKC’s godly trio.
Harden’s last six playoff games resulted in 50-of-133 shooting from the field, just 37.6%. That was last year’s Harden, and not this MVP candidate that’s two notches better. Extra motivation from Harden is coming the Mavericks’ way, both for individual redemption and to prove that a team heavily reliant on 3-pointers has what it takes in the West. The Suns from the mid-2000’s didn’t have enough to get out of the West with their strategy of launching constant bombs.
These Rockets are even more fierce with their outside attack, breaking the NBA’s record for most 3-pointers made in a season (933). For Mavericks supporters, being in the top 10 should give you enough hope to stay alive, being able to punch Houston back blow for blow. Dallas made the 7th-most triples this season — still 201 less than Houston — and did it with roughly the same efficiency. The offensive power isn’t a major concern.
What makes this matching alluring is that Dwight Howard only played in ONE of the four meetings between these division rivals. Battling injuries all year, Howard has only given Dallas 18 minutes of action to break down and figure out the best way to attack him.
The way Howard has slowly progressed since returning in late-March could spell bad news for Dallas, since he’s shooting 66.7% from the floor throughout April. Per 36 minutes, Howard is scoring 23.6 points and grabbing 15.2 rebounds since April 1, causing destruction on both the offensive and defensive glass. Dallas may not have an answer, unless Carlisle tries like hell to get him on the bench — in the fourth quarter, Houston will hate if Carlisle intentionally fouls Dwight on multiple possessions.
It’s really going to be make or break for Dallas when it comes to crashing the boards, since their defensive rebounding percentage of 72.2% is 29th overall in the league. The only team worse was the rubbish Timberwolves. Houston, however, puts a lot of emphasis on creating second-chance points. It’s partly why they’ve been able to take a lot more 3’s this year than normal, because they create outside shots on offensive boards. The Rockets’ offensive rebounding percentage has been the 7th-best in basketball for the last two seasons. At 26.8% this season, they could cause Dallas a world of trouble. Tyson Chandler has come on strong to end the year, though, grabbing 15 boards in just 25 minutes vs. Portland in the season finale.
The biggest cause for concern is clearly the perimeter, and how well Dallas elects to defend it.
During the season, it wasn’t a pretty sight to see the Mavericks’ defense torched from the outside, and the thought of bringing Rajon Rondo in to become “great” defensively didn’t prove to be accurate. Dallas has been respectable guarding the paint and rim this season, but have allowed too many outside shots. Since the Rondo trade, Dallas has allowed nearly 8 corner 3-point attempts per game, which is the 3rd-most in the league. In the 7.8 attempts they allow, their opponents have shot 38.5%.
Houston’s goal should be to exploit the perimeter defense, and use their rebounding bigs to create extra opportunities.
Chandler Parsons isn’t even certain to be a part of Game 1, since he’s been battling knee swelling and soreness. But, he’ll be facing the team that basically let him walk away to be (largely) paid. Against Houston this season, Parsons has accumulated a true shooting percentage of 59.1%, which is higher than his regular season percentage of 56.7%. He’s been ready to play against his former teammates that claimed he was “replaceable,” which ironically he has been.
Rondo will be the scapegoat if Dallas blows this series early on. The sentiment of keeping a point guard that will never be a threat from 15-feet extended is not strong in Dallas, especially since Dirk Nowitzki seems to be on his last stand for a title. The window is closing for Dallas to make a run, before Golden State just ignites a dynasty with their backcourt and Oklahoma City gets all their horses running again.
With Rondo on the floor vs. Houston this year, his offensive rating has been an abhorrent 92.7, which has caused his net rating to fall to -11.2. You can’t be on the floor against one of the highest-powered offenses in the playoffs when you can’t answer the damage on the other end. Houston will have their moments where everything is falling and a lead is piling up, and Dallas will be searching for answers. Rondo isn’t the one the provide those answers, given that teams usually feel like it’s playing 4-on-5 if he’s on the floor — you can help off Rondo in any scenario and smother Dallas’ shooters or post threats without worrying about Rondo. He’s shot just 38.2% in true shooting vs. Houston, something any college athlete could walk into the NBA right now and do.
Dallas was seriously lucky enough to start the year strong, or they may have fallen out of the playoffs with Rondo’s struggles for the whole year. New Orleans finished just five games under them, with The Brow missing a little chunk of the year.
One thing is for sure: Next season could mark the end to Dallas’ playoff hopes. Either one of the Pelicans or Mavericks will probably miss next year, because of Oklahoma City’s health rebirth. New Orleans isn’t getting any worse, in case you were wondering.
For the first time in Harden’s tenure with Houston, things are looking optimistic for them to walk to the second round.
Prediction: Rockets in 6