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NBA Playoff bracket based on defensive rating: Two frontrunners emerge

By Cal Durrett

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 25: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors goes to the basket against Jaren Jackson Jr. #13 of the Memphis Grizzlies in the fourth quarter at Chase Center on January 25, 2023 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images)
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 25: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors goes to the basket against Jaren Jackson Jr. #13 of the Memphis Grizzlies in the fourth quarter at Chase Center on January 25, 2023 in San Francisco, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) /
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The old adage that defense wins championships may not be as true as it once was, but it will still play a big role in the upcoming NBA playoffs. The NBA’s playoff brackets are nearly set, and the postseason begins in just a few days, starting with the play-in tournament. Both the East and West’s top-10 teams are already known, while the playoff order for the West’s play-in games will come down to the final night of the regular season.

No matter what, once the postseason begins, things will change. The NBA has seen a major increase in scoring this season, but that inevitably slows down in the playoffs with better defense, fewer fouls, and shorter rotations. That gives the better defensive teams a clear advantage. With that in mind, let’s look at the NBA Playoffs bracket based on defensive rating.

NBA Eastern Conference

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers-109.9
  2. Boston Celtics-110.5
  3. Milwaukee Bucks-110.8
  4. Chicago Bulls-111.8
  5. Philadelphia 76ers-112.8
  6. Miami Heat-112.9
  7. Toronto Raptors-113.2
  8. Brooklyn Nets-113.3
  9. New York Knicks-114.0
  10. Atlanta Hawks-115.3

When ranking playoff teams based solely on defense, the top-4 of the East get a shakeup. The Cavs, the fourth seed, have the best defense of any playoff team, followed by the Celtics and Bucks. Much like with the actual standings, there is little that separates the Celtics and Bucks, though the third-seeded 76ers are well behind them in regard to defense.

Interestingly enough, the Bulls, who may be one of two teams that may make the playoffs with a losing record, have the fourth-best defense in the East and the fifth-best defense in the entire NBA. Conversely, they are well below league average on offense, which accounts for their uneven play thus far this season.

In the back half of the East playoff bracket, the Knicks, Nets, and Hawks are fifth, sixth, and eighth, respectively. However, based on defensive rating, the Nets would fall to eighth, the Knicks to ninth, and the Hawks to a distant 10th. Speaking of the Hawks, they have the worst defense of any East team by a fairly large margin.

That probably doesn’t help their chances of making the playoffs via the play-in tournament. On a whole, the East appears to have better defensive teams, and the same goes for offense. Dare I say that the East is better?

NBA Western Conference

  1. Memphis Grizzlies-110.6
  2. New Orleans Pelicans-112.0
  3. Phoenix Suns-112.2
  4. Minnesota Timberwolves-113.2
  5. Los Angeles Lakers-113.2
  6. Oklahoma City Thunder-113.4
  7. Los Angeles Clippers-113.6
  8. Denver Nuggets-113.7
  9. Golden State Warriors-113.7
  10. Sacramento Kings-116.1

The West’s playoff bracket sees a major shakeup when based on defensive rating. The top-seeded Denver Nuggets are tied for the second-worst defense in the West and rank 15th out of the 20 teams that are in the playoffs or the play-in. Of course, they rely heavily on their offense, but if a team can slow them down, they may struggle without being able to fall back on their defense.

The Pelicans, despite currently being eighth in the West playoff race, would be the second seed while the Grizzlies would jump up to first. The Grizzlies are bolstered by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Jaren Jackson Jr. but will likely be without starting center Steven Adams for the playoffs, which could potentially hurt them.

Meanwhile, the Kings finally snapped a 14-year playoff drought, thanks to a historic offense. On the other hand, they have the worst defense of any of the teams listed by a surprisingly large margin. They’ll have to hope their offense keeps rolling at a high level to outpace their opponent. It’s possible, but they have a smaller margin of error.

Next. 1 nightmare matchup for the NBA's top seeds. dark

Overall, while the NBA has seen an offensive explosion this season, defense will still play an essential part in the playoffs. Based on defensive ratings, some of the top-4 seeds could be in trouble, while others may have enough balance to make the NBA Finals.