The Miami Heat added some depth to their power forward position by signing P.J. Tucker on August 2nd. The team gave Tucker a $15 million contract for two seasons. But is Tucker the right power forward for the Miami Heat? No, as Miami needs a power forward who can thrive in two different areas: on catch and shoots and from above the break.
The Miami Heat run an offense centered around dribble handoffs and pick-and-rolls. They averaged 8.3 dribble handoffs per game during last season: 2nd in the NBA. Duncan Robinson and Jimmy Butler took 42.2 percent of the dribble handoff possessions, combining for 3.5 per game.
Let’s take a look at why PJ Tucker doesn’t have a skill set to succeed with the Miami Heat and two players that would have been a better fit.
The Heat complemented their dribble handoff sets with pick and roll possessions as they averaged 17.9 per game: 22nd in the NBA. Head coach Erik Spoelstra, handed Butler 36.9 percent of the team’s pick and roll possessions as he averaged 6.6 per game.
The Miami Heat’s offense led to power forwards having to play the role of floor spacer. For instance, Andre Iguodala and Trevor Ariza took over 59 percent of their shots from behind the arc last season, averaging 2.9 and 4.8 per game, respectively.
At least 82 percent of those attempts were catch and shoots as they averaged 2.4 and 4 per game, respectively. A significant portion of those catch and shoot opportunities came from above the break as Iguodala and Ariza averaged 1.3 and 2.6 threes from above the break, respectively.
Tucker thrives in only one of these areas as he has converted 36.8 percent of his catch and shoots since 2013 on 3 attempts per game. However, he performs poorly from above the break, only converting 30.8 percent of his above-the-break threes on 0.8 shots per game.
If Miami wants the Tucker signing to succeed, they need to put him in the corner as he has converted 37.6 percent of his corner threes on 2.4 attempts per game.
Unfortunately, Erik Spoelstra has shown an unwillingness to change his offense in the past. Before arriving in Miami, Ariza was a player who excelled at shooting threes from the corner, converting 40.5 percent of his attempts on 2.4 shots per game.
Despite his track record on corner threes, Ariza only took 47.3 percent of his threes from the corner in Miami, averaging 2.1 per game. Therefore, it is unlikely that Spoelstra will make any changes for Tucker.
2 players who would have been better fits than PJ Tucker for the Miami Heat
Tucker’s struggles from above the break suggest that the Heat should have looked at other options to succeed in both areas during free agency. For instance, current free agent Ersan Ilyasova has converted 38.4 percent of his catch and shoot threes on 2.4 attempts since 2013.
Ilyasova has been able to complement his catch and shoot skillset with above-the-break success, as he has converted 36.6 percent of his above-the-break threes on 2.5 attempts per game. Another option could have been current free agent Lauri Markkanen.
Markkanen has converted 36.9 percent of his catch and shoot threes on 5.7 attempts per game. He also shoots better from above the break than Tucker, making 35.3 percent of his attempts on 5.2 shots per game.
The Miami Heat would have been better signing these two players as Tucker will most likely be put in a position to perform below expectations due to how Miami uses the power forward position.