Philadelphia 76ers: The bold case for pressing on with Ben Simmons

There is a perception around the league that the Philadelphia 76ers must end their partnership with point guard Ben Simmons if they want to win a championship next season. John Hollinger of The Athletic ($$) stated on June 21st that Philadelphia must trade Ben Simmons this offseason because he has lost his shooting confidence.

Before the 2021 postseason, Ben Simmons was known as a player who relied on his free throw shooting and getting close to the basket to do most of his offensive damage. Simmons took 62.1 percent of his shots inside of the restricted area as he averaged 7.2 per game. He converted 68 percent of those shots.

He was able to pair up his success inside the restricted area with mediocre (but acceptable, all things considered) free-throw shooting, as he shot 59.7 percent from the free-throw line on 4.9 attempts per game. Unfortunately, Simmons saw a decline in his free throw shooting during the playoffs. He shot 35.7 percent from the free-throw line on 5.6 attempts per game in the first round of the playoffs versus the Washington Wizards.

Let’s take a look at how Joel Embiid’s injury history plays a role in determining Ben Simmons’ future with the Philadelphia 76ers.

Simmons’ struggles led Atlanta Hawks’ head coach, Nate McMillan, to develop a game plan where the team would foul Ben Simmons on purpose if they were down in an attempt to give them a better chance to win the game. McMillian’s strategy worked as Simmons shot 33.3 percent from the free-throw line over the first five games on 6.1 attempts per game.

Simmons’ inability to make free throws during the playoffs affected his confidence, with about four minutes to go in Game 6, he drove to the basket, and instead of shooting the ball, he passed it to his teammate, Matisse Thybulle, out of reluctance of going to the free-throw line.

Although Simmons struggles from the free-throw line during the 2021 playoffs, it would be ill-advised for the Philadelphia 76ers to trade him due to the immediate and long-term health of his co-star, Joel Embiid. Embiid has been plagued with various injuries throughout his NBA career.

A week before the 2014 NBA draft, his agent at the time Arn Tellem told Adrian Wojnarowski that Embiid has suffered a stress fracture in his right foot, which would require surgery. The stress fracture would cost him his first season as a professional.

Embiid was slated to debut during the 2015-16 season. Unfortunately, the Philadelphia 76ers stated that the stress fracture wasn’t healing correctly. Although the team claimed that the stress fracture wasn’t healing correctly, Embiid admitted in 2017 that he tried to push the stress fracture before he was cleared to do so, causing the injury not to heal. Therefore, Embiid had to undergo another surgery to put a graft in the bone, allowing it to heal correctly.

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Unfortunately, mid-way through the third quarter of a home game against the Portland Trailblazers, Embiid came down awkwardly after dunking the basketball. The awkward fall caused him to tear his left meniscus, sidelining him for the rest of the season after playing 31 games.

Embiid would return at the beginning of the 2017-18 season. He stayed healthy for most of the year until the 75th game. In the 75th game, he collided with his former teammate, Markelle Fultz, and sustained a fracture to his left orbital bone. The fractured orbital bone would cause him to miss the next ten games, including two playoff games.

Embiid would end up returning during the third game of the team’s first-round playoff series against the Miami Heat, wearing a mask to protect his orbital bone from further damage. He would play the remainder of the playoffs with the mask until the 76ers got eliminated in the second round of the playoffs by the Boston Celtics.

Embiid would keep on experiencing injuries as he was sidelined for 56 percent of the second half of the 2018-19 season, missing 13 games with left knee tendinitis. The left knee tendonitis would cause him to miss a playoff game in the first round versus Brooklyn.

That wasn’t the last time Embiid would experience an injury as he suffered a slight tear in his right meniscus during game four of the team’s first-round playoff series this season against the Washington Wizards. Embiid’s injury history has caused him to miss 46.8 percent of the Philadelphia 76ers games, as he has been sidelined for a total of 295 regular-season games.

Would an incoming star have to carry the Philadelphia 76ers in Joel Embiid’s injury absences?

Consequently, if the team were to trade Ben Simmons for another superstar, like Damian Lillard, that incoming superstar would likely have to spend a significant portion of the season without Joel Embiid. If Embiid were to miss games in the regular season and the playoffs, it would hurt their seeding and make it difficult for them to beat the Brooklyn Nets and the Milwaukee Bucks due to a potential loss in home-court advantage.

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Consequently, the Philadelphia 76ers would be better off acquiring another point guard who is confident with shooting the basketball. For example, they could offer the mid-level exception (if they relinquish the bird rights of Danny Green, George Hill, and others) to players like Devonte’ Graham and Patty Mills, who are known to be above average shooting point guards.

Graham has converted 42 percent of his catch and shoots on 3.3 attempts per game. Catch and shoots have accounted for 45.8 percent of his shots, as he has shot 36.7 percent from behind the arc on 7.2 attempts per game since 2018. Devonte’ Graham is also an above-average free throw shooter as he has made 82.2 percent of his attempts on 2.7 shots per game.

If the Sixers cannot sign Devonte’ Graham, they should move on to Patty Mills, who has converted 39.9 percent of his catch and shoots on 3.2 attempts per game. Catch and shoots have accounted for 95.8 percent of his shots, as he has shot 38.8 percent from behind the arc on 3.3 attempts.

Patty Mills is also an above-average free throw shooter as he has made 85.8 percent of his field goals on one attempt per game. These players will allow head coach Doc Rivers to remove Ben Simmons from the game if opposing teams are fouling him intentionally for a point guard who is a more confident shooter. Furthermore, this move would also allow him to keep Ben Simmons on the roster if Joel Embiid suffers another significant injury.

The team has had success when Simmons is their main star as he averaged 15.6 points, 9.3 assists and 9.5 rebounds, shooting 61.1 percent from the field on 11.3 attempts per game. Simmons’ statistics helped the team go 8-0 in the final regular-season games of the 2017-18 season.

In conclusion, although Ben Simmons has struggled this postseason, Joel Embiid’s injury history makes it ill-advised for the team to get rid of him.