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The Washington Wizards and the history of the ninth pick

By N.B. Lindberg

WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 06: Rui Hachimura #8 of the Washington Wizards looks on prior to playing against the Atlanta Hawks at Capital One Arena on March 06, 2020 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 06: Rui Hachimura #8 of the Washington Wizards looks on prior to playing against the Atlanta Hawks at Capital One Arena on March 06, 2020 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images) /
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Washington Wizards (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Washington Wizards (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /

The Scrubs (Noah Vonleh- 2014, Trey Burke- 2013, Patrick O’Bryant- 2006, Ike Diogu- 2005, Mike Sweetney- 2003, Rodney White- 2001)

Chances: 40 percent

The ninth pick can be rough. This group has combined for a grand total of 37.5 Win Shares for an average of 6.25 Win Shares over the course of their careers. If there is a glimmer of hope to take from this group it’s that the two best careers are from the two most recent draftees. Trey Burke and Noah Vonleh, while by no means All-Stars, are solid NBA rotation pieces. Every team wants to snag an All-Star with their lottery pick, but the difference between making the playoffs and having the ninth pick many times comes down to who has the deeper rotation.

The Washington Wizards will hope to avoid ending up with a Trey Burke type again, literally and figuratively, but scrubs only make up six of the 15 players in this sample. So while a 40 percent chance of ending up with a bust isn’t ideal, it does mean there’s a coin flip’s chance the Wizards end up with a franchise centerpiece.

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The Stars (Andre Drummond- 2012, Kemba Walker- 2011, Gordon Hayward- 2010, DeMar DeRozan- 2009, Joakim Noah- 2007, Andre Iguodala- 2004, Amar’e Stoudemire- 2002)

Chances: 46.67 percent

A starting lineup of Drummond, Walker, Hayward, DeRozan, and Iguodala might just get you in contention for a championship in 2020 and if it wasn’t for injuries Noah and Stoudemire might still be contributors in the league. These players represent the best-case scenario for the ninth pick. Outside of Stoudemire, none of these players ever got serious MVP consideration, but every single one of them has made an All-Star team.

As a group, they have averaged 69.6 Win Shares, but that number will only continue to rise as Drummond, Walker, Hayward, and DeRozan finish out their prime years. The Wizards would likely trade the ninth pick for any of those four players in a heartbeat. What’s amazing is how from 2007 to 2012 the 9th pick produced five All-stars from six drafts, which is the same as what the first pick produced over that period.

The Washington Wizards, if recent history is to be believed, have a 46.67 chance at landing a future All-Star with the ninth pick.

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