The Washington Wizards hold the ninth pick in the NBA draft. What are the chances they find a franchise centerpiece? History says the odds are in their favor.
The Washington Wizards, for a second consecutive year, have the ninth pick in the NBA draft. While it is too early to know if Rui Hachimura, their 2019 pick, is the real deal, he has shown enough to suggest a long NBA career. Who the Wizards select in 2020 will hopefully be running next to Hachimura for years to come. The franchise’s future will in large part be determined by how these two prospects end up developing. It is said that history repeats itself, so what does the history of the ninth pick tell us about the Wizards’ future?
(Note: In this article Win Shares are going to be used to delve into the historical value of players drafted with the ninth pick. Here is a quick Win Shares boot camp if it is a new statistic for you, but if you want the full-monty, here is the Basketball Reference link. Every league season there are as many Win Shares as there are games played, and as such, in every game, a single Win Share is up for grabs. A player’s total Win Shares is an approximation of how many wins they contributed to their team. In a full season, around 10 Win Shares means you’re approximately a top 10 player, more and you’re an MVP candidate, fewer you’re an All-Star, starter, rotation piece, bench warmer, and on down.)
The NBA draft, held annually since 1947, has seen ninth overall picks produce an average of 35.6 Win Shares over the course of their careers. To put a real human face to that number, Roy Hibbert, in his nine-season career, produced 35.9 Win Shares. In essence, the ninth pick turns out to be Roy Hibbert, which is as unexciting as it sounds.
However, not every ninth pick is destined to be Roy Hibbert. The two greatest ninth picks, in terms of career Win Shares, came in consecutive drafts in 1998 and 1999. The two are Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion. Nowitzki’s 206.3 Win Shares are the eighth-most in history and Marion’s 124.9 are 46th. So while the 9th pick on average is a Roy Hibbert type, it can also turn out to be a franchise cornerstone.
The NBA is a lot different now than it was in 1947, 1977, and even 1997. How the career of the ninth pick from 1954, Ed Kalafat, panned out doesn’t offer much insight into how the ninth pick from 2020 will turn out. Looking at just the players drafted ninth overall in the 21st century, an interesting trend emerges. The average Win Shares produced by these players has been 31.03 but not a single player in the sample is even within 5.0 Win Shares of that number for their career.
If the past five drafts are excluded, as the players haven’t had enough time to accumulate career Win Shares, players taken with the ninth pick fall into two distinct categories: Players who produce over 40.0 career Win Shares and counting, and players who have produced less than 20.0 career Win Shares, or, in layman’s terms, stars and scrubs. So what are the chances that the Wizards end up with a star or a scrub?