Indiana Pacers: What the Sabonis injury offers T.J. Leaf
Plantar fasciitis suffered by Sabonis leaves a hole in the Indiana Pacers frontcourt, one that might afford T.J. Leaf the opportunity he’s been waiting for.
There’s no maneuvering around the seismic impact Domantas Sabonis’ foot injury has on the Indiana Pacers. Gone likely for the remainder of the season is their lone All-Star, second-leading scorer and one of only two players in the entire NBA eclipsing 18 points, 12 rebounds and five assists per game.
Given the state of the Eastern Conference’s top tier, Indy was never more than a second-round team, not even at full strength. The absence of Sabonis and potentially Victor Oladipo then raises the question of what the Pacers hope to gain from their bubble experience.
At the very least, having to fill 34.8 nightly frontcourt minutes should allow Indiana to finally assess the big man they originally envisioned assuming that role.
T.J. Leaf was taken by the Pacers with the 17th pick in the 2017 Draft. Eight days later, Sabonis was brought in via the trade that sent away Paul George, putting Leaf behind the eight-ball before he could ever dictate otherwise.
He looked to be everything required of the modern big man during his lone season at UCLA. At least at the offensive end, where he produced 16.3 points on 61.7 percent shooting, canning 27 of his 58 3-point attempts to go with 8.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists in a shade under 30 minutes a night.
That long-range stroke has been teased at the highest level, where Leaf has gone a combined 31-for-87 from downtown for a modest 35.7 percent clip in his three pro seasons. He’s also flashed some pick-and-pop prowess that includes stepping beyond the arc.
It’s hard not to notice the different elements Leaf brings compared to Sabonis, who prefers to take a few steps in before letting fly. With Sabonis in that position, his presence near the free-throw line would theoretically allow Thaddeus Young to simultaneously defend both him and T.J. Warren, keeping Indiana from the quality shot Leaf’s outside stroke produced.
Not a knock against someone with the fifth-best mid-range shooting percentage among bigs with at least 2.0 attempts per game. Just an observation of the analytics-friendly contributions Leaf brings that the Pacers could develop to their advantage.
For a team that ranks 29th and 30th in threes made and attempted per game, respectively, Leaf could prove a much-needed wrinkle to a middling offense, but the minutes haven’t been there.
Leaf has totaled 1,174 minutes in his three NBA seasons (8.6 a game), 18th most among his fellow 2017 draft mates. Ahead of him are names like Ivan Rabb and even Markelle Fultz, none of whom come within 30 of Leaf’s 136 games played.
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If ever a time for experimentation existed for the Pacers, it would be down in the bubble with all these Sabonis minutes to fill. Especially considering the potential good it could bring in the coming years to a bench ranked 20th in scoring this season.
Warren can downsize to the four spot, but he’s been a minus-1.2 there this season according to Cleaning The Glass, compared to a plus-3.8 at his natural small forward position.
Doug McDermott has been a bright spot off the bench, a 44.5 percent 3-point shooter with over half his minutes coming at the power forward spot. Already averaging 20.0 minutes a night, there’s only so much more playing time he can assume. Even if named a starter in place of Sabonis.
That leaves Leaf, a player drafted one spot ahead of Atlanta’s John Collins. The two entered the NBA at 19 and 20, respectively. Only one saw the early minutes that helped him grow into one of six players with 20-10 averages on the year.
A lack of strength and lateral quickness make Leaf a concern at the defensive end, but the Indiana Pacers have one of the more ideal centers to pair him with in the frontcourt. Myles Turner has been one of the better defensive big men all season, agile and lanky while ranking fifth in blocks per game.
Having finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season, Turner is the type to clean up many of his teammates’ mistakes, including Leaf. In return, the two can create a five-out attack to better the Pacers’ 17th-ranked offense.
After trading their franchise star, Indy began competing sooner than expected, right away actually thanks to the emergence of Oladipo. It altered their timeline and course of action for a player who needed what his circumstances could suddenly no longer provide.
Those conditions have changed, and it’s time the Indiana Pacers make the best of a less than ideal situation in ways that can only be to their benefit whenever their two All-Stars return at full strength.