Sixers: What happens when Joel Embiid’s playoff minutes are increased?

Brett Brown declared that he wanted to see Joel Embiid’s playoff minutes increased to 38 per game. What could this do for the Sixers?

There are a lot of talents applicable to any workplace or field of interest. In the NBA, it’s hard to find more valuable talents than scoring or shooting, but if there’s something that could be more important for the best players in the league, it’s availability. For the Philadelphia 76ers, the availability they most need is that of Joel Embiid.

Whether you consider Embiid or Ben Simmons to be the Sixers’ best player, things function better when Emiid is on the floor than when he’s off it. This season the team has a +4.6 net rating when he’s on, and just -0.3 when he’s off. A year ago, the difference was even more stark; the Sixers were +7.5 when he was on and -2.5 when he was off the floor. Two years ago, they were +11.4 when he was on and -1.3 when he was on the bench.

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The problem is that Embiid’s availability has not been reliable over the course of his career, no matter how good he is when he plays. He’s never played more than 64 games in a season, the number of appearances he made last year. Even this year, playing 44 of a possible 65 games, he was on pace for just 56 games (we’ll round up from 55.5).

Some of this stems directly from injury issues, and some from scheduled rest on back-to-backs as the Philadelphia 76ers look to preserve him for the playoffs when those minutes and games really count.

In the playoffs, the Sixers have been a completely different beast with Joel Embiid. Even though his counting numbers were pedestrian last year, averaging 20.2 points and 10.5 rebounds per game on 42.8 percent shooting, his team needed him desperately in order to function against the Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets.

The problem is that even though he was able to play all but one playoff game of the 12 the Sixers played last playoffs, his minutes load was low for a starting center in the postseason. He averaged just 30.4 minutes per game.

The gap between his minutes on and off the floor was absolutely surreal. When he was on the floor, the Sixers outscored the opposition by 20.4 points per 100 possessions. When he was off, the Sixers got outscored by 20.9 points per 100. This 41.3 net swing is utterly unfathomable.

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Perhaps nowhere was this difference more vivid than in the final playoff game the Sixers played last year. In a 92-90 Game 7 loss to the Raptors, Joel Embiid played 45 minutes and 12 seconds. The 76ers were +10 in his minutes, meaning that in the 2 minutes and 48 seconds he sat, they were outscored by 12 points.

Give the Toronto Raptors credit for being opportunistic, and fault Embiid’s Sixers teammates for not being able to pick up the slack when he was off the floor.

Depth at the center spot was an issue last season. When Embiid was off, Greg Monroe was the primary backup. It’s not a good situation to be in, and in this game in particular, Monroe was -9 in the 1:41 he played. This season things are different. Al Horford can play center or power forward and gives Embiid a bit more margin for error, but expectations for him are higher now.

In the Philadelphia 76ers’ morning Zoom press conference on Tuesday, head coach Brett Brown indicated that he was hoping Joel Embiid would be able to play 38 minutes per game in the playoffs. This would be a huge leap compared to last season where he only played more than 35 minutes three times in 11 games. Even this year in the regular season he’s only played more than 38 minutes once, a 41-minute effort against the Brooklyn Nets (he was +24 in a 112-104 win).

The Sixers do need every minute Joel Embiid can give them once the playoffs begin, whether Al Horford is around or not. There’s truly no replacing him, and his presence means the world to the organization.

The only question left to ask is this: Can he physically do it?