Miami Heat: Ranking favorability of prospective playoff opponents
The “tough” tier
A series against either team in this tier could go either way. These teams currently sit above Miami in the standings – meaning they most likely will be Miami’s opponent in the second round – and would probably be favored to win a series against the Heat.
Toronto Raptors
The reigning champions are still a stellar squad despite Kawhi Leonard’s departure for LA. Yet, Miami only knows success against Toronto this season. The Heat beat the second-seeded Raptors in the only two games between them, one of which was an overtime victory in Toronto.
All-Stars Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam lead the Raptors’ attack. Most of the rotation from last year’s team is back and still wreaking havoc.
Toronto’s defense suffocates its opponents, boasting aggressive perimeter defenders and strong interior presences. The Raptors hold their opponents to 106.5 points per game and 33.7 percent shooting from the deep, both of which rank lowest in the league.
The Raptors’ offense is a 3-point factory. They rank fourth in triples per game and seventh in 3-point percentage. Out of the 10 Raptors that play the most minutes per game, six of them shoot over 38 percent and two shoot around the league average. All eight take at least three triples per game. The two outliers are Patrick McCaw and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.
Toronto and Miami would be a closely-fought series. Toronto would have a homecourt advantage, but either team could realistically win.
Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics are the only Eastern Conference team Miami hasn’t beaten this season. The Celtics defeated the Heat in both games played and led the entire second half both times.
All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker are the keys to Boston’s dominance. Both are stellar scorers. Walker is a strong playmaker and Tatum has emerged as a very stout defender. Two other strong scorers on the wing in Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward and defensive extraordinaire guard Marcus Smart also propel the Celtics forward.
Boston excels offensively (fifth-highest offensive rating and sixth-lowest turnover percentage) and defensively (fourth-highest defensive rating, sixth in blocks per game and seventh in steals per game).
As the name of this tier indicates, a series against Boston would be tough for Miami. Although the Celtics held them off in the regular season, the Heat are talented enough to defeat them in the postseason.