Miami Heat: Ranking favorability of prospective playoff opponents
The “pretty tough” tier
Teams in this tier will challenge Miami but likely wouldn’t be favored to beat the Heat in a series. Both teams have a record of 39-26, meaning either one could be the fifth seed and play the fourth-seeded Heat in a first-round series.
Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers, who currently own the conference’s fifth seed, lost to Miami in both of their contests this season. However, one of those games was a back-and-forth battle that was decided by a Goran Dragic bucket with six seconds left.
Indiana’s defense is its catalyst for success with a defensive rating ranked seventh in the league. Shot swatting center Myles Turner anchors the unit and ranks fourth in the league in blocks per game. Indy holds opponents to 61.6 percent shooting from 0-3 feet and 34.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc, which are the third and tied-for-sixth lowest percentages in the league.
Indiana is led by first-time All-Star big man Domantas Sabonis. The 6’11” big is an effective screener and passer out of the high post. Since he can also shoot mid-range shots well, it’ll be hard for Miami to deploy its 2-3 zone against him.
Miami would also need to prepare for two-time All-Star guard Victor Oladipo. The 2017-18 Most Improved Player is a fierce defender and skilled scorer. Although he only played in 13 games this season due to recovering from an injury from last season, Miami should make sure he doesn’t get going.
A series between Miami and Indiana would be a hard-fought battle. It would also reheat the beef between Jimmy Butler and T.J. Warren.
Philadelphia 76ers
The sixth-seeded Philadelphia 76ers are also a monstrous defensive force. Behind All-Stars Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, Philadelphia holds its opponents to 107.4 points, which is tied for the fifth-lowest mark in the NBA, and rank top-10 in steals and blocks per game.
Simmons and Embiid dominate both ends but have not been consistently great playoff performers. Embiid is the most dominant post-up scorer in the league and an intimidating paint protector. Simmons, a candidate for a Defensive Player of the Year, possesses great playmaking and finishing abilities.
Shot creating wings Tobias Harris and Josh Richardson provide offensive support – Richardson helps defensively, too – and veteran big man Al Horford can still defend and make plays.
The Heat handled the Sixers well during the regular season, winning three times in four games and dropping a season-high 137 points against Philly in February.
Philly would still most likely be a challenging opponent. Its key players are playoff-tested and physically imposing. The jumbo-sized roster makes for an unappealing offense but is still a stout group on defense. Under playoff intensity, that defense could prove to be even more stout.