Miami Heat: Ranking favorability of prospective playoff opponents
The “no problem” tier
These three teams probably won’t pose a serious threat to Miami. Barring any upsets in the first round, the Heat would only face them if they climb higher in the standings, as these are the bottom three teams that are still alive.
Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic, Miami’s Southeast Division rival, is currently the eighth seed. Should Miami find itself in a playoff series against the only “home team” in this setup, it would be a quick series.
The Heat faced the eighth-seeded Magic four times this season, losing the first and winning the rest. Orlando’s 108.0 offensive rating is the lowest of all the returning 22 teams and ranks 24th in the league. However, the Magic’s 109.0 defensive rating ranks ninth in the league.
The Magic will be without their best defender, third-year forward Jonathan Isaac. The Magic gave up 104.6 points in the 32 games Isaac played and 110.0 in games he didn’t. Isaac’s defensive rating of 102 is one of the best marks in the league.
Stopping 2019 All-Star Nikola Vucecic would be the most important task. Evan Fournier also needs to be held in check. As long as those two don’t light it up, the Heat will make quick work of their in-state foes.
Brooklyn Nets
Kyrie Irving not returning this season makes the Brooklyn Nets an easier opponent to conquer. Irving – who was absent in all three Miami-Brooklyn matchups this season, two of which were Miami victories – would have given the Heat’s defense fits with his scoring prowess. But he likely wouldn’t have been enough to lift Brooklyn to victory over Miami in the postseason.
The Nets will still have Spencer Dinwiddie at their disposal. The 6’5” point guard put up at least 25 points against the Heat in all three contests this season.
Dinwiddie should put up a good fight but the seventh-seeded Nets most likely won’t win a playoff series against the Heat. The Nets’ offense is subpar, ranking 23rd in the league in offensive rating, 26th in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage.
The Nets’ defense, though, is pretty strong. Their opponents’ field goal percentage is tied for the fourth-lowest mark in the league and their defensive rating ranks eighth.
Even with a good defense, Brooklyn doesn’t appear to be strong enough to knock Miami out of the playoffs.
Washington Wizards
The lone Eastern Conference team not in playoff position wouldn’t pose much of a threat to Miami if it were. The Wizards lost three of their four games against Miami this season.
Miami knows how to ground Washington’s high-flying offensive attack, holding them to bellow their season average of 115.6 points twice, including a tied-for-season-low 89 points in their last matchup.
Bradley Beal, the league’s second-leading scorer, would be the main target for Miami’s defense. Although he was out in the lone game Washington won against Miami, Beal is crucial to their success. He’s a dangerous and versatile scoring machine and the Heat will need to figure out how to contain him.
Outside Beal, the Wizards don’t have any other reliable shot creators. Davis Bertans’ shooting is red hot, but if Miami can always keep an eye on him and deny him open looks from deep, he won’t be a threat.
Despite Beal’s talents, the Wizards’ abysmal defense spells doom for them. Their defensive rating ranks dead last in the NBA and is the second-worst in NBA history. Miami would beat Washington in no more than five games.