Oklahoma City Thunder: Previewing the 2020 offseason

Nerlens Noel

For a team known for it’s three wily veterans and one up-and-coming guard, backup big Nerlens Noel has been at least the Oklahoma City Thunder’s fifth-best player this year (apologies to Dennis Schröder). At just 18 minutes per game and a lot of minutes against bench units, Noel’s advanced stats are a bit inflated. But still… wow.

Among all players with 1000 or more minutes played this season, Noel ranks second in defensive box plus-minus (+3.4) behind only Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Is he really at that level defensively? Maybe not. But NBA bench players are still basically mutants, and he locks them down. Still not convinced? Cut his DBPM in half and it still ranks inside the top 40.

https://twitter.com/ESPNNBA/status/1089677386570973185?s=20

The only reason Noel doesn’t play more with OKC’s starters is Steven Adams. Adams may be overpaid but he’s very good, and the Thunder can’t play him and Noel together without losing the spacing their weird three-guard lineup relies on. When Noel plays with the other starters, OKC is still dominant (NBA).

With just one year left on the 26-year-old Adams’ huge contract, the 25-year-old Noel makes sense for OKC to retain no matter what direction the franchise goes. They can continue to split the 48 available center minutes each night, at least for the 2020-21 season.

Beyond next year, he projects somewhere between an overqualified backup big and fourth-best guy on a good team. Any outcome in that range makes it easier for OKC to part ways with Adams if he refuses to accept the bearish market for non-shooting bigs.

The Thunder may try to avoid giving Noel the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception (roughly four years/$40 million), but Noel and his Klutch Sports team would be foolish not to ask for it.