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Philadelphia 76ers: Dealing with Ben Simmons’ possible extended absence

By Duncan Smith

PHILADELPHIA, PA - FEBRUARY 09: Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers dribbles the ball as Matisse Thybulle #22 runs up the court against the Chicago Bulls at the Wells Fargo Center on February 9, 2020 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The 76ers defeated the Bulls 118-111. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - FEBRUARY 09: Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers dribbles the ball as Matisse Thybulle #22 runs up the court against the Chicago Bulls at the Wells Fargo Center on February 9, 2020 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The 76ers defeated the Bulls 118-111. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
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After leaving the Philadelphia 76ers’ game against the Milwaukee Bucks with a back injury, Ben Simmons may miss extended time pending an MRI on Monday.

Chills ran through Philadelphia 76ers fans everywhere on Saturday night when Ben Simmons went to the bench with a back injury against the Milwaukee Bucks. This came after missing a game on Thursday against the Brooklyn Nets with this same injury, and it’s believed Simmons’ injury may have been suffered on Wednesday at practice.

Those chills may have turned to anger when it became evident that Simmons was going to the locker room for treatment during breaks and stoppages, putting him in a situation where he could aggravate this injury further.

Kyle Neubeck of the PhillyVoice explains:

"“During Saturday night’s game, ABC had an in-game report that Simmons was expected to retreat to the locker room in order to receive treatment on his back between playing stints, which they revealed shortly after he left the court for good early in the first quarter. While a team source told PhillyVoice Simmons’ early removal from the game was dictated by Simmons himself, who asked to be pulled and looked at after experiencing discomfort, they confirmed the initial plan was to have Simmons receiving treatment away from the court throughout the night in order to play.”"

Per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, Simmons will undergo further testing on Monday after receiving a preliminary evaluation on Saturday:

The Philadelphia 76ers are notorious for issues with their medical staff and the decision of playing Ben Simmons through an injury that required frequent in-game attention looks like it could be just one more chapter in a dismal run spanning multiple front office administrations.

Now the Sixers must wait to learn their fate as well as the fate of Simmons himself. At the very least, he will miss Monday night’s game against the Atlanta Hawks, but the organization should brace itself for bad news and expect an extended absence as they enter the stretch run and prepare for the playoffs.

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It will be a unique test for center Joel Embiid, co-star of this Sixers team. Given Simmons’ unique attributes and weaknesses, the fit between the two has always been awkward, leading to speculation that one of the two should be traded.

While you’d assume a trade of Simmons would net some return that puts talent on the floor right away, this experience will give us the chance to see what an Embiid-without-Simmons world would look like for the Philadelphia 76ers.

Embiid has only played 817 possessions without Ben Simmons this season, and the Sixers have performed well with a +6.3 net rating, but even a sample like this is noisy.

Situations where Embiid led units facing opposing reserves with Simmons off the floor could play a large role, as could the three games Simmons has missed so far. Two of those games were wins against the Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets, and the third was a close loss to the Denver Nuggets.

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The Philadelphia 76ers have overachieved statistically when Joel Embiid has played and Ben Simmons has sat. For example, they are rebounding at a rate of 53.3 percent. Over the course of a full season, that would be a full percentage point better than the NBA’s current leader, the Bucks, who rebound at a rate of 52.3 percent.

They also allowed their opponents to shoot just 33.9 percent from 3-point range, a rate which would tie with the second-best percentage of the Toronto Raptors. This is without their best perimeter defender.

Sixer opponents have shot just 68.8 percent from the free throw line. That would be miles better than the Sixers’ full-season rate of 73.9 percent, currently leading the NBA. Needless to say, it’s hard to limit opponent free throw percentage and that speaks to the uncanny variance that has gone in their favor so far over this sample.

From a statistical perspective, at a glance it seems like the Sixers might not be so bad off with Simmons out, but a deeper look reveals unsustainable luck that has boosted them thus far.

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Their playoff hopes are doomed if Ben Simmons misses the rest of the season, but their regular season prospects are grim as well. Fortunately, there’s no way they miss the playoffs given the poor status of their Eastern Conference competitors, but backing into the postseason to set up a merciless beating at the hands of the Boston Celtics or Raptors is nobody’s idea of fun.

On/off stats courtesy of NBA Wowy