The Orlando Magic need Nikola Vucevic to play like an All-Star

The Orlando Magic have had a disappointing season so far, but some improvement from Nikola Vucevic could turn things around.

At this time a year ago, the Orlando Magic were celebrating Nikola Vucevic‘s All-Star appearance. This was a franchise that really didn’t have much to celebrate since Dwight Howard was traded in 2012.

Vucevic finished the season with career-highs in points and rebounds while showing flashes of a legitimate three-point stroke. He became the third player in franchise history to average 20 points and 10 rebounds in a season, putting him in the company of Shaquille O’Neal and Howard. Still, with Vucevic’s free agency pending, there was some reason for doubt.

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No one ever mistook Vucevic for an All-Star before last season, and he just happened to make the leap in his contract year. But the Magic took the plunge anyway and signed him to a four-year, $100 million contract.

A rebuilding franchise committed 20 percent of their salary cap to a 29-year-old center while the modern NBA is shifting away from big men. The move was questionable. In Vucevic’s defense, he clearly worked on the ever-important three-point shot to try and make himself more useful in the offense.

That may be part of the problem. With his team struggling so far this season, it seems like Vooch has fallen in love with the long ball.

Vucevic began to ease into the three-point shot in 2016-17 with one attempt per game. As of now, he’s averaging 4.9 attempts from downtown and almost equaled his three-point attempt total from a year ago. But the big man isn’t making the same shots he made last season.

In 2018-19, defenses weren’t guarding Vucevic from beyond the arc. According to NBA.com, he launched 183 of his 222 three-point attempts while he was “wide open.”

(Wide open means there isn’t a defender within 6 or more feet of the player when he takes the shot.)

He took full advantage of his situation and converted his “wide open” triples at a 39.9 percent clip (via NBA.com). This season, Vucevic hasn’t been so lucky.

The $100 million man is converting on just 33.9 percent of his open threes and it’s not that teams are getting out on him this year either. He’s still open all the time—186 of his 218 attempts are “wide open”—but they’re just not falling.

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No player in the league averages more wide open shots per game than Nikola Vucevic. He’s shooting an abysmal 35.2 percent overall on those beneficial looks. So things haven’t been great, but they haven’t been terrible either. They’ve just slipped.

Allow me to full-on nerd out for a bit. A quick look at Cleaning The Glass (paywall) shows us that Orlando hasn’t played as well with Vucevic on the court as they did last season.

In 2018-19, Vucevic had a net rating of +9.8 points per 100 possessions. The Magic played like a 52 win team with their big man on the court and a 27 win team with him off it. In 44 games this season, his net rating slipped to +2.2. The Orlando Magic are effectively a 40-win team with him and a 34-win team without him.

Vucevic was in the 86th percentile of mid-range accuracy during the 2018-19 season, making 321 of his 692 attempts. A season later, he’s dipped to the 65th percentile. That’s not terrible, but it explains why his field goal percentage has dropped significantly. His accuracy at the rim slipped even further.

But the biggest question of all: Should Vucevic defy all logic and take more mid-range jumpers? Sure, the NBA whispers mid-range like wizards whisper Lord Voldemort’s name, but when Vucevic was an All-Star, he took 50 percent of his attempts from long range.