Dallas Mavericks: Going forward with Kristaps Porzingis

The blockbuster trade for Kristaps Porzingis has thrown the Dallas Mavericks into a state of flux, but it has made the future bright in several key ways.

“Audaces fortuna Iuvat.” – Virgil

Roughly translated: Fortune favors the bold.

It seems nearly unanimous that, in the short-term at least, the Dallas Mavericks made a very good trade when they acquired Kristaps Porzingis as the centerpiece of a deal with the New York Knicks this week. The real result of this bold action is that the Mavs might now be set up for success for years to come.

First, let’s go over all the parts that switched sides:

Those first round picks are “likely” to convey in 2021 and 2023 because of the Stepien Rule, which prevents teams from trading first round picks in consecutive years. The first-rounder due to the Atlanta Hawks for the Luka Doncic trade will convey in 2019 unless the Mavericks get a top-five pick. The first of the picks going to New York will move two years after that, with the top-10 protected pick going to the Knicks two years after that.

It’s pretty clear what the Knicks get out of the deal: gobs and gobs of cap space by unloading some large, long-term contracts. That New York also gets some good draft picks is whipped cream on the sundae. The Mavericks’ benefits also seem clear, but they may be a little muddier. Dallas is far from stuck in the muck, however.

Finishing this season

For the remainder of the 2018-19 season, the Dallas Mavericks will be in a tough spot. Kristaps Porzingis is unlikely to play for more than a month or two and will probably not be at full strength when he does, due to the ACL tear that has kept the young Latvian out since February of 2018.

The Mavericks still have the gleam in their eye that is Luka Doncic, of course, and second-leading scorer Harrison Barnes hasn’t gone anywhere either. Their defense and rebounding will take a hit without Wesley Matthews and DeAndre Jordan, and despite being less-than-thrilled with his role, Dennis Smith Jr. still gave Dallas an occasional spark. Of course, his most recent spark may have lit this trade on fire.

Trey Burke will presumably take the backup point guard role, while Tim Hardaway Jr. will move into the starting shooting guard spot. Courtney Lee will most likely (hopefully?) be a defense and energy guy off the bench. With Luka, Hardaway, Barnes, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Jalen Brunson, Lee, and Burke, the rotation is acceptable-to-good for positions 1-4.

Dwight Powell, however, being the only center left puts a focus on him, Finney-Smith and Kleber to rebound as well as defend any of the larger centers they face. The Milwaukee Bucks on Feb. 8 will be a test of their mettle for sure.

The playoffs were going to be a long shot for the Mavericks anyway, and this trade will not help that in any meaningful way unless Porzingis comes back in full angry Unicorn mode. Dallas currently sits in 12th place in the Western Conference and is 4.5 games behind the eighth-place Los Angeles Clippers. Sneaking into the playoffs would be a great accomplishment for a growing team with a teenage star, especially one without its own first round draft pick this year, but that was not the point of this trade.

Future seasons

Next season is when things have to start coming together for Kristaps Porzingis and the Dallas Mavericks. The hope is that the Zinger will stay healthy all season and get back to the 22.7 points per game and 39.5 percent 3-point shooting he was at before his injury. If that happens and Doncic continues to grow, then 20-year-old Luka and 24-year-old Kristaps would be a fearsome duo.

A potential stick in the spokes could be Porzingis’ restricted free agency this summer. Presumably the Mavericks would offer Kristaps the largest available contract extension of five years for a total of $158 million, or at least a modified deal that would pay less should an injury occur, similar to what Joel Embiid got. If the Mavs offer it and Porzingis signs the deal, then the only worry is the constant terror of recurring injuries. There is another issue that has popped up since the trade though.

Porzingis signing the qualifying offer would mean that he would take a one-year, $4.5 million contract for the 2019-20 season and become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Obviously this would be bad for Dallas, because he would likely only do this if he wanted to go somewhere else. Of course, a young player with a significant injury history turning down a high-money, multi-year contract for a qualifying offer would be unheard of. In fact, no lottery player has ever taken the qualifying offer after their first contract. It seems unlikely.

So, assuming Kristaps starts cashing those checks, the rest of the roster would presumably be similar. The Mavericks have basically eaten up all of their cap space by taking Hardaway and Lee along with Porzingis. While getting a young, potential superstar is the goal of that cap space, it still means that the team can’t fill out much depth. They will likely try to keep Finney-Smith and Kleber, but there won’t be much else unless there is another move, or Harrison Barnes decides to not pick up his player option for next season (read on when you’re done laughing at that one).

Whether a starting lineup of Doncic, Hardaway, Barnes, Finney-Smith, and Porzingis is a playoff team in the West largely depends on how transcendent Luka and Kristaps are, but it’s hard to envision that team making too large a wave. The Barnes and Powell expiring contracts could be trade chips, but it’s still hard to see right now.

The 2020-21 season is the next time the Mavericks can realistically make big changes. Barnes and Powell will be either off the payroll or re-signed on better deals. Doncic will still be on a rookie contract. Porzingis will be locked down. The only other current contracts that will still be on the books are $1.6 million for Jalen Brunson and the final $19 million year for Tim Hardaway, which is technically a player option but come on, of course that’s being picked up.

That means that the Mavericks could potentially start the 2020-21 season with a lot of available money, two stars that are still under 26, and tons of potential. All they need to do is not fill up the team with large contracts for second-rate players. But hey, audaces fortuna Iuvat.