San Antonio Spurs: Finding the analytically perfect rotation

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Guiding principles

Rule 1: No Pau Gasol, Quincy Pondexter or Derrick White

Pau Gasol has been injured for all but nine games this year, and might be out a while longer. I don’t want to use any stats with him, since there are all sorts of small sample size issues.

Quincy Pondexter has been fine this year, I suppose. He’s appeared in most of the San Antonio Spurs’ games, but he is only averaging 6.3 minutes per appearance. He has played only eight more minutes than Gasol, despite playing 26 games to Gasol’s nine. Let’s leave him out too.

Derrick White is the surprise here, as many expected him to be quite good this year. Perhaps he’s still hampered by an injury, but his confidence has definitely taken a hit. He has the worst offensive rating of anyone on the team other than raw rookie Chimezie Metu. Perhaps in April he’ll be looking good, but he doesn’t look great now.

Rule 2: Start and stagger LaMarcus Aldridge and Jakob Poeltl

Since Gasol’s injury, Jakob Poeltl has played quite well — well enough to deserve a starting spot. However, with him and LaMarcus Aldridge the only two players really capable of playing center (I won’t be utilizing Metu or Drew Eubanks either), they’ll have to spend a lot of time apart so one of them is always on the floor.

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Rule 3: Only use Dante Cunningham and Davis Bertans as small-ball 4s

Dante Cunningham has been one of the better offseason additions by the San Antonio Spurs, and Davis Bertans has always been a solid stretch-4. Neither of them really has the size or strength to battle with centers down low, though. Bertans is close, but his physical limitations make him a poor backline defender.

Similarly, their athleticism leaves a bit to be desired on the wing. Cunningham might be able to survive chasing 3s around, but I’d prefer for him to stay against 4s. There are enough minutes there that it all works out. Of course, this does essentially force Rudy Gay to stay at the 3 full-time, but he’s done incredibly well this year there.

Compared to Cunningham, Bertans is the weaker defender but also the more prolific shooter. It makes sense to put him with Poeltl, who’s a better defender but worse shooter than Aldridge. This should leave both bench platoons more well-balanced.

Rule 5: Stagger DeMar DeRozan and Aldridge

Staggering Aldridge and Bertans was a simple matter of soaking up minutes. Staggering DeRozan and Aldridge is to give the San Antonio Spurs an offensive focal point in every unit, allowing them both to go to their work in the mid-range. This ends up meaning DeRozan and Poeltl’s minutes are mostly matched up, which is good because their pick-and-roll chemistry has been a bright spot this season.

Back to focal points though: Patty Mills and Rudy Gay are decent players, but they’re not the offensive threats that DeRozan and Aldridge are. Speaking of them, though…

Rule 6: Keep at least one of Mills and Gay in every bench unit

If DeRozan and Aldridge aren’t together, there needs to be a secondary playmaker on the floor. A lineup like Bryn Forbes, DeMar DeRozan, Dante Cunningham, Davis Bertans and Jakob Poeltl might sound like a nice switchable unit, but it would put an enormous burden on DeRozan to create everything, and Pop has always liked having multiple creators on the floor.

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