Los Angeles Lakers: Can Moritz Wagner offense offset his defense?
The Los Angeles Lakers are extremely thin at the center position. Can Moritz Wagner play solid enough defensive to be the answer at the 5?
With NBA teams finally done making moves, the Los Angeles Lakers‘ roster overhaul for the 2018-19 season is over. They made significant improvements in terms of adding depth and veterans, as well as LeBron James, but there’s still a gaping hole at the center position after JaVale McGee and third-year big Ivica Zubac.
Having two bigs in today’s NBA would normally pass with so much emphasis on spacing the floor and having shooters at each position, but McGee has averaged 10.5 minutes per game the last six seasons and Zubac hasn’t shown to be a consistent defender or shooter in his 12.6 minutes per game his first two seasons in the league, which is why rookie Moritz Wagner could be relied on more than his two counterparts.
Wagner surely offers more firepower offensively than McGee and Zubac, with the ability to shoot the ball from deep (39.5 percent on 4.1 3-point attempts per game last season). His quick release and height allows him to get his shot off on pick-and-pops or spotting up, which will translate to the NBA gracefully.
He has plenty of post moves to finish on the block as well. In fact, Wagner probably walks onto the Lakers as the safest bet to get a bucket via post-up outside of LeBron. Outside of the great shooting and post play, Wagner can put the ball on the floor and drive past defenders that close out too hard. The athletes in the NBA are a major step up, so who knows if his rim finishing ability will translate, but that jump shot is more than enough to help his chances of playing and he is strong finishing in transition.
He runs the floor extremely well and has some passing ability, which makes him a perfect fit for this Lakers offense — not to mention Wagner earned a reputation as one of the more charismatic and energetic players in college during his time at the University of Michigan.
But for all of the German big’s offensive talent and high motor, there are serious questions about his ability to defend at the level needed for sustained playing time in the NBA. Wagner has the height at 6’10.5” that excites as a pick-and-pop big, but his wingspan is only 7’0” and he hasn’t shown any natural feel to be a shot-blocker or alter shots at the rim.
Wagner only averaged half a block per game last season at Michigan, which is due to a combination of his lack of elite athleticism and length. The growing number of athletic bigs could cause serious trouble for him if isolated on the block. These physical tools could be offset with great timing and positioning, but Wagner’s college tape shows he has a way to go in those areas as well.
While his rim protection is doubtful to improve, continuing to transform his body shape is the best bet for him to become a solid defender with the game calling for him to defend on the perimeter more often. There are some occasions he was switched onto guards in college, but the Big Ten didn’t boast the toughest lineup of guards this season. Only Kevin Huerter from the University of Maryland (shooter not ball-handler) and Tony Carr (51st overall) from Penn State were drafted among the conference’s guards.
The NBA is in a golden age of playmaking and scoring guards, and big men that don’t protect the rim or have the lateral quickness to hold their own on the perimeter are struggling to carve a significant role in a rotation. Wagner, like most rookies, will have a difficult time on the defensive end of the court, especially within the Lakers’ switch-heavy scheme if they make the postseason.
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Outside of the physical realm, can Wagner anchor a defense vocally? Can he bark out screens, consistently read offenses and tell teammates where to go? Can he know when to attack a ball handler, sag off in the paint, play passing lanes? Modern 5s do all of these things if they are successful, and it’s a tall order for a rookie big man on a team with lofty expectations.
There are some positive signs, however. Wagner improved on his 2017 NBA Draft Combine results in the athletic testing and body fat percentage departments, so landing on a professional team will only further his body development and lead to him getting faster and stronger. He has the work ethic and clearly loves basketball, something he has stated on numerous occasions, which shows he has the drive to grind and overcome these athletic shortcomings.
Wagner played the 4 and 5 in college, but will play the 5 more often for the Lakers, especially considering their rotation at center. Partnering him with McGee would give him a shot-blocking presence in support, yet that would be a mess defensively if teams decided to go small. A lot of this is dependent on what lineups their opposition deploys, so there could be some opportunities for head coach Luke Walton to explore this big lineup.
I don’t know if Moritz Wagner will ever develop into a great NBA defender, but I doubt the Lakers drafted him for his defensive prowess. If he can shoot the ball, play his team-first basketball and bring that contagious energy and effort to the team, it will be tough to keep him off the floor down the line. The Lakers play quick and he fits this mold much better than McGee and Zubac.
I’m not sure if he will carve out a major role right away, or turn into a starter, but with a team projected to not have the strongest shooting roster in the league, Wagner would be a smart player to utilize in spurts to space the floor and open driving lanes for teammates. His defense will have to be spared, but the effort helps a little and the offensive output is strong enough to warrant trotting him out there.