Washington Wizards: Dwight Howard 2018-19 NBA season preview

The 2018-19 Washington Wizards season preview continues with their newest big man, Dwight Howard. Here’s a look at his fit in his first season with the team.

Full disclosure: I did not like the Washington Wizards‘ signing of Dwight Howard this summer, as you can read here. It’s mostly because Howard lost his elite athleticism, can’t play away from the rim, can’t shoot and basically lacks any high value productivity required from a modern-day big man.

Despite my best efforts to point out the impending wreckage, Howard apologists are still quick to defend his “productive” counting stats, starting with the 16.6 points and 12.5 rebounds per game he averaged last season with the Charlotte Hornets — as if being a large human being with bowling balls for shoulders who heavily relies on camping out underneath the net to put up numbers is still an impressive feat in 2018.

All bias aside, I wanted to try and predict Howard’s 2018-19 season through an objective lens, but couldn’t really pinpoint a realistic outcome without some historical context first. It took some digging but the answer finally came in the form of another once dominant, uber-athletic center who was the statistical doppelganger to Dwight Howard last season.

The player? Patrick Ewing in his 14th NBA season for the 1998-99 New York Knicks.

Just take a moment to reflect on that a bit. Last year, Howard, who was also in his 14th season, performed nearly the same as Ewing did at the age of 36. Dwight Howard is only 32.

Don’t believe me? Look for yourself.

During the 1998-99 season, Patrick Ewing averaged 17.3 points, 9.9 rebounds and had a 19.4 Player Efficiency Rating (PER), albeit in only 38 games due to the 1998 NBA lockout. Ewing’s season totals were due in most part to his 28.4 Usage Rate, which estimates the total percentage of plays used on a single player while they are on the floor.

Not too hard to figure out that sapping almost a third of your team’s total plays translates to a fuller stat sheet.

However, Ewing’s heavy usage that season also equated to a -2.2 Offensive Box Plus/Minus (OBPM) and a 0.8 Defensive Box Plus/Minus (DBPM), meaning even though he was relatively efficient with a 19.4 PER, his presence on the court was a net negative to the Knicks.

Wait a minute. If Ewing was so bad that year, why did the Knicks get all the way to the 1999 NBA Finals?

Sorry, but any Knicks fan will immediately remind you that New York’s improbable NBA Finals run that season was mostly attributed to Latrell Sprewell, Allan Houston, Marcus Camby and Larry Johnson playing out of their minds and not Patrick Ewing. In fact, the Knicks usually played better with Ewing off the floor, which eventually led to its own popular theory among NBA inner circles.

Fast forward to Howard’s performance last season with the Hornets.

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Howard averaged 16.6 points, 12.5 rebounds stemming from his 24.2 Usage Rate, which led to a 20.5 PER, similar to Ewing in 1998. Unfortunately, Howard’s counting stats were also a net negative as evidenced by his -2.7 OBPM and 0.8 DBPM, helping Charlotte secure another terrible record as the second-most productive player on their team.

What can we learn here? Relatively high-usage big men who rely heavily on dunks and grabbing easy boards translate better to single Player Efficiency Ratings but do not necessarily improve a team’s chances to win basketball games.

Looking ahead to the 2018-19 season, Dwight Howard will definitely not command the same Usage Rate he had last year, given the ball dominance of John Wall and Bradley Beal as the Wizards’ top offensive scoring options.

In fact, Howard should be regarded as the Wizards’ fifth scoring option at best, placing him behind Otto Porter Jr. and Markieff Morris, in addition to possibly a few other bench players as well.

So what’s the best-case scenario for Washington to win games with Howard on the team? Drastically lower Howard’s Usage Rate and instead, relegate his impact to easy rebounds and put-back dunks. No more, no less. Actually, they should really emphasize the “less.”

The final 2018-19 prediction for Dwight Howard? Based on a lower usage rate, he should still average 10.5 points and 8.5 rebounds per game, making him as efficient as possible while lessening his net negative impact on the team.

Disclaimer: This prediction relies on Howard accepting a minimized role, which has resulted in multiple locker room disputes with his last four teams. I expect Howard to continue this trend.

The lesson? Just like Ian Malcolm’s prophecy in Jurassic Park, Dwight Howard’s awfulness usually “finds a way.”