Washington Wizards draft odds: What are their chances at the #1 pick?

Washington Wizards (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Washington Wizards (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /

The Washington Wizards had a turbulent season, to say the least, despite some bright spots. They started 11-10, only to lose 10 straight games soon after. Washington followed that up by winning six of seven, losing five of six, and then going on a six-game win streak. Wizards fans can only handle so much excitement.

Led by Bradley Beal, a resurgent Kristaps Porzingis, and a breakout year for Kyle Kuzma, they still managed to finish 35-47 and have the eighth-worst record in the NBA. This after selecting Johnny Davis in the top 10 last year, though he had a disappointing rookie season. Unfortunately, they find themselves in the lottery again, but what are the odds that they end up with the #1 pick?

Washington Wizards full draft odds

1st pick-6.7%

2nd pick-7.0%

3rd pick-7.4%

4th pick-7.8%

At 6.4%, the Wizards don’t exactly have a high chance of winning the draft lottery. Then again, the Pelicans received the #1 pick after also finishing with the eighth-worst record in the NBA back in 2019. It’s not impossible that the same could happen for the Wizards, which would allow them to completely reconstruct their team around Victor Wembanyama. Best-case scenario aside, they have a one in three chance of moving up from sixth.

That could also be big. Depending on how the draft shakes out, they could end up with a top prospect, even with the fourth pick. For instance, if Houston, San Antonio, and Detroit land the top three selections, Wembanyama, Amen Thompson, and Brandon Miller could be taken one-three. That would leave Scoot Henderson, a player who might’ve been the number one pick in another draft, at four. That’s entirely possible. Now, let’s take a look at the worst-case scenario next.

8th pick-32.9%

9th pick-31.1%

10th pick-6.6%

11th pick-0.4%

12th pick: >0.0

Barring some awful luck, Washington probably won’t actually pick 11th or 12th. There is about a one in three chance they stay at eight and a one in three chance they move down to nine. Compared to teams ahead of them, there is much less volatility in Washington’s draft position, and their realistic worst-case scenario is that they drop a spot if they are unlucky.

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Ultimately, the Wizards could use some magic to land the top pick. Fortunately, even if they don’t, they still have a decent chance to move up and take an impact player.