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Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal 2018-19 NBA season preview

By Matt H

TORONTO, ON - APRIL 14: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards looks on against the Toronto Raptors in Game One of the first round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre on April 14, 2018 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Bradley Beal
TORONTO, ON - APRIL 14: Bradley Beal #3 of the Washington Wizards looks on against the Toronto Raptors in Game One of the first round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs at Air Canada Centre on April 14, 2018 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Bradley Beal /
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The next 2018-19 NBA season preview is for Bradley Beal, an All-Star shooting guard primed to elevate his game to the next level for the Washington Wizards.

Over the last two seasons, Bradley Beal has averaged 22.9 points per game off an impressive 54.7 effective field goal percentage, due in most part to his career 39.3 percent shooting from 3-point range on 6.9 attempts per game.

However, the most significant improvement for Beal also came during the last two years in the form of 77 and 82.

What do those two numbers represent? The total amount of games Beal played, which is a significant increase from the 62-game average during his first four injury-riddled seasons.

Why the sudden increase in games played? Well, this is just a hunch, but it may be in part because the “Big Panda” realized you can’t eat your weight in junk food and finally decided to get in shape, helping reduce his injuries caused by poor conditioning and fatigue.

For those not familiar, the first few years of Bradley Beal’s career are yet another example of a persistent issue that continues to haunt younger players in the NBA. Spoiler alert! If you want to be great, stop eating garbage and get in the gym.

So, if you combine Beal’s offensive efficiency with his discovery of a StairMaster, what can fans expect from him as enters the prime of his career? Well, the truth is, Beal’s untapped potential lies in his total volume of 3-point attempts.

Since he entered the league, Bradley Beal has increased his 3-point attempts to roughly 6.9 per game over the last two seasons. In addition, he also reduced the assist rate on those attempts, meaning he has the ability to make 3-pointers off his own shot.

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Being able to consistently drain the ball from 3 off your own shot at a high volume kind of reminds me of another breakout shooting guard in Houston who started realizing his full offensive potential back in 2012-13.

Yup, I’m saying it. Bradley Beal has the ability to become a James Harden-caliber player in the NBA. Don’t believe me? Let’s take a closer look.

Starting in 2012-13, James Harden attempted the same number of 3-point shots as Beal does today, albeit with a lower percentage rate and only half of those shots coming off an assist. Essentially, Harden starting shooting more 3s off the dribble.

As the years went on, Harden increased his 3-point attempts to 10.0 a game while further decreasing the percent of those attempts coming off an assist. The result? Harden became one of the most efficient players in the league, making an All-NBA team five times, winning the 2017-18 MVP award and elevating the Houston Rockets into a perennial NBA championship contender.

Back to Bradley Beal.

If Beal is able to increase his 3-point attempts from 6.9 to around 10.0 per game, continue decreasing his shots off an assist, just like Harden, all while maintaining his solid 3-point percentage, then he may finally realize his All-NBA potential.

However, that prediction comes with a handful of very large “IF” caveats.

Bradley Beal can have an All-NBA caliber season IF…

  • John Wall accepts a reduced scoring role in the Washington Wizards‘ offense, due in most part to his inability to shoot and waning athleticism, and transitions his attempts to Bradley Beal.
  • Dwight Howard doesn’t destroy another locker room and instead focuses on rebounding and rim protection, finally morphing himself into the player the Wizards are now paying him to be.
  • Head coach Scott Brooks actually designs an offensive scheme that appeases the locker room full of alpha dogs while emphasizing opportunities for Bradley Beal as the team’s primary scorer.

Basically, Bradley Beal’s All-NBA caliber potential hinges on the need for John Wall to stop being John Wall, Dwight Howard to stop being Dwight Howard and Scott Brooks to stop being Scott Brooks.

Hmm. On second thought, maybe I should temper down the All-NBA talk for now.

The final 2018-19 prediction for Bradley Beal? Averages of 22.5 points and a 38.5 percent conversion rate from 3 point range on 7.0 attempts per game, resulting in a 54.5 effective field goal percentage.

Next. 2018 NBA free agency tracker - Grades for every deal so far. dark

I have faith in Bradley Beal, just not the rest of the Washington Wizards.

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