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Top statistician Nate Silver’s algorithm loves Ben Simmons and the Philadelphia 76ers

By Larry Mendte

PHILADELPHIA, PA - MAY 5: Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers flexes in reaction to a dunk by Joel Embiid against the Boston Celtics during Game Three of the Eastern Conference Second Round of the 2018 NBA Playoff at Wells Fargo Center on May 5, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Ben Simmons
PHILADELPHIA, PA - MAY 5: Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers flexes in reaction to a dunk by Joel Embiid against the Boston Celtics during Game Three of the Eastern Conference Second Round of the 2018 NBA Playoff at Wells Fargo Center on May 5, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Ben Simmons /
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The top sports statistician in the country shows why the Philadelphia 76ers have the best starting lineup in the East and why Ben Simmons will dominate the NBA for seven years.

Philadelphia 76ers point guard Ben Simmons will be the most dominant player in the league over the next seven years, according to America’s preeminent statistician, Nate Silver.

Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight, a site that uses statistics to make predictions about politics, crime and sports. Silver rose to prominence when he correctly predicted 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election.

Silver and his team came up with an algorithm to rate NBA players that he named CARMELO. It’s a complicated system, but at its core it compares current players to past ones who had similar statistics at the same position at about the same age. 

Silver recently posted an article titled Our NBA Player Predictions Are Ready For 2018-19. Ben Simmons will love the article. Joel Embiid, who considers himself and MVP candidate next season, won’t like it as much.

The final statistic that measures a player’s worth is Wins Above Replacement (WAR). The site provides WAR numbers for next season and a long-term projection for the next seven years (through the 2024-25 season). Silver calls the long-term WAR number “the 7-year upside.”

Silver predicts that Ben Simmons will dominate the league over the next seven years. Simmons’ seven-year upside is 65.5 WAR. No other player made it above a 60. Giannis Antetokounmpo came closest with 57.5. The remaining top five are James Harden (53.8), Russell Westbrook (52.7) and Nikola Jokic (49.7).

So where is Joel Embiid? The 76ers center comes in 20th on the list with a WAR of 28.9. That seems low for a player who is considered an MVP candidate next season. The 76ers are statistically a mediocre team when Embiid is not on the court. You would think his Wins Above Replacement number would be through the roof of the Wells Fargo Center.

Silver explains the algorithm takes into account games and minutes played. The statistician admits that Embiid’s seven-year upside would be much higher if he had been injury-free the past two seasons.

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For the 2017-18 season, Silver provides the WAR number, but ranks the players purely on a plus/minus algorithm. Russell Westbrook is predicted to be the best in the NBA next season with a 7.3. Ben Simmons is 10th with a 4.8. Embiid is 17th with a 4.1.

Interestingly enough, the much-maligned Sixers forward Robert Covington is 24th on the list at 2.8, just ahead of Paul George, Kemba Walker and Kyrie Irving. Sixers fans love to hate Covington, but he is respected by the league for his defense. He was voted onto the 2017-18 NBA All-Defensive team.  

Although the Toronto Raptors and the Boston Celtics are favored in the East, according to Odds Shark, and the argument is that both teams have starting lineups superior to the 76ers, Silver’s algorithm disagrees.

Boston’s starting five of Kyrie Irving (2.6), Jayson Tatum (2.9), Al Horford (2.4), Gordon Hayward (1.7) and Jaylen Brown (0.6) have a combined plus/minus of 10.1.

Toronto’s lineup of Kawhi Leonard (5.6), Kyle Lowry (4.1), Serge Ibaka (-0.3), Jonas Valanciunas (0.7) and Danny Green (0.0) have a combined 10.3.

The Sixers’ lineup of Ben Simmons (4.8), J.J. Redick (1.0), Robert Covington (2.8), Dario Saric (0.4) and Joel Embiid (4.1) have a combined 13.1.

It should be pointed out that this algorithm not only correctly predicted the NBA playoff teams last year, but the NBA Finals matchup as well.

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Even though the oddsmakers are underestimating the Philadelphia 76ers this season, Nate Silver and his algorithm are not.