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The oddsmakers are underestimating the Philadelphia 76ers

By Larry Mendte

PHILADELPHIA, PA - MAY 7: Dario Saric #9, Joel Embiid #21, and Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers look on in the fourth quarter against the Boston Celtics during Game Four of the Eastern Conference Second Round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs at Wells Fargo Center on May 7, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The 76ers defeated the Celtics 103-92. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - MAY 7: Dario Saric #9, Joel Embiid #21, and Ben Simmons #25 of the Philadelphia 76ers look on in the fourth quarter against the Boston Celtics during Game Four of the Eastern Conference Second Round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs at Wells Fargo Center on May 7, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The 76ers defeated the Celtics 103-92. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /
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Are the oddsmakers and NBA prognosticators forgetting the Philadelphia 76ers’ incredible second half run last season?

According to Odds Shark, the oddsmakers have the Philadelphia 76ers at 20-to-1 odds to win the NBA Finals in the upcoming season.

Only two teams in the Eastern Conference have better odds: The Boston Celtics at 6-to-1 odds, and the Toronto Raptors at 12-to-1.

As impressive as the expectations are for the 76ers, considering that the team only won 10 games in the 2015-16 season, is it possible the Sixers are being underestimated?

It is easy to understand the oddsmakers’ logic in choosing Boston and Toronto over Philadelphia. The Celtics easily beat the Sixers in the second round of the 2018 NBA playoffs without their two best players. Injuries kept guard Kyrie Irving and forward Gordon Hayward on the bench throughout the playoffs. Their absence led to emergence of Jason Tatum and Jaylen Brown as potential NBA All-Stars.

The Celtics’ starting lineup and bench for 2018-19 is scary good, but the NBA is about superstars, and as good as Irving, Hayward and Tatum are, they are not in the same league as the ceilings of the 76ers’ two budding superstars, Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid.

The Toronto Raptors have two great players in Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry. Leonard is already a superstar and one of the five best players in the league. Two years ago, his last injury-free season, he finished third in the MVP voting behind Russell Westbrook and James Harden. But for the next decade, Simmons and Embiid will compete for the league MVP every year.

Potential is a difficult thing to put odds on. Before the beginning of last season, everyone knew the Sixers would be great someday, but probably not right away.

The predictions for the 76ers going into last season were tempered by the fact the team was so young and had never played together. The prognosticators talked of rookie mistakes and growing pains in conservatively predicting Philly would win as many games as it lost and maybe make the playoffs.

In the first three months of the 2017-18 season, the talking heads seemed spot-on in their predictions of a mediocre season for the 76ers. After November, December and January, the 76ers were a .500 team at 24-24.

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Then something happened. The team jelled and won eight of 11 games in February. March was even better, with the Sixers taking 13 of 16. April was nothing but wins, as they won seven of seven games.

The 76ers entered the 2018 NBA Playoffs with 16 straight wins. It is true that they had an easy schedule and several of the teams they played were tanking for a better spot in the NBA Draft. But those16 games also included wins against the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Milwaukee Bucks, team that were jockeying for playoff positioning.

If you look at the 2017-18 season as a whole, the 76ers made a huge leap forward to become one of the best teams in the NBA. If you break the season up into halves, and just look at the 2018 76ers, they were the best team in the Eastern Conference.

Only the Houston Rockets (40-8) had a better record in the 2018 half of the season than the 76ers (35-11).  And if you just look at the last three months of the season, the two teams are comparable (Houston at 29-4, Philadelphia at 28-6).

The oddsmakers and talking heads were wrong about the 76ers before last season and they are wrong again this season.

It is reasonable to assume that the young Sixers were victims of inexperience in their first playoff run in “The Process” era. This season, Embiid, Simmons and the under-rated Dario Saric will all have a year of playoff experience under their belt.

If Markelle Fultz shakes off his rookie season and starts playing like a No. 1 overall pick, then watch out. The odds will quickly change and the 76ers will dominate the East for years to come.

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The dominance should start this season.