2018 NBA Draft: Top 60 big board, Part 2

Tier 5

Tier 5 is where we start to bat below the Mendoza line of my confidence rating. The fifth tier is mostly made up of players with highly valuable attributes. Unfortunately, they are missing multiple attributes in order for me to feel strongly confident that they will have long-term NBA value. Most likely, I will be eating my words on 1-3 of these seven prospects.

26. Mitchell Robinson, C — USA 

Mitchell Robinson had a very awkward season for an NBA prospect. He just kind of went AWOL, electing to leave Western Kentucky. Then was deemed ineligible to play in the G League since he was never deemed ineligible by the NCAA.

There is certainly no shortage of natural talent in Robinson’s game. He has physical and athletic gifts that simply cannot be taught that some prospects in the lottery do not even have. Robinson projects at a rim-runner at this point in his career, but he has been working on his perimeter game throughout the pre-draft process.

Defensively, Robinson was an elite rim protector in high school. He holds the Nike EYBL record for blocks per game, beating out several of the big men in this class in that category. Robinson at his best could be one of the best prospects in his class. Unfortunately, there are character concerns with him and choosing to skip all interviews as a no-show at NBA Draft Combine was not a good look either.

27. Kevin Knox, PF — Kentucky 

Kevin Knox was supposed to be the man this year for Big Blue Nation. While he certainly did not play poorly, Knox did not live up to the lofty expectations that come with being the top-rated Kentucky freshman.

Knox has to be a 4 in the NBA. While some project him as a wing, he does not have the speed or handle to thrive there. Knox does have the prototypical size for a 4, standing at 6’9″. One of the youngest players in the draft, Knox has plenty of time to develop into a solid all-around player as well.

The defensive side of the ball is where he really struggles. He does not have the foot speed laterally to stay with wings and will likely be limited to guarding one position. Off the ball, Knox appears to be lost way too often and unable to recognize correct rotations and where he needs to be on the floor.

Knox will be a likely lottery pick and does have some upside, but I do not see him improving significantly in any area. His appeal to me as a prospect is his size and shooting combination. Unfortunately, I don’t think he will have enough offensive appeal to be a negative on the defensive side of the ball.

28. Rawle Alkins, SG — Arizona 

Rawle Alkins had an injury-riddled season this year at Arizona. He likely hurt his draft positioning, but that is mainly because of how deep this draft class is.

Alkins is a great playmaker for an off-guard. He is able to use his strength to get into the lane, and once he does can make routine reads to find that open man, or finish at the rim with his bruising physicality. His jump shot projects well off the catch, but his robotic form makes it hard to project off movement or off the bounce. I’d like to see him make some slight adjustments so that transition into a smoother shot would be much easier.

Alkins shines on the ball defensively. He moves his feet well enough on the perimeter to stay with smaller, quick guards. He also brings his tenacity and intensity on the defensive side of the ball, being a very aggressive defender that will knock you off of your position. Alkins is the type of prospect you want to bring into your franchise because of how competitive he is. Hopefully that competitive edge will lead to constant jump shot work. I would also like to see Alkins recognize the defense just a tiny bit faster, so he can add value as a secondary handler.

29. Elie Okobo, PG — France 

Elie Okobo enjoyed a strong offensive season this year in LNB Pro A play with Pau Orthez. Okobo is a crafty left-handed point guard that should sneak his way into the first round.

Okobo is a score-first point guard on offense. He has a fair amount of shake in his dribble moves, and is easily the second-best pull-up jump shooting point guard. He was extremely efficient playing out of the pick-and-roll too. Okobo seems to struggle a bit with physical perimeter defenders and I would like to see him bulk up more, along with playing with more aggression. He is also not the level of playmaker I usually like out of a lead guard, and can be turnover-prone.

Okobo is a pretty quick guard and that translates well onto the perimeter. Being measured at 6’2″ with a 6’8″ wingspan is also pretty good size to defend the point guard position. I do not anticipate Okobo to really stand out defensively, but he should be average. I’d like to see him add more value as a playmaker and start playing with more aggression on both sides of the ball.

30. Landry Shamet, SG — Wichita State 

After going back over his film following a horrible 5-on-5 performance at the NBA Draft Combine, Landry Shamet has sort of scared me off from previous top-25 ranking.

Shamet may be one of the best overall shooters in this class. He shoots well in all three facets, and despite his line drive arc on his shot, it should translate well. He has a high IQ and can make all of the simple reads you want your off-guard to make when he attacks a close-out. Where I have grown lower on Shamet is his combo guard equity. I do not think Shamet will be able to handle the ball and do the bulk of creation for his team, even if it for just five minutes at a time.

Defensively, Shamet played in a great system at Wichita State. It may have even inflated some of his skill defending on the ball. I still think Shamet will be a wonderful team defender with solid overall instincts. At Shamet’s size, he will have the overall height to guard wings, but may not have the strength. Overall I still like Shamet as a prospect pending his fit. If he gets paired with two high-usage handlers, Shamet should be able to find success as a knockdown shooter.

31. Donte DiVincenzo, SG — Villanova 

After a strong NCAA Tournament run, DiVincenzo proved he was a very real NBA prospect, following it up with a fantastic combine performance. This will likely lead to a mid-first round selection for the “Michael Jordan of Delaware.”

DiVincenzo is absolutely fearless offensively. He is not afraid of any matchup in front of him and is not afraid to go right at any matchup he draws. He’s a bouncy undersized wing that should thrive in the transition game. DiVincenzo’s a quality shooter, but can be a little bit too streaky from time to time. He has the playmaking ability you want out of a secondary creator as well.

Defensively, DiVincenzo may struggle, standing at only 6’4″. He may be limited to guarding just lead ball handlers. The knock on DiVincenzo on the defensive side of the ball was guarding quicker players. Overall, just typing this up right now, I am talking myself into DiVincenzo and will likely be eating my words for ranking him so low.

32. Bruce Brown, SG — Miami 

After being regarded as a possible lottery pick last season, Bruce Brown’s draft stock has taken a tremendous hit. While he still showcases many NBA attributes, there is one key factor that is really holding him back.

When Brown did play this season for Miami, he was thrust into a primary creating role. This Miami team’s mindset was “shoot,” and passing or defense were always afterthoughts. So considering the team system, I thought Brown did as good of a job as he could, showing off some secondary creation equity. Brown is a phenomenal athlete with a great first step and has no problem attacking the rim. However, Brown will not be able to attack the rim if teams do not even have to guard his jump shot.

Next: 2018 NBA Mock Draft - Final edition

Brown is one of the better on-ball defenders in his class. He has all the tools to guard three positions and is an extremely quick-twitch athlete when defending, as he opens hips well and handles change of direction better than almost anyone. Off the ball, Brown definitely has his lapses, but he should still be a very good overall defender. He has all the tools in a perimeter player, but the shot is just getting too hard to predict. I used to be fully behind Brown, but I have lost confidence in his jump shot.