2018 NBA Draft: Final top 60 big board, Part 1

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Tier 4

Tier 4 is where I start to lose just a tiny bit of confidence on how well these players will translate to long-term NBA roles. Some I am fairly confident in, while others scare me a tiny bit. Many of these prospects stand out athletically or are collegiate veterans that will likely have little room for development.

Tier 4 is made up of 11 prospects. Many have an easily projectable archetype, but are just lacking that one skill I am confident in to push them over the edge, or they just don’t have a very high ceiling.

15. Dzanan Musa, SF/PF — Bosnia

While many eyes were focused on Luka Doncic’s international dominance this season, Bosnian forward Dzanan Musa quietly had an impressive season of his own.

Musa stands at 6’9″, even though it is more like 6’7″ with his hunched-over posture. He plays for Cedevita of the Adriatic League, which in my opinion is the third-best basketball league in the world. In Adriatic League play, Musa was an efficient volume scorer off the bench.

He has a perimeter-oriented game, with a solid handle and a deadly left-handed hesitation move that he has good burst out of and helps him get to the rim. Musa has a beautiful motion and quick release on his jump shot. He shoots it well both off the dribble and off the catch. I would like to see Musa improve his decision-making when he attacks the lane and add some more counter moves to the left-handed hesitation that he uses religiously.

Musa is a pretty poor on-ball defender. He is not a quick reactor when opponents take him off the dribble. Part of this stems from his hunched-over posture. Off the ball, Musa is engaged frequently. He does have mental lapses, but for the most part he is usually just a tad bit over-aggressive when defending off the ball. Musa’s back has already been checked out and cleared by doctors.

I like his offensive game so much that I am going to turn the other cheek with his defensive value. None of that matters if Musa does not add some much needed muscle, however. Look for him to improve his body and make his offensive impact felt in year 2 or 3.

16. Jalen Brunson, PG — Villanova

There’s not really any way to describe Jalen Brunson’s college career other than a winner. Brunson finished his junior season at Villanova winning his second national title and being the unquestioned leader on the court at point guard.

While Brunson does not have elite physical or athletic tools, he just knows how to play the game. I know that sounds like an easy cop-out to describing his game, but if any player ever fit that bill, it’d be Brunson. He was easily one of the more efficient shooters throughout the entire college season this year, shooting well from 3-point range off the dribble and off the catch. Brunson is your typical floor general when playmaking for others, changing speeds well to get into the lane. Though he doesn’t make any crazy reads, he always makes great decisions with the ball.

Much like any other Villanova prospect, Brunson is a very polished defender both on and off the ball. He uses his strong frame to get into his matchup and always seems to be in the right spot when defending off the ball. Look for Brunson to make an immediate impact and contribute to winning basketball wherever he ends up. While Brunson will be good defensively, his real appeal comes from his overall maturity level offensively, where he will take care of the basketball and knock down shots for many years to come.

17. Robert Williams, C — Texas A&M

Robert Williams has had his share of problems at Texas A&M, both on and off the court, but the overall talent level and easily projectable NBA role makes him a very appealing prospect.

Williams suffered from playing in the absolute worst offensive system for his skill-set, playing the 4-spot next to Tyler Davis throughout his entire year at Texas A&M. Contrary to many of the big men coming into the draft this year, Williams realistically will never be a jump shooter and showed no signs pointing toward improvement in college. When engaged, Williams’ athletic ability will stand out on offense running the floor and finishing at the rim.

Williams’ real appeal comes defensively as a very bouncy rim protector. I thought Williams did a better job as the season went on of just contesting shots at the rim and not always chasing block opportunities. He does move extremely well for a big though, and his explosive leaping ability does make him the best rim protector in the draft outside of Mohamed Bamba and Jaren Jackson Jr.

Williams will have to continuously stay engaged on both sides of the ball, and hs lack of motor scares me. However, his rim-running/protecting archetype seems easily translatable. In a setting that is more tailored to his fit, hopefully Williams will keep his motor running constantly at the next level.

18. Keita Bates-Diop, PF — Ohio State

Keita Bates-Diop has always had the talent to be a very good player. He finally put all that talent together for a tremendous breakout season at Ohio State this year.

Bates-Diop should project as a 4-man all the way in the NBA with little positional versatility. He stands at 6’8″ with an incredible 7’3″ wingpsan and Bates-Diop uses every inch of that wingspan on his jump shot. He takes advantage of those incredibly long arms with a high release that is almost impossible to block. Bates-Diop projects as a tough shot-maker who will thrive in isolation situations in the high post. He shot a pretty good percentage from 3-point range this year at Ohio State, but was a little bit streaky from game to game. I think that he will eventually become a quality shooter from the 3-point line and really add value spacing the floor as well as in pick-and-pop situations.

On the other side of the ball, Bates-Diop is a lot better defending on the perimeter than he gets credit for. He moves his feet well and should be able to stay with some roleplaying wings on the perimeter. He needs to add some more muscle before he can consistently guard the average 4 in the NBA though. I really like Bates-Diop as a prospect, but he needs to improve his handle, get stronger and shoot the ball consistently from deep. He will certainly hold value in the league once he improves these attributes, but it will not be immediate value.

19. De’Anthony Melton, PG/SG — USC

De’Anthony Melton is a tough prospect to evaluate, mainly because he did not play at all this season due to the FBI probe. This left us unable to see how he developed from his freshman season.

Melton has some serious questions on the offensive side of the ball, but most of them project well for future development. He did not shoot the ball well from deep at USC, but his form looks pretty projectable (at least off of the catch) to become an average shooter for a guard in the worst-case scenario. He finishes well at the rim with either hand and has great passing instincts. Unfortunately, he doesn;t have the tightest handle for a guard and it will be hard for him to find a lot of value in those traits until his handle and jump shot develop.

Melton’s real equity is on the defensive end, where he is probably the best overall defender as a guard both on and off the ball without even playing a game this season. His defensive instincts playing off the ball are insane in every way possible. Melton’s strong frame and 6’8.5″ wingspan make him a perfect point guard stopper on the ball and he should be able to have success on smaller wings as well. If Melton’s jump shot and handle develop, he could be a uniquely valuable secondary creator and 3-and-D guard.

20. Zhaire Smith, SG — Texas Tech

The story of Zhaire Smith going from an unheard of recruit and late signee to one-and-done NBA player is awesome. While many people continue to think more and more highly of Zhaire Smith, I have trended off the bandwagon.

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Smith is an extremely explosive player and the best athlete in this entire draft class. He applies his athleticism on the offensive end of the floor as a rebounder, along with using his high IQ to get easy opportunities at the rim off cuts. He shot a great percentage at Texas Tech from 3-point range, but it was on an extremely small sample size and I’m not all the way in on his behind-the-head shooting motion.

Defensively, Smith stands out as a perennial lead guard stopper for many years to come, which gives him unique defensive value since there are not many guards that have taken on that challenge in recent years. Smith is probably the best on-ball defending guard in this class.

Unfortunately, his offensive skill-set is extremely raw and would need a very rapid development rate every year to really be worthy of a lottery selection. If Zhaire continues to develop like he did at Texas Tech, he could be an All-Star caliber player, but it’s more than likely he is a roleplaying defensive stopper that eventually figures out his jump shot off the catch.

21. Jacob Evans, SG — Cincinnati

Jacob Evans thrived at Cincinnati this season in an almost perfect system fit. He was able to showcase his on- and off-ball defense while being able to improve on his creation abilities in his junior season.

Evans is your prototypical high-IQ, off-ball offensive player. He does everything that is asked of him and rarely tries to force the issue. He knocks down open 3-point shots and can attack close-outs, where he has the strength to finish at the rim. Like previously mentioned, Evans was able to work on his creation abilities and needs some more work in order to add a little more offensive value. His improvement as a creator in a larger role this season was a great sign for him though.

Evans is extremely quick and moves well laterally on the defensive side of the ball. Where his true value comes in as a prospect is that he’s one of the better team defenders at the wing position. He measured out well at the combine at 6’5″ with a 6’9″ wingspan, and should be able to have versatility guarding three positions in the NBA. Evans is ready to make an immediate impact on the NBA game, even if it’s just for spot minutes off of the bench.

22. Melvin Frazier, SG/SF — Tulane

After an impressive combine performance, I have grown much fonder of Melvin Frazier. It was an eye-opener to go back through his film and see such an amazing athlete at the wing position. He should thrive in the open court and transition game. It’d also help having a guard that can take a load off of him offensively once he gets into the NBA.

Frazier made tremendous strides as a shooter this season. He gets tremendous lift on his jumpshot and has a lightning quick release off the catch. He also possesses a lightning quick first step and can get all the way to the rim in the blink of an eye. Even though Frazier does not have a physical imposing body, his leaping ability and toughness help him finish at the rim with solid body control.

Frazier’s on-ball defense is tremendous. He has lighting quick reactions and the footwork of an NFL wide receiver. Frazier seemed to improve his off-ball defense throughout the season as he was pretty aware of his surroundings, even though that may have not always translated to standout rotations. I am a big fan of Melvin Frazier as the ultimate 3-and-D player. Although his impact may not be immediate, he has elite size, length and athletic ability. I would not be the least bit surprised if Frazier ends up being one of the more successful players in this tier.

23. Khyri Thomas, SG — Creighton

Thomas had an incredible season this year at Creighton. He is a very limited prospect, but knows how to stick to his strengths.

At 6’3″, Thomas does not have ideal size for a wing despite having a strong frame and long arms. He cannot fit into a combo guard role either, since he only has the handling ability to be a straight line driver at best. Thomas is a sniper though, shooting spot-up 3s. He can knock it down contested or unguarded and gets good lift on his jump shot as well.

On defense, Thomas’ length should give him the ability to cover both wings and lead guards. He is a strong, intense, extremely physical, point-of-attack, on-ball defender. If Thomas was not such a standout defender, he would not even be ranked in the top 40. However, his ability as an on-ball defender combined with his shooting ability makes him a very fit-dependent prospect. Hopefully Thomas can add some more value to his offensive game by learning to shoot off of movement.

24. Troy Brown Jr., SF — Oregon

Troy Brown is a much different wing prospect than everyone else in his tier. He’s not a 3-and-D player, a seasoned college prospect or an underrated recruit. Troy Brown Jr. is your typical one-and-done that was a McDonald’s All-American last season, playing in a toxic team system at Oregon.

Brown is a playmaking wing that will look to mold himself into a secondary creator archetype with quality passing vision. Brown is not an elite athlete, but can still get into the lane and create for others, especially in the ball screen game. He’s also a tremendous rebounder at 6’6″ and holds a significant amount of grab-and-go ability. Brown has a strong frame, which helps him finish at the rim as well. The biggest question mark in Brown’s game is his jump shot. Since he does not have elite speed or burst, will he still be able to make plays in the lane without a jumper?

Brown’s defense is fine. I do not really think he stands out on the defensive side on or off the ball. His overall size and length should allow him to guard both wing positions and some small-ball 4’s. I would like to see him make more of an impact as an off-ball defender with the high IQ he possesses. Unfortunately, this is where it starts to get a little dicey. Brown has to shoot the ball and shoot it at a respectable rate. Brown’s definitely more of a project than the other wings, but could be worth the risk.

25. Josh Okogie, SG — Georgia Tech

While it took me awhile to finally give into ranking Okogie in the first round, I finally did it! Okogie is a personal favorite of many other draft writers, and it is easy to see his appeal as a prospect. However, I would be lying if I said I was not skeptical.

Okogie is slightly undersized for the wing position at 6’4.5″, but has a very strong frame and a seven-foot wingspan. Okogie uses every single ounce of that frame when driving to the hoop, where he can finish through contact well. He posted great shooting numbers through his two years at Georgia Tech as well.

For some reason I am still skeptical about his jump shot, even though I probably should not be. Okogie really has no creation value in my opinion, contrary to others’. He doesn’t have a very strong handle and he doesn’t make very great decisions when he is put in a playmaking role either.

Defensively, Okogie really stands out on the ball with his size, length and exceptional lateral movement. He should have multi-positional versatility and much like Melvin Frazier, has tremendous footwork. Okogie is a younger sophomore, but I still do not trust the jump shot or decision-making enough for him to be a long-term lock in the NBA. If he improves his decision-making and the jumper is real, he should stick.

2018 NBA Draft: Top 60 big board, Part 2

By Connor Harr | Jun 20, 2018

Tier 4