Indiana Pacers: Best- and worst-case opponent for the first round

Philadelphia 76ers

At first glance, they seem like the preferred opponent for several reasons. There’s the classic narrative that young teams don’t succeed right away in the postseason, and the Sixers’ two best players are a combined 45 years old with zero playoff games between them.

The bigger problem is that one half of that combo might not be available for the start of the series, if at all.

The latest word on Joel Embiid is that he’s been cleared to begin non-contact cardio, which means he can be like me at the gym on a lazy Sunday morning. He could return in anywhere from 1-3 weeks, which means he could miss all of the Philly’s first round series or none of it. So much for clarity.

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Here’s the thing about the Sixers: The way they’re playing right now, it may not even matter if the big man suits up. They’ve won 13 games in a row, including the last five without Embiid. On Friday night, they withstood a charge from Playoff LeBron (he was one thousand percent trying to win that game) to beat Cleveland. Over the last two months, they have the second-best record in the NBA with the second-best net rating, trailing only the Houston Rockets for both.

Most importantly, it seems they have figured out — at least a little bit — how to succeed without Embiid. Over this 24-5 stretch, they are outscoring opponents by 4.4 points per 100 possessions without their big man. That doesn’t sound great, but compared with the -5.7 net rating they had sans Embiid over the first 50 games, it’s huge.

A big part of that is Simmons, who is figuring out more and more each night how to dominate a game without ever taking a shot outside of 15 feet. Just like the rest of the league, the Pacers have no one to match up with him. Victor Oladipo could give it a go, but that would risk wearing him out when they need every bit of his playmaking/driving/shotmaking on offense. It’s a tall ask.

Ultimately, beating Philly may require Indiana to play outside its comfort zone. The Sixers turn it over more than any team in the league. The Pacers, on the other hand, play at the seventh-slowest pace in the league, and are dead last since Dec. 1. If they want to beat this seemingly indestructible machine, they’ll need to get their running shoes on.