Why the Indiana Pacers should be trying to trade for Kawhi Leonard

Recent news out of San Antonio indicates Kawhi Leonard may be on the outs. The Indiana Pacers should take full advantage of the opportunity.

I feel like this column is an ad for a new prescription drug, because before we even get to the point, we have to go through some fine print first:

Kawhi Leonard is not on the trading block, may never be on the trading block, and has not been linked to the Indiana Pacers or any other NBA team besides the San Antonio Spurs, either by the team itself or anyone inside of his camp. Consuming undercooked meat while reading this column may be bad for your health.

Okay, now that that’s out of the way…let’s have some fun!

Why it’s not that crazy

Let’s put aside for a moment the report that Kawhi Leonard’s Spurs teammates recently did their best impression of the gang from West Beverly Hills High School in pleading with their erstwhile star to reconsider his life choices.

Instead, let’s focus on the Pacers, a notoriously conservative organization that is less likely to make a splashy, all-in type trade than perhaps any team in the NBA. Throw in the fact that they’ve felt as good about themselves as any franchise that exists outside of Houston, Canada or the Bay Area this season, and the odds on them dismantling the apple cart this summer in an attempt to build a snazzy race car are unlikely, to say the least.

That doesn’t mean it doesn’t make all kinds of sense. As wonderful as their feel-good story is, the Pacers’ realistic avenues for improving to contender status are highly limited moving forward.

Sometimes, you have to roll the dice.

Reaching new heights

Thanks to their better-than-expected season, Indiana’s draft pick is going to be in the late teens at best. While they do as good a job as any team in the NBA at unearthing talent later than it should be picked (see George, Paul and Leonard himself back in 2011), counting on this as a team-building strategy isn’t necessarily prudent.

Cap-wise, they look good going forward, but that space is going to dry up fast with Myles Turner eligible to sign an extension less than 100 days from now. They’ve also never exactly been a destination for free agents, so the smart money says they’ll attempt to bring back some of the veterans on their roster (Thaddeus Young and Darren Collison, to name two) rather than letting them walk for nothing.

All of this is a recipe to remain good in the near future — maybe even very good if they hit some more moves on the fringes. But if they have their sights set higher, the status quo won’t cut it.

A unique situation

Despite a season straight out of a fairy tale, the Pacers are actually in a bit of a tricky spot moving forward. Two of their best three assets play the same position.

Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis are both pretty clearly centers in the modern NBA. Nate McMillan has paid lip service to playing the duo together more, but hasn’t put his money where his mouth is, perhaps for good reason. In the 241 minutes they’ve been on the floor together, lineups featuring the Turner and Sabonis pairing are a net negative, albeit barely.

Obviously this is a good problem to have at the moment, especially for a team whose future outlook seemed hopeless just six months ago. That being said, it doesn’t seem tenable to build around those two as part of your core moving forward. Trading one of them would make perfect sense…in the right deal.

Enter the Spurs.

Would San Antonio budge?

For the Spurs to move Kawhi Leonard, they’d have to be convinced of several things, all of which are connected.

First, that the injury is a long-term issue (presumably they wouldn’t try and trade him if he couldn’t pass a physical, but it doesn’t mean they wouldn’t still have concerns about his health moving forward). Second, they’d have to doubt their own ability to sign him long-term, or that he’s worth the max (although it’s tough to imagine them being worried about the latter if he’s healthy). Finally, they’d have to feel they’re getting back fair value.

Let’s start with the last point. Turner or Sabonis would obviously be the starting point. Which one the Spurs would want is anyone’s guess. The perception exists that Turner is the better of the two, but Sabonis has been every bit as good this season.

Next, San Antonio would demand the Pacers’ draft pick this year, and at least one future first, probably lightly protected. If this year’s selection fell too low, it might be a deal-breaker. Assuming it lands around 20, the deal would look something like this:

In total, that’s still not enough to get a deal done if you assume the team you’re trading Kawhi to is going to get to keep him for the foreseeable future, and not just for one season. This is where things get interesting.

Bear market

If Leonard refuses to give any assurances to the team trading for him and lets it be known that he’s going to take full advantage of his first opportunity to test the waters of free agency, the level of deals on the table will decrease drastically.

Still, one would figure that some desperate team out there would beat Indiana’s offer of Turner or Sabonis plus two first round picks. This is Kawhi-freaking-Leonard, after all.

A chance worth taking

These are all valid questions with uncertain answers. The same goes for whether the Spurs would even put Leonard on the trading block to begin with.

If they did, would they want to take on another big when they already have LaMarcus Aldridge manning the middle? LMA’s shooting would probably provide enough floor-spacing to make it work, but who knows if San Antonio feels the same way?

For the Pacers, this would amount to taking their golden ticket and betting it all on black. If Kawhi left after a year, it would be devastating for the franchise. They would have one year to sell him on what they’re building. A small regression could easily leave him unconvinced.

It shouldn’t matter. A player of Leonard’s caliber becomes available once in a blue moon. Indiana is in the unique position of having a surplus of young assets, albeit at a stacked position around the NBA. At the very least, they’d be wise to pick up the phone and start a conversation.

Next: 2017-18 Week 23 NBA Power Rankings

It could lead to Leonard returning to the team that drafted him seven years ago. The Pacers let him go once. They should’t let it happen again.

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