Houston Rockets: Unfavorable first round playoff opponents
The Houston Rockets are an elite team that should advance far in the 2018 NBA Playoffs. However, there are still matchups that could pose problems for Houston.
The Houston Rockets have been so good this season that it’s truly hard to believe there is a “bad” matchup for them in the first round of the playoffs. As I’ve already analyzed, there certainly are some teams that if matched up against Houston in the first round, would make James Harden, Chris Paul and company lick their lips in excitement.
However, there can still be matchups that will test the Rockets and potentially wear them down early in the playoffs, which wouldn’t be ideal for a team with such lofty playoff expectations.
It’s extremely important to note that this isn’t your prototypical Rockets team that simply relies on fast-paced, high-octane offense and 3-point shooting to win games. If you read or hear anything analyzing the Rockets and their chances in the playoffs that continues to use the cliche that “offense only” teams can’t win in the playoffs, it’s best you just click away, because that isn’t what the Rockets are this season.
Houston does indeed have the league’s No. 1 offense (per Cleaning The Glass, which excludes garbage time statistics), but it also owns the league’s seventh-ranked defense. The Rockets cause turnovers at an above league-average rate, prevent teams from grabbing offensive rebounds, and keep teams off the free throw line, which are three key components of a strong defense.
Additionally, the Rockets aren’t a typical Mike D’Antoni-led team in that they don’t play at a fast pace. For the season, Houston owns the 14th ranked pace in the league, which has actually dropped to 29th in the league since Jan. 16. With the Rockets going 24-2 in that stretch, they have proven that they can win slow, grind-it-out games, especially when James Harden and/or Chris Paul are having their usual effective games in isolation.
With that being said, let’s take a look at two potential matchups that could wear down or strike some fear into the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs.
Utah Jazz
Yes, I know the Rockets have won all four games against the Utah Jazz this season, with three of them being very comfortable wins for Houston. And yes, I know the Rockets beat the Jazz at their own game in a grind-it-out defensive battle in Utah on the second night of a back-to-back. However, when looking at the potential first round matchups for the Rockets, the Jazz certainly fall more on the unfavorable matchups side due to their strong defense and coaching.
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For the season, the Jazz own the league’s second-ranked defense. However, in that same time frame since Jan. 16, the Jazz have far and away the league’s best defense, posting a defensive rating of just 96.9. Despite have an average offense during that time, the Jazz have the league’s second-best net rating (+11.4) and have gone 22-4 during that stretch.
Rudy Gobert is such a valuable defensive player that he can singlehandedly thwart an opposing offense’s game plan. Whether that is by scaring opposing guards such as Harden or Paul from attacking the rim or using his long arms to disrupt pick-and-rolls on the perimeter, Gobert will be a handful for the Rockets offense to deal with.
In Houston’s Feb. 26 win in Utah, Mike D’Antoni countered by throwing out a super-small lineup that included Luc Mbah a Moute at center, which allowed him to expose Gobert and score 15 points in just the fourth quarter alone. Expect to see a lot of small-ball if the Rockets match up with the Jazz in the first round, but also expect to see a Jazz team that will steal a game out of nowhere using tough defense and creative coaching.
San Antonio Spurs
Sure, there are Rockets fans that are wishing for this matchup to happen in the first round. Why wouldn’t they want their healthy and motivated team take advantage of a depleted San Antonio Spurs team and knock them out early in the playoffs? However, the Spurs should never be counted out, especially if they are able to get Kawhi Leonard anywhere close to 100 percent before a potential series starts.
It is no secret that the Spurs have been struggling recently. Unlike the Jazz and Rockets, San Antonio is just 10-14 since Jan.16, and they own just the 12th-best net rating during that stretch. In fact, with their upcoming daunting schedule, it’s certainly possible the Spurs miss the playoffs altogether if they don’t get Leonard back.
Of course, the Rockets have easily won the first three games of the season series between the two, as Chris Paul has feasted on the open mid-range shots that the Spurs give up in their defensive scheme when playing Houston.
Despite this, if the Spurs can get reasonably healthy, Kawhi Leonard is the best perimeter defender in the league, and like Rudy Gobert, can completely foil an offensive game plan. For a Rockets team that relies so heavily on isolation scoring, James Harden and Chris Paul won’t be happy to look across and see Leonard and Danny Green guarding them.
Next: 2017-18 Week 22 NBA Power Rankings
While the Rockets have another star in Paul and are much better defensively than they were in the second round series against San Antonio last season, the Spurs are still a team that can push Houston and wear them out in the first round of the playoffs, making them an unfavorable matchup for the Rockets.