The lineup that could take the Indiana Pacers to new heights
The Indiana Pacers continue to be the NBA’s biggest surprise. Here’s a simple lineup adjustment they can make to kick things up another notch.
It’s been all fun and games so far for the Indiana Pacers. They’ve had the luxury to be loosey-goosey for four months, what with expectations having beens so low. Now, things are about to get real.
The Pacers are 23 games away from the gauntlet that is the NBA Playoffs. They’ve made sure to stick to consistent rotations and play mostly conventional lineups (nowhere clearer than by their reluctance to give the Myles Turner/Domantas Sabonis combo extended minutes).
All that has to go by the wayside now. “Pretty good” isn’t good enough in the postseason. If this were all the Pacers were capable of, that would be one thing.
We’ve already discussed the most obvious and fruitful change the Pacers can make, but benching Turner for Sabonis doesn’t appear to be in the plans anytime soon. If anything, Indiana would be wise to give some of Turner’s minutes to his backup, especially with Oladipo on the court – himself in the midst of a legendary season.
There is, however, one other lineup change that the Pacers could employ that won’t require doing anything nearly as drastic. Unsurprisingly, it fits conveniently in with the trend that’s been defining the league for a few years: going small.
Lightning in a bottle
Getting lost down the rabbit hole of the NBA.com lineups page is always dangerous. Nothing is better than seeing a tweet lambasting a coach for failing to play Lineup X more because it has a +45.7 net rating, only to discover that said lineup has graced the court for a grand total of 18 minutes and hit 11-of-13 shots from deep. It’s small sample size theater at its finest.
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With that being said, there’s a fine line between unsustainable and legitimately terrifying. Once upon a time, units with Draymond Green at center were little more than a fad. After a couple hundred minutes together, the Death Lineup was officially a thing.
The Pacers don’t appear to have anything that potent on their hands, but it’s interesting to note that of the 67 three-man units who have played at least 100 minutes together, the top-two by net rating feature a third ball-handler.
In 127 minutes together, Oladipo, Darren Collison and Cory Joseph have a net rating of +19.8, while the starting backcourt plus Lance Stephenson is outscoring opponents by a whopping 25.4 points per 100 possessions in 107 minutes of court time.
Something may be brewing.
Why it’s working
There are two commonalities between the trios.
First, they each have a true shooting percentage bordering on 60 percent, which is outstanding. Notably, a third combination of Collison, Joseph and Stephenson has a true shooting percentage over 61 percent, but struggles to defend, giving up a horrific 118.4 points per 100 possessions.
This is where the second commonality comes in. Of those 67 three-man units, the top two in steals per 36 minutes are the Oladipo/Collison/Joseph and Oladipo/Collison/Stephenson combos. Unsurprisingly, Oladipo himself is second in the league in steals per game.
Is anything unsustainable about what these units are doing? The only thing that pops out is that Lance’s triumvirate is shooting 47.5 percent on 3s. That’s high, but Collison is elite from long range and Stephenson is above 40 percent from the corners, according to Cleaning The Glass. Put it this way: Even if they regress a bit, it’s still an option worth trying out.
The reasoning for the success of both seems simple: Speed and shooting wins in 2018. The Pacers are miles better in defensive efficiency since Oladipo returned from injury in early January — sixth in the league over that time. The small lineups also seem to juice an offense that has been borderline elite all season.
If nothing else, it’s worth it for Nate McMillan to experiment some more with small ball over the season’s last six weeks. The Pacers already figure to be a scary first round opponent for someone.
Next: NBA Rookie of the Year ladder, Week 20
Going small could make them far more than just a chic upset pick.