The Indiana Pacers duo that's secretly tearing up the NBA

After a slow season in Oklahoma City, Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis have quietly been performing as well as almost any pair of teammates in the NBA.

The use of advanced stats in the NBA is like Valentine’s Day.

Some people are all about it, expect you to be all about it, and will make you sleep on the couch if your level of being all about it isn’t up to the standard that they’ve secretly set for themselves but also expected you to know, even though they totally never said anything about it.

Other people find it to be a useless exercise for those who aren’t really that smart / in love to show everyone else in the world and Facebook and you over there in the corner of the restaurant (yes, you) how smart and in love they actually are.

Even the most curmudgeonly fellow would agree that A) a box of chocolates every now and then never hurt anyone and B) some advanced stats are undeniably useful because they go along with everything else we know and understand about basketball.

One of those advanced stats is net rating for lineups. These measure how many points certain combinations of players outscore their opponents by (or get outscored by) per 100 possessions when they share the court.

Does it pass the eye test? Let’s check.

A useful tool

Knowing nothing else about the NBA, if someone asked which duos have been the best this season, a casual fan might guess Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant, since they’re the best two players on the best team in the league.

Checking the data, sure enough, they rank eighth out of 250 qualified pairs and tied for first among duos that have played at least 1,000 minutes together, outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per 100 possessions.

Surrounding them in the top 20 are, unsurprisingly, several other combinations of players from the Golden State Warriors and the also amazing Houston Rockets. In addition, there are three Toronto Raptor pairs (each of their stars with rookie OG Anunoby, who’s really freaking good), four Joel Embiid-centered pairings, and one duo from the sneaky good Indiana Pacers sporting a +11.3 net rating.

If you’re thinking that it’s emerging superstar Victor Oladipo and much-hyped young big man Myles Turner, you’re half right. The combo in question does feature Oladipo and a stellar young big.

It just isn’t Turner.

The dynamic duo

Domantas Sabonis hasn’t gotten nearly the attention as the other half of Indiana’s return in the Paul George trade, but make no mistake: The Pacers have been every bit as pleased with him as they have with their All-Star shooting guard.

Doing the little things

Understanding why Oladipo-led units have been so much more effective on the defensive end with Sabonis in place of Turner (a pairing that has a good but not great +5.5 net rating) requires looking at what specific things the team does differently when each big man shares the floor with their star guard.

For starters, via CleaningtheGlass.com we know that the Pacers hemorrhage rebounds on the offensive glass when Turner is the center next to Oladipo, ranking in the bottom 10 percent of the league by letting opponents grab 28.4 percent of their own misses. Units with Sabonis in his place still aren’t great, giving up an offensive rebound rate of 26.1, but that’s still within shouting distance of the league-average.

The other big difference on defense is with the opponent’s effective field goal percentage. Lineups with Turner and Oladipo allow teams to shoot a near league-average 52.2 percent, while those with Sabonis and Oladipo are in the 83rd percentile of the league, giving up just a 50 effective field goal percentage.

Both of these stats point to Sabonis being just a bit crisper on both ends at little things like boxing out and sticking with his man.

On offense, units with Turner actually shoot better than those with Sabonis, but get outscored on average thanks again to offensive rebounds. Sabonis and co. grab nearly 27 percent of Indiana misses, which is in the top 30 percent of the NBA. With Turner in his place, that number plummets to 21.4 percent, which is in the bottom-10 percent of units league-wide.

Implications

All of these numbers point to the fact that Oladipo should be spending at least as much time with his former Thunder teammate as he does with the former Texas Longhorn.

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It hasn’t been the case. Although their total time on the court together is about the same (Oladipo has 843 minutes with Sabonis to 910 with Turner), it’s trending in the wrong direction. Since Turner returned to the starting lineup on Jan. 31 after being out for a few weeks with a sprained right elbow, his minutes with Oladipo have more than doubled those of Sabonis, 165 to 71.

The team is 5-2 during that stretch (with one of the losses coming on a night Oladipo sat out) so no one is complaining. Four of their next eight games also come against league doormats in Atlanta and Dallas, so it may be hard to determine what, if any, adverse affect the distribution of playing time will have.

Still, as Indiana makes its charge to the playoffs, it’d be wise to take a closer look at the evidence. Turner will be eligible to sign a massive contract extension this summer, making him the highest-paid player on the team. He’d also be an incredibly valuable trade chip if they ever decided to put him on the market.

These are all things to keep in mind as the Pacers enter what everyone figures will be a quiet offseason.

Next: 2017-18 Week 18 NBA Power Rankings

Maybe they should surprise everyone and make a little bit of unexpected noise.

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The Indiana Pacers duo that’s secretly tearing up the NBA

By Jonathan Macri | Feb 15, 2018