Indiana Pacers: The Milwaukee Bucks trade that almost makes too much sense
The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks each feel great about their young cores, but there’s one trade that could but both teams over the top.
The great thing about writing for a fan-based website is that unlike scribing for a national media outlet, you’re not as upheld by the boundaries of actual news and instead can speculate a little bit on things that might otherwise be considered too farfetched to give credence to.
(Checks ESPN.com…sees story about LeBron James possibly going to the Golden State Warriors…stares up from laptop…)
OK then! Well, as long as we’re all taking the visit to Crazy Town together, let’s have a look at one deal that may not actually happen, but makes too much sense not to consider.
A Bucks building block?
On Friday night, Jabari Parker played his first game for the Milwaukee Bucks in nearly a year. He had 12 points and three rebounds in 15 minutes as the Bucks defeated the Knicks, 92-90. He generally looked comfortable, and attempted one dunk that made it look like he was already back in midseason form.
Despite the positive signs in his first game back, the handwringing about Parker’s long-term fit alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t figure to go away. As ESPN’s Zach Lowe has pointed out several times, much of that is overblown. Much like in life, talent finds a way.
Well…talent accompanied by shooting, that is.
On offense, the Bucks figure to be fine playing Jabari and the Greek Freak alongside one another as long as Parker’s range and accuracy -– 36 percent from 3-point range on 3.5 attempts per game last season — continues to progress. With Thon Maker’s shooting (down to 32 percent from deep this year, but 38 percent on corner 3s, according to CleaningTheGlass.com) not great but respectable enough, the Bucks can even play with a traditional center on the floor.
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The problem is on the other end. If Antetokounmpo and Parker play the forward spots, Jabari will inevitably be left guarding the perimeter – something he’s thus far struggled mightily with. If the Bucks play without a nominal center, Giannis will be left guarding the rim, preventing him from wrecking havoc elsewhere on the court, which figures to be the way Milwaukee eventually achieves its peak defensive optimization.
Does this alone mean you give up on the idea of Parker in a Bucks uniform? Of course not. Teams have figured out far lesser lineup conundrums than this, and Milwaukee figures to bring in a top-notch coach in the offseason.
This isn’t the only issue though. As Lowe pointed out, Parker sees himself as a max player, and in October he rebuffed the front office’s attempts to sign him to an extension at an annual salary of around $18 million. Reading between the lines, it’s also pretty clear that the former Blue Devil holds himself in the rarified air of the NBA’s best.
How will that play out in an organization that already has not only their clear numero uno in the pecking order, but maybe the most prominent figure in the entire league?
The Bucks don’t necessarily have to wait around to find out. They would never sell low on Parker – that would amount to organizational malfeasance no matter what the internal issues were – but what if they could get back another young star on the rise, just one who fits better given their individual components?
Enter the Indiana Pacers.
Too much of a good thing?
It’s an understatement to say that the Pacers have found themselves in a much better place than anyone expected.
Indiana entered the summer with one young core piece in Myles Turner and one disgruntled cornerstone in Paul George. They now have a franchise player who’s thrilled to be back in his home state in Victor Oladipo and an additional core player to boot: Son of Arvydas, Domantas Sabonis.
The only problem now is that Sabonis and Turner, who are both natural centers in today’s NBA, don’t seem to be compatible with one another. Sure, they both theoretically have range that extends to the 3-point line, but neither profiles as the type of floor-spacer who is best served permanently camped out on the perimeter — at least not if having an elite offense is the goal. The more they share the court, the more one will need to leave their comfort zone down low.
The Pacers are 4-1 since Turner returned from his latest injury, but the pair has only played 13 minutes together over those games, including zero in Indiana’s Saturday night win over Philadelphia. On the season, they have shared the court for an average of just 6.2 minutes per night and are a net negative during that time. Head coach Nate McMillan has spoken of getting the pair more time together, but it’s clearly not a natural fit.
Like Milwaukee, Indiana is not going to deal a promising player still on his rookie contract just because they’re unsure of the fit moving forward. They would only do so if they got back another young piece that they felt could be a part of their long-term core.
Enter the Bucks.
A perfect swap?
Both teams would have serious hesitations about a Jabari Parker-for-Myles Turner swap at first.
On Indiana’s side, aside from the Pacers being a notoriously conservative organization that has anything but a quick trigger (see George, Paul), with Turner, they not only have a known quantity, but one who hasn’t yet reached his ceiling. While the big man’s play has plateaued a bit this year, he’s still among the lead leaders in blocks (a deceiving statistic when measuring defensive effectiveness, but still) and his range has continued to expand. “Future All-Star” is still a perfectly reasonable expected outcome.
That’s still nowhere close to what Parker could become, which is exactly why Milwaukee would be so hesitant to give up on him before seeing him spend significant time with the version of Giannis that we’re seeing this year. The ceiling of that pairing could be earth-shattering.
Parker also could never fully recover from his second major knee injury in three years.
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Both teams would be taking a gamble by making such a move. Still, it’s at least worth noting that each would make a far more seamless fit on the other team’s roster.
For starters, the Pacers have played better with Domantas Sabonis manning the middle than they have with Turner. According to CleaningtheGlass.com, Sabonis-at-center lineups are outscoring opponents by 3.8 points per 100 possessions, while lineups anchored by Turner are just +1.4.
It’s tantalizing to imagine what Parker could do in an offense that’s already the sixth-best in the NBA. While Thaddeus Young is an underrated player who does a lot to help his team, inserting a healthy Parker into that power forward spot would take an already efficient unit up another level.
For the Bucks, Thon Maker hasn’t taken the leap many expected he would following his mini-breakout last season. Myles Turner is a similar specimen – an athletic, rangy big who can expand the court and offer a decent amount of rim protection. Thon might get there some day, but the clock on the Freak’s free agency has already started ticking down. With LeBron possibly departing this summer and the supporting cast in their primes, there’s an argument to be made that Milwaukee doesn’t have the luxury of waiting around to see if Maker gets back on track.
As for the money, it’s pretty much a wash. Turner is still a year away from restricted free agency, but you’d figure the Pacers would want to lock him up on his next contract pretty soon after the clock strikes midnight on July 1, 2018, so it’s not like they’re bypassing long-term savings.
If addition, inking Parker would make Thaddeus Young somewhat expendable. If Indiana has to pay both Young and Turner, it makes finding an upgrade at point guard – where Darren Collison is currently holding down the fort – that much tougher down the line.
If nothing else, a swap makes a ton of sense on paper. With neither franchise being a free agent destination, this could be their best opportunity to upgrade a position of need.
Next: 2018 NBA Draft big board: End of January
Whether two organizations who are loath to upset the apple cart actually make a move is a different story altogether.