Indiana Pacers: What’s their ceiling in 2017-18?

The Indiana Pacers have surprised everyone with their 29-23 record so far this season, but just how far can this team go in 2017-18?

The Indiana Pacers came into the season with very modest expectations, but their play over the first 52 regular season games has changed all that.

Victor Oladipo has quickly developed into an NBA All-Star, Domantas Sabonis has become a force off the bench and a productive fill-in starter, and the club has adopted a team-first mindset that has them contending for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

Now that Indiana has shown that their rebuild is way ahead of schedule, fans and media are adjusting their expectations for this team and wondering just how far the Pacers can climb come playoff time.

As we’ve recently discussed in this space, Indiana is strong on the offensive end of the floor, but defense and rebounding continue to hold them back from reaching that next level.

The Pacers are currently sixth in the NBA in offensive rating (108.2), but they are 15th in defensive rating (106.2) and 21st in rebound percentage with a mark of 49.3. Indiana is particularly weak on the defensive boards, ranking 26th in the league in defensive rebound percentage (76.1).

The Pacers have played very good defense at times this season, but inconsistency has caused them to be an average defensive team overall — they are simply not tied together as a unit often enough on that end of the court.

Short of a change in personnel, there is not much the team can do to improve their woeful rebounding as their entire starting front line (Myles Turner, Thaddeus Young and Bojan Bogdanovic) is manned by minus rebounders.

Two of the club’s best rebounders, Domantas Sabonis and Lance Stephenson, normally come off the bench. Nate McMillan could give them more playing time, but that would cause other problems and ultimately would not be a solution in terms of making the team better.

FiveThirtyEight predicts that Indiana will end the regular season with a 44-38 record and finish in a tie for sixth place in the Eastern Conference.

Both the record and placement within the conference are about right; the Pacers don’t appear to have the ammunition at this point to earn home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Once the playoffs begin, Indiana’s prospects don’t seem to be very strong. They will likely be matched up against one of the top three seeds in the East in the first round, and pulling an upset over one of those teams in a seven-game series would be a very tall order.

The Pacers have what it takes to play a very competitive series against even the best teams in the Eastern Conference, but winning four games in such a series is another matter altogether.

Rebounding, defense and a lack of playoff experience (especially individual playoff experience in new and larger roles within the team) will be their downfall.

Look for Indiana to end the regular season with a win total in the low-to-mid 40s and a playoff seed in the 6-8 range. They will bow out in the first round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs, but they will give whoever they play a tough series in defeat.

Next: 2018 NBA Draft big board: End of January

These projected results may not sound very exciting, but when you frame this by going back seven months to the Paul George trade and all the gloom and doom that was predicted for this team, these outcomes would represent a tremendous first season for the new-look Indiana Pacers.