Building a legitimate MVP case for Victor Oladipo
Victor Oladipo has jumped into the national spotlight following the Paul George trade. Has he done enough to be part of the MVP discussion?
Is it time to reconsider how we refer to the deal that sent Paul George to the Oklahoma City Thunder?
I mean, Paul George is having a phenomenal year, got legitimately snubbed from the 2018 NBA All-Star Game (although he’s since been added following the DeMarcus Cousins injury), and is talking like he wants to stay in OKC long-term.
Still…we kind of have to start calling it the Victor Oladipo trade, don’t we?
Think for a second: Has any one player single-handedly changed the course of a franchise more than Oladipo this season? Donovan Mitchell has an argument, and Joel Embiid staying healthy has been huge, but neither player spearheaded the type of franchise-altering 180 that Victor has.
Before the season started, the biggest question in Indiana was whether the Pacers could be bad enough to sneak into the top five of the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery. Thanks to Oladipo, they’re fighting for a home playoff series.
It’s enough that we at least need to mention Oladipo’s name as MVP conversations start to ramp up.
Can he actually win the MVP? Well…no. Not unless semi-serious injuries befall James Harden, LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant sometime between now and mid-April.
So then what do we mean when we say “legitimate” MVP case? That’s simple: Voters get five spots on their ballot. If a case can be made that a player deserves one of the five spots, they have a legit case. Sounds feasible for Oladipo, given Indiana’s success and his own numbers, no?
It’s not quite that simple.
A shot at the top?
Let get the behemoths out of the way right off the bat.
Could you argue Oladipo deserves a spot on the ballot more than any of the frontrunners? Maybe LeBron, just because of all the general Cavs-related tomfoolery floating around the ether these days, and the fact that 85 percent of the time, James is only trying on one end of the court.
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Still, according to Basketball-Reference.com, LeBron is on pace to become the first player in history to put up a 26-8-7 season while sporting at least a true shooting percentage of 62 percent. He’s going to get first place votes.
As for Harden and Durant, although each has a superstar running mate to help lighten the load, they both have carried their teams by themselves for enough time this season to remind voters of their individual greatness.
The Warriors are going to win in the high 60s again, and while Durant may not be their most important player, his two-way brilliance has people talking about a spot on the All-Defense team. He’s also played seven more games than Steph Curry, ensuring that he’ll get the majority of the Golden State vote (for now).
Harden, despite his recent absence, is still the frontrunner thanks to video game numbers on a cheat code setting. He’s leading the league in points and is third in assists for the team with the second-best record in the NBA. Let’s move on.
The other contenders…
That leaves two spots, and two very high profile young players who figure to be ahead of Oladipo in the running.
Six weeks into the season, Giannis Antetokounmpo wasn’t just an MVP candidate – he was the leader after the first 18 holes of play.
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More than halfway through the year, the Greek Freak’s numbers haven’t changed all that much; he’s still second in the league in both Player Efficiency Rating and scoring and has the second-highest field goal percentage (behind LeBron) among players who don’t exclusively exist in the post.
Antetokounmpo also gets helped by the fact that his team falls apart when he’s not on the floor. The Bucks outscore opposing teams by 5.0 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court, but get blasted by 8.7 points per 100 when he’s off.
Unfortunately for Giannis, players on teams that exist on the fringes of the playoff race tend to get penalized quite a bit when it comes to individual awards. Russell Westbrook won it last year after the Thunder grabbed the 6-seed, but with a better than decent 47 wins. Milwaukee is on pace for 45. In an MVP race, a couple of wins can make a world of difference.
The other presumptive occupant for one of the last two spots on the ballot is Anthony Davis, who is putting together his best all-around season. All the counting stats are there: He’s fourth in scoring, fifth in PER, and eighth in both rebounds and field goal percentage.
For the advanced stat crowd, his 62.9 true shooting percentage is tied with LeBron James and second to Curry among players with at least a 25 usage rate, and there is an 8.9 point difference per 100 possessions between how his team performs when he’s on the court vs. when he’s off. The Boogie injury will only help AD’s case.
Like the Bucks though, the Pelicans are on pace to go a ho-hum 45-37 – the exact same record New Orleans had when Davis finished fifth in MVP voting in 2015.
These two would appear to have a slight edge of Oladipo, but he does have one argument squarely in his favor.
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There is on area in particular where Oladipo blows away the rest of the crowd: On/off differential between when he plays and when he doesn’t.
Remember Giannis’ +5.0/-8.7 difference in net rating? That’s nothing compared to what Oladipo does for the Pacers.
When Vic is playing, Indiana outscores its opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions, which would be second-best mark in the league behind the Warriors. The next closest Pacer is Thad Young, whose on court net rating is a distant +4.6.
Without Oladipo to carry the load, the Pacers get treated like the proverbial rag doll, except if the rag doll said something really offensive about your mom, your sister, your wife and your daughter before you got ahold of it. They are getting trounced by 8.8 points per 100 possessions sans their star guard.
That number would be worse than every NBA team except the Kings. In other words, its worse than every NBA team.
No other contender for the award comes close to the 16.4 point differential that highlights Oladipo’s candidacy. After Antetokounmpo’s 13.7, next up are Davis’ 8.9, Harden’s 3.6, Durant’s 3.0, and finally LeBron, whose Cavs are actually better by 1.6 points per 100 possessions when he doesn’t play.
There’s no way to overstate the impressiveness of this singular statistic. It essentially tells us that Oladipo is taking a group of players who would appear to be doing a Keystone Cops routine when he’s not out there and elevating them to contender-status when he is.
In making the case for Westbrook last season, many pundits used the Thunder’s ineptitude without Russ as their first talking point. His on/off difference was +12.2 — nowhere near Oladipo’s this season.
Going hand in hand with this number is the Pacers’ record when Oladipo plays. They are 28-18 when he’s in the lineup, which is a winning percentage that would give them a top-eight record in the NBA. Without Oladipo? Indiana is 0-5, with four of the five losses coming by double digits.
Other possibilities
If it just came down to Oladipo and the players we’ve already discussed, he’d have at least a 50/50 shot to get in over either Antetokounmpo or Davis (or even James, should the Cavs’ slide continue). Unfortunately for him, there are several other players trying to nudge themselves into the race.
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If Oladipo’s on/off numbers are the driving force behind his campaign, Joel Embiid may have an argument as well. The Sixers are 15.1 points better per 100 possessions with Embiid on the floor, and are 22-15 when he plays compared to 2-8 when he doesn’t.
Embiid’s individual stats are also comparable to Oladipo’s, with a 23.1 PER compared to Victor’s 23.8. Victor’s case also hinges on his defense, but Embiid is one of the few contenders for the last few spots who means even more to his team on that end of the floor than Dipo.
Then there’s his old buddy Russell Westbrook. His on/off stats are even better than last year (a 13-point difference) and he’s once again doing everything for a Thunder team surging up the standings. Oladipo is the far more efficient scorer than Westbrook, and isn’t flanked by another All-Star. Still, Westbrook is starting to look like a guy who’s challenging everyone to pry the championship belt from his cold, dead hands. He’s not going away.
A crowded field
Several other names have a legitimate shot at one of the last few spots, if not even higher.
Kyrie Irving may not be the most important player on the best team in the East (ahem, Al Horford, ahem), but he’s the most prominent force behind their season in the minds of voters. Jimmy Butler has also left no doubt that the Minnesota Timberwolves are his team, while DeMar DeRozan has taken yet another leap for a Raptors squad that is nipping at Boston’s heels.
LaMarcus Aldridge’s game has less flash than any candidate, but he’s the best player on a top-five team. Like Oladipo, he also doesn’t have the benefit of playing with another All-Star thanks to Kawhi Leonard’s injury situation.
Oh, and then there’s Steph Curry. All he’s doing is putting up comparable stats to his first MVP season in 2014-15 for the best team in the league. There’s a very real possibility both he and Kevin Durant end up in the top five, even with Curry having missed 15 games.
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So like most things in the NBA at this time of year, the answer to the Oladipo question is an unsatisfying “too soon to tell.” This much is clear though: If he keeps up what he’s doing, he’ll at least be in the conversation until the very end.